Gold meltdown tests miners' nerve



With the price of gold going into meltdown, many mining companies are quaking in their boots.

But Saudi Arabian Mining Company, also known as Ma'aden, had difficulties in making money from its gold-mining operations even when the price of bullion was rising. Famously, Ma'aden recorded a loss of 9.19 million riyals last year, despite the price of gold surging 27.8 per cent that year.

But what now for the company's stock after gold plunged as much as US$208 per troy ounce in a three-day period?

Ironically, the company's large cash deposits from brisk sales of bullion were to blame, after Ma'aden underestimated its Zakat payments, worth 207.3m riyals.

So far this year, the company has performed more favourably. Ma'aden reported profits of 61.9m riyals in the second quarter following a sharp increase in revenue from gold sales. But with the growth in revenues now looking uncertain, the company may need to get to grips with its Zakat provisions sooner rather than later.

"The recent rally in gold prices … coupled with relatively low Zakat provision fed through to an exceptional increase of 100 per cent in net profit," wrote Mazhar Khan, an equity research analyst at Al Rajhi Capital, in a research note.

"Nevertheless, we believe that low provision on Zakat is unsustainable and set to rise."

Ma'aden's ability to profit is likely to hinge upon management's ability to recycle its cash reserves.

Early signs are that the company has been able to do so - Ma'aden has developed a $5.6 billion phosphate joint venture with Saudi Basic Industries Company to produce diammonium phosphate, which is used for a variety of purposes including as fertilisers and fire retardants.

This is now starting to pay off, with recently announced shipments to India. Aluminium production is also expected to start in 2013.

Nevertheless, worth bearing in mind is the fact that in the year to date, gold has been the better investment - even accounting for the plunge of the past few days.

The End of Loneliness
Benedict Wells
Translated from the German by Charlotte Collins
Sceptre

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”