Back in November, when I was with Citigroup, I projected that GCC members would face deficits this year, the first time since the current oil boom began in 2003.
At that time, oil had just dipped below the US$50-a-barrel level and was already down two thirds in just four months. There was, understandably, some consternation. Indeed, compared with surpluses that were expected for last year when all the accounts were in, the projected deficits in the region would amount to quite a turnaround. And here we are today staring at fiscal deficits throughout the region.
But this is not about being prescient. The important issue is whether deficits really matter. The answer is, no. Not for members of the GCC, anyway.
One thing must be clearly understood: deficits are "bad" because they require financing; particularly when financing involves borrowing. This is a challenge for most countries, especially in today's environment where funding has dried up substantially.
For this reason, financial analysts have been trained to look at deficits with suspicion. They ask: "Will a country with a fiscal deficit be able to finance subsequent deficits?"; or, "is the external deficit more binding than the fiscal imbalance?"; or, "are domestic policies providing comfort to foreign and domestic financiers?"
None of this is a real issue for the GCC. Since deficits are a problem only when financing is scarce and the imbalance is likely to persist, the GCC can easily brush it off.
Firstly, the sovereign wealth funds (SWF) maintained by member countries, especially the established ones such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) and Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) that have slowly built up funds from past savings, can easily underwrite all the financing required.
Secondly, with oil prices edging up and likely to stay firm (keeping in mind the intrinsic value of oil as the primary source of energy in the global economy), the deficits this year should become surpluses next year.
In fact, oil prices have already seen the worst of the global economic crisis and should now find their fair value in the remaining part of this year. What that level should be is open to interpretation, of course.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia feels this should be a price of about $75 a barrel. On an average basis, we might find that the price could be between $60 and $65 a barrel.
In the arcane world of economics, there is something called the "permanent income hypothesis". According to this, rational economic agents will base consumption over the income stream they expect in their lifetime.
On this basis, members of the GCC should continue to spend on diversification of their economies, irrespective of the temporary deficits that are created. In other words, they should not be scared off from investing.
For even if the deficits are financed by borrowing - and not the deep pockets of SWFs - foreign lenders will not think twice in view of the massive hydrocarbon reserves this region has.
Furthermore, since the GCC has already captured global attention for its sustained high growth, foreign lenders will also value the partnership of working with GCC governments.
But as with all things, there is a catch. The spectacular economic growth in Dubai is very different from growth in economies such as those of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, for example.
There is also differences in the hydrocarbon endowment. While Dubai remains the most diversified economy in the region and also provides the UAE its status as a financial centre, it is sometimes viewed as a separate entity in the eyes of foreign analysts and investors. Hence, deficits could matter.
This raises a set of questions: Will revenues bounce back as oil prices rise?; is the repayment capacity an issue - or do SWFs make this irrelevant?; and how dependent is domestic growth on the global economy?
If the answers are, respectively, "yes", "no", and "not much", then deficits are not an issue. For those economies that answer differently, however, their profile would tend to be less like that of the GCC generally.
Part of the uncertainty about Dubai's economy revolves around this issue. Abu Dhabi is definitely a typical GCC economy, having as it does large oil reserves and a large SWF profile. Although dependency in oil often is perceived as a structural weakness, under the current circumstances, it is almost a saviour.
Therefore, the question about deficits is really an issue of oil revenues, with the underlying assumption that oil is - and will remain - a very precious commodity. By this understanding, however, Dubai is seen to have limited oil and is more vulnerable, but it also has indirect support from Abu Dhabi.
And from what can be seen from the role the UAE Central Bank has played in underwriting Dubai's bond issue, this should allow Dubai to ride the GCC recovery as oil prices firm up and deficits turn to surpluses.
So to pose the question again, do deficits matter? It depends. But in the case of the GCC, even with economic and oil endowment variations, they do not pose such a worry after all.
Mushtaq Khan is an independent economist, and was previously with Citigroup and ABN AMRO Bank. He was also an economic adviser at Pakistan's central bank.
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
THE LIGHT
Director: Tom Tykwer
Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger
Rating: 3/5
2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWomen%E2%80%99s%20race%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Tigist%20Ketema%20(ETH)%202hrs%2016min%207sec%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Ruti%20Aga%20(ETH)%202%3A18%3A09%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Dera%20Dida%20(ETH)%202%3A19%3A29%0D%3Cbr%3EMen's%20race%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Addisu%20Gobena%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A01%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lemi%20Dumicha%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A20%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20DejeneMegersa%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A42%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Match info
Athletic Bilbao 0
Real Madrid 1 (Ramos 73' pen)
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
THE%20STRANGERS'%20CASE
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
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FULL%20FIGHT%20CARD
%3Cp%3EFeatherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Abdullah%20Al%20Qahtani%20v%20Taha%20Bendaoud%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Ali%20Taleb%20v%20Nawras%20Abzakh%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Xavier%20Alaoui%20v%20Rachid%20El%20Hazoume%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Islam%20Reda%20v%20Adam%20Meskini%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Tariq%20Ismail%20v%20Jalal%20Al%20Daaja%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Elias%20Boudegzdame%20v%20Hassan%20Mandour%0D%3Cbr%3EAmateur%20Female%20Atomweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Hattan%20Al%20Saif%20v%20Nada%20Faheem%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Maraoune%20Bellagouit%20v%20Motaz%20Askar%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Ahmed%20Tarek%20v%20Abdelrahman%20Alhyasat%0D%3Cbr%3EShowcase%20Featherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Mido%20Mohamed%20v%20Yazeed%20Hasanain%0D%3Cbr%3EShowcase%20Flyweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Malik%20Basahel%20v%20Harsh%20Pandya%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Tips%20for%20travelling%20while%20needing%20dialysis
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EInform%20your%20doctor%20about%20your%20plans.%C2%A0%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAsk%20about%20your%20treatment%20so%20you%20know%20how%20it%20works.%C2%A0%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPay%20attention%20to%20your%20health%20if%20you%20travel%20to%20a%20hot%20destination.%C2%A0%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPlan%20your%20trip%20well.%C2%A0%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
More on Coronavirus in France
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Profile of VoucherSkout
Date of launch: November 2016
Founder: David Tobias
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers
Sector: Technology
Size: 18 employees
Stage: Embarking on a Series A round to raise $5 million in the first quarter of 2019 with a 20 per cent stake
Investors: Seed round was self-funded with “millions of dollars”
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Afro%20salons
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Homie%20Portal%20LLC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20End%20of%202021%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Kamda%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2014%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELaunch%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Porsche Macan T: The Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 265hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,800-4,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Speed: 0-100kph in 6.2sec
Top speed: 232kph
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
On sale: May or June
Price: From Dh259,900
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The Energy Research Centre
Founded 50 years ago as a nuclear research institute, scientists at the centre believed nuclear would be the “solution for everything”.
Although they still do, they discovered in 1955 that the Netherlands had a lot of natural gas. “We still had the idea that, by 2000, it would all be nuclear,” said Harm Jeeninga, director of business and programme development at the centre.
"In the 1990s, we found out about global warming so we focused on energy savings and tackling the greenhouse gas effect.”
The energy centre’s research focuses on biomass, energy efficiency, the environment, wind and solar, as well as energy engineering and socio-economic research.
Pathaan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Siddharth%20Anand%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Deepika%20Padukone%2C%20John%20Abraham%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
