Where does the world's economy go from here? Freed from the cares of statehood, Gordon Brown, the former British prime minister, gave a relaxed and humorous speech on Sunday night at an NYU Abu Dhabi Institute event at Manarat Al Saadiyat, but full of grave concern for the global economy. "We are at a time of momentous choice," he said. "Either we can cooperate or we can retreat into protectionism."
He pointed out there are already signs that some countries are reverting into their own borders. First Switzerland moved unilaterally to weaken its own currency, the Swiss franc. This was followed by India, Indonesia and Japan all taking steps to stop the inexorable strength of their own currencies. Brazil has imposed tariffs on imported cars, while in the US there are moves afoot to have China named as a currency manipulator for deliberately keeping the yuan weak to give it a competitive advantage in exporting.
"There is a new mood of mercantilism," he warned. "There is a growing concern about the direction the world is heading. At one IMF meeting I was struck by a banner that read: Worldwide Campaign Against Globalisation. You can understand what people were trying to say. In France in 2008 they said with even greater desperation: 'No to 2009'. We are seeing marchers in Spain, Brussels and now New York with demonstrations in Wall Street. The politicians have not done well in this crisis."
Mr Brown reminded the audience of the words of a predecessor, Sir Winston Churchill, who derided the inactivity of politicians after the Great Depression. "Churchill said that politicians were resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity and all-powerful for impotence," he said.
Nor did Mr Brown think the bureaucrats behaved any better in that era. John Maynard Keynes, the great English economist, wrote a pamphlet entitled "How We Can Conquer Unemployment". The person in charge of the British Treasury wrote three words on the cover - "Inflation, extravagance, bankruptcy" - and had it filed away in the library.
Today, according to Mr Brown, there are three main problems in Europe, the epicentre of the crisis:
1. A banking crisis. Only in the past few weeks have people realised that Europe's banks are over-leveraged and under-capitalised. They are unable to lend. German banks are leveraged 32 times to their capital, French banks 28 times. In contrast, American banks have only lent 10 times their capital. They failed to recapitalise after 2008 and did not write off enough of their debts. Europe cannot return to growth if it doesn't solve its banking crisis.
2. A fiscal problem. This has occurred in Portugal, Ireland and Spain due partly to the government bailouts of their banking sectors.
3. Not enough growth. Europe's share of the global economy is declining. It used to be 30 per cent and now it is about 18 per cent. It is not able to sell enough to emerging markets. And all this must be solved within the euro. The US has been able to pump money into the system, as has the Bank of England. Only the European Central Bank could do this, but it is reluctant to do so. Euro-zone countries cannot devalue their currencies, as the UK has been able to do. Nor can euro-zone countries run a bigger deficit because that is not allowed under the rules.
The problem with the rest of the world is that they all have the same solution to the crisis: they all want to export their way out of difficulty.
"China, Turkey, Brazil and also the US want to export their way to success," said Mr Brown. "Not everybody can do this because somebody needs to be importing."
For Gordon Brown, the world is at a critical juncture. Ten years ago the US was the driver of the world economy; in 10 or 15 years' time it could be China and Asia. But now we are at a transition point.
How to solve this? The answer lies in global cooperation.
"We could all benefit from higher levels of growth. China and India should open their markets and agree to consume more. The US and Europe should cut their deficits and invest more in their infrastructures."
The setting for this great global agreement will be Cannes in the south of France at the beginning of next month, where the Group of 20 developed and emerging economies is due to convene. "The US has already retreated into its silo and is having an unhealthy preoccupation with either stimulus or cutting the deficit. It needs to take a longer view."
While Mr Brown was putting the case for greater global supervision and cooperation, Angela Merkel, the Germanchancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the president of France, had a bilateral summit in Europe to agree to steps to resolve the euro-zone crisis. Details were sketchy, but they have set a deadline of the G20 meeting in Cannes for a solution, including sorting out Greece's debts and recapitalising the banks. Mr Brown's vision is optimistic, but a call for global financial supervision is likely to go the same way as the climate change talks: precisely nowhere. Expect the world's politicians to dither, ponder and procrastinate for a while yet. Cannes in November might prove to be interesting though, a "sunny place for shady people" as Somerset Maugham once described the Cote d'Azur. For once these shady people might be forced to make a decision.
rwright@thenational.ae
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2015%20PRO%20MAX
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The biog
Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.
Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella
Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Switching%20sides
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
More from Neighbourhood Watch
UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EXare%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJanuary%2018%2C%202021%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPadmini%20Gupta%2C%20Milind%20Singh%2C%20Mandeep%20Singh%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20Raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2410%20million%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E28%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMS%26amp%3BAD%20Ventures%2C%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Astra%20Amco%2C%20the%20Dubai%20International%20Financial%20Centre%2C%20Fintech%20Fund%2C%20500%20Startups%2C%20Khwarizmi%20Ventures%2C%20and%20Phoenician%20Funds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Age: 32
Qualifications: Diploma in engineering from TSI Technical Institute, bachelor’s degree in accounting from Dubai’s Al Ghurair University, master’s degree in human resources from Abu Dhabi University, currently third years PHD in strategy of human resources.
Favourite mountain range: The Himalayas
Favourite experience: Two months trekking in Alaska
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
LEADERBOARD
%3Cp%3E-19%20T%20Fleetwood%20(Eng)%3B%20-18%20R%20McIlroy%20(NI)%2C%20T%20Lawrence%20(SA)%3B%20-16%20J%20Smith%3B%20-15%20F%20Molinari%20(Ita)%3B%20-14%20Z%20Lombard%20(SA)%2C%20S%20Crocker%20(US)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESelected%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E-11%20A%20Meronk%20(Pol)%3B%20-10%20E%20Ferguson%20(Sco)%3B%20-8%20R%20Fox%20(NZ)%20-7%20L%20Donald%20(Eng)%3B%20-5%20T%20McKibbin%20(NI)%2C%20N%20Hoejgaard%20(Den)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
Day 1 results:
Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)
Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Dubai Rugby Sevens
November 30-December 2, at The Sevens, Dubai
Gulf Under 19
Pool A – Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jumeirah College Tigers, Dubai English Speaking School 1, Gems World Academy
Pool B – British School Al Khubairat, Bahrain Colts, Jumeirah College Lions, Dubai English Speaking School 2
Pool C - Dubai College A, Dubai Sharks, Jumeirah English Speaking School, Al Yasmina
Pool D – Dubai Exiles, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Ain Amblers, Deira International School
The bio
His favourite book - 1984 by George Orwell
His favourite quote - 'If you think education is expensive, try ignorance' by Derek Bok, Former President of Harvard
Favourite place to travel to - Peloponnese, Southern Greece
Favourite movie - The Last Emperor
Favourite personality from history - Alexander the Great
Role Model - My father, Yiannis Davos
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
