German boom times running out of steam

For almost two years, Germany's neighbours watched with a mixture of admiration and envy as it enjoyed the biggest economic boom in a generation.

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The country defied the euro-zone debt crisis and stagnation in key foreign markets such as the US.

But the upturn in Europe's largest economy has started to run out of steam, according to the latest corporate profit outlooks and leading sentiment indicators.

The chemicals sector, a barometer of coming economic trends because it supplies a wide variety of industries, has warned that its outlook is deteriorating, due in part to a slowdown in demand from China, which has been crucial to Germany's economic recovery.

BASF, the world's largest chemicals company, saw its share price slump 6 per cent last week after it reported a weakening of turnover growth in the second quarter and predicted that momentum would continue to slow in the second half.

Siemens, the industrial giant, and Lufthansa, the national airline, also disappointed investors with cautious forecasts for the remainder of this year.

In fact, bank analysts have issued a raft of downward revisions of corporate earnings outlooks in recent weeks, following the second-quarter reporting season that failed to live up to expectations, and less optimistic comments from chief executives.

There is an increasing feeling in German boardrooms and on the trading floor of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange that the party is over.

But what a party it has been. In the first quarter of this year , GDP grew 5.2 per cent year-on-year, following growth rates of 3.8, 3.9 and 4.3 per cent in the previous quarters.

Various indicators released in recent weeks have shown business morale declining. The Ifo business climate index for last month fell sharply to its lowest level in nine months and is expected to keep on falling in the coming months.

The ZEW investor sentiment index has also fallen, as has the Markit/BME purchasing managers' index for the German manufacturing sector, based on a monthly survey of some 500 companies, which dropped last month to its weakest level since October 2009.

Corporate executives have cited uncertainty about the outcome of the euro-debt crisis as a key concern, but they are also worried about the slowdown in China's economic growth. China's huge factory sector contracted last month for the first time in a year.

The German recovery was led by surging exports to high-growth emerging economies, especially China, which has had a near unsatiable demand for the products Germany specialises in - high-performance cars and machinery.

Faltering growth will have knock-on effects on the rest of the euro zone, which has relied on its core economies, Germany and France, for growth while the zone's peripheral countries have been struggling with austerity programmes to overcome their debt problems.

As the world's second-biggest exporter after China, Germany's economic fate is closely entwined with the global economy. So the planned US$2.4 trillion (Dh8.4tn) in budget cuts over the coming decade agreed at the 11th hour by the US Congress, and the possibility of a resulting recession in the world's largest economy, is a major cause for concern in Germany.

With emerging markets decelerating, euro-zone economies hamstrung by spending cuts and the US at risk of a downturn, it is not surprising that German companies are bracing themselves for tougher times.

The 30 German blue-chips listed in the Dax stock market index are expected to report 5 per cent profit growth on average for this year, according to bank analysts.

That may sound respectable, but it compares with a 142 per cent surge last year, and the profit growth would be even weaker if it were not for the car makers, which are still enjoying booming exports and are set to lift their profits by a further 20 per cent.

First-quarter GDP growth was so strong that Germany is still likely to achieve 3 per cent growth this year. The question now is how severe the slowdown will be in the coming months and next year.

That will depend not only on developments in China and the US, but on what happens next in the simmering euro debt crisis.

The €109 billion (Dh566.4bn) second bailout package for Greece agreed by EU leaders last month may not be enough. There is a real danger financial markets will target Greece and other ailing economies again soon, causing a renewed outbreak of turbulence.

business@thenational.ae