Growth is expected to decline 1.3 per cent in emerging markets (EM) in Europe and 0.2 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa due to coronavirus pandemic, the Institute of International Finance said.
A number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly, are likely to be hit by lower demand for oil and other commodities.
“As a result of falling demand around the world, we see commodity prices under substantial pressure in coming months,” the IIF said in a report authored by its deputy chief economist Elina Ribakova, head of CEEMEA research Ugras Ulku and economist Benjamin Hilgenstock.
“For emerging markets, financial channels amplify the already severe global growth and commodity price shocks. With the sudden stop in capital flows, local rates in CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa)—as well as the EM universe as a whole—have increased markedly, even though many central banks cut interest rates in March.”
The IIF said earlier this week it expects global GDP to shrink 1.5 per cent this year, from a previous forecast of growth of 2.6 per cent due to the financial turmoil caused by the outbreak of coronavirus as well as a plunge in oil prices by about 60 per cent since the beginning of this year.
The report said Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), due to its dependence on exports to the Euro area, will be heavily affected by a significant contraction in output in the currency union. As a result, the CEE-4—Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania— are projected to experience GDP declines ranging from 2.5 per cent to 3 per cent in 2020, it said.
“While economic activity in January-February appears to have been unaffected by Covid-19, the outlook for the rest of the year will be challenging. However, financial sector vulnerability is markedly lower compared to the global financial crisis,” it said.
“In Ukraine, we worry about the possibility of a deeper crisis. Recent news of progress in IMF (International Monetary Fund) programme negotiations are encouraging as market access is likely to be significantly curtailed in coming quarters.”
Russia’s economy is expected to shrink by 1.3 per cent this year, which is less than in previous crises in 2009 and 2015. The flexible rouble, central bank credibility, and significant macroeconomic buffers are expected to help insulate the economy.
“Russia’s fiscal policy response is still modest but will need to be stepped up. The possibility of a deeper Covid-19-induced crisis is high, as Russia’s healthcare system is poorly prepared for a pandemic—especially in the regions and following years of expenditure cuts,” the IIF noted.
In South Africa, the institute predicted a GDP decline of 2.5 per cent for 2020 due to “worsening debt dynamics”.
On Turkey, the multilateral lender said the country is likely to maintain positive growth, "despite an estimated sharp output contraction in the second quarter”.
“Growth momentum in Turkey appears to have gained significant speed in early 2020, with high-frequency indicators such as bank lending pointing to a very strong growth performance in the first quarter.”
Countries in sub-Saharan Africa, reliant on commodity exports and facing high debt rollover needs, are particularly exposed to the effects of a global recession and are expected to see a significant decline in output growth.
“The region’s most important trading partners, including China, are experiencing large Covid-19 outbreaks and commodity prices have fallen sharply. This will affect oil exporters such as Nigeria, Ghana, and Angola the most, while economies more insulated from global markets might do better.”
The Covid-19 health crisis represents the biggest challenge to the global economy since the 2008 financial meltdown with at least $20 trillion (Dh73.4tn) having been wiped off stock markets in the past few months.
Worldwide, there are about 488,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus, also known as Covid-19, with more than 22,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University as of Thursday. Nearly 118,000 people have recovered.
Porsche Macan T: The Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 265hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,800-4,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Speed: 0-100kph in 6.2sec
Top speed: 232kph
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
On sale: May or June
Price: From Dh259,900
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Essentials
The flights
Whether you trek after mountain gorillas in Rwanda, Uganda or the Congo, the most convenient international airport is in Rwanda’s capital city, Kigali. There are direct flights from Dubai a couple of days a week with RwandAir. Otherwise, an indirect route is available via Nairobi with Kenya Airways. Flydubai flies to Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, via Entebbe in Uganda. Expect to pay from US$350 (Dh1,286) return, including taxes.
The tours
Superb ape-watching tours that take in all three gorilla countries mentioned above are run by Natural World Safaris. In September, the company will be operating a unique Ugandan ape safari guided by well-known primatologist Ben Garrod.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, local operator Kivu Travel can organise pretty much any kind of safari throughout the Virunga National Park and elsewhere in eastern Congo.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Warlight,
Michael Ondaatje, Knopf
Fixtures (all times UAE)
Saturday
Brescia v Atalanta (6pm)
Genoa v Torino (9pm)
Fiorentina v Lecce (11.45pm)
Sunday
Juventus v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Inter Milan v SPAL (6pm)
Lazio v Udinese (6pm)
Parma v AC Milan (6pm)
Napoli v Bologna (9pm)
Verona v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Monday
Cagliari v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
