Germany risks being sucked into Europe's debt crisis after Moody's Investors Service cut the country's credit outlook just hours before key data showed manufacturing output was stalling.
The ratings agency pegged back Germany's creditworthiness to negative from stable amid fears the turmoil in the euro zone is spiralling out of control.
Already Greece, Ireland and Portugal have needed multibillion-euro rescue packages from the European Union and IMF to stay afloat.
As the contagion has spread, borrowing costs for Spain have soared, forcing Madrid to ask for a €100 billion (Dh444.12bn) from the single-currency's bailout fund to prop up its battered banks.
Now Moody's has warned Greece's mounting debt problems are threatening the entire euro-zone project.
"The material risk of a Greek exit from the euro area exposes core countries such as Germany to a risk of shock that is not commensurate with a stable outlook," said the agency. "[It] would set off a chain of financial sector shocks ... that policymakers could only contain at a very high cost."
For Germany, the powerhouse economy in Europe, that would mean picking up most of the bill.
"The continued deterioration in Spain's macro-economic and funding environment [borrowing costs] has increased the risk that they will require some kind of external support," said Moody's.
To underline the problems facing Germany, factory output fell at its fastest pace in three years this month, data showed yesterday, exposing the vulnerability of the country to the turmoil rocking the single currency.
"The German manufacturing sector has been one of the key elements of the euro-zone recovery and to see it contracting at this rate is really quite worrying," said Chris Williamson, the chief economist at Markit, which compiles a purchasing managers' index.
Germany's reading was 43.3 points, a 37-month low and well below the 50-point mark separating contraction from growth. The data also indicated the private sector across the euro zone contracted for a sixth straight month, with a reading of 46.4.
The rate of decline in the euro-zone's peripheral economies was among the highest seen since the middle of 2009, said Mr Williamson.
Capital Economics said the data pointed to a contraction of 1 per cent of GDP this year, with worse to come next year.
"Against this backdrop, it appears inevitable that the debt crisis will deepen and that fears of some form of euro-zone break-up will intensify," said Ben May, the European economist at Capital Economics.
The data triggered a renewed downward swing in equities. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European stocks was down 0.08 per cent at 1,023.48 points in afternoon trading. The euro fell to about US$1.2104. Yields on Spanish five-year government bonds jumped above those on 10-year yields for the first time since June 2001.
Speculation remains the €100bn rescue of Spain's banks may be a precursor for a sovereign bail out, which could be as high as €300bn, according to analysts.
tarnold@thenational.ae
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The five pillars of Islam
THE SPECS – Honda CR-V Touring AWD
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Power: 184hp at 6,400rpm
Torque: 244Nm at 3,900rpm
Transmission: Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
0-100kmh in 9.4 seconds
Top speed: 202kmh
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
Price: From Dh122,900
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The bio
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993
Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE
Marital Status: Single
School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai
University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University
Job Title: Pilot, First Officer
Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200
Number of flights: Approximately 300
Hobbies: Exercising
Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping
Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been
Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
More on animal trafficking
SPECS
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