The year 2015 marked one of the worst years for oil prices and resulting government revenues; the backbone on which most of the GCC economies ride. For the year now taking shape, three main risks loom for the GCC economies: oil’s continuing slide, the draining of liquidity, and China’s slowdown.
Oil: when will this slide end?
Opec member countries produce about 37 per cent of global crude oil, and disagreements over production ceilings have already affected some of the members. Countries, such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Algeria that rely on oil exports are facing widening fiscal and current account deficits, and do not have the luxury of oil surpluses. Even for GCC exporters, assuming a low oil price environment persists, public foreign assets could decline substantially over the next five years, while gross public debt could rise to 59 per cent of GDP.
After clocking more than $1 trillion annually in export revenues during the period 2012-14, GCC economies will experience a 23 per cent fall in export revenues in 2015, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia, which accounts for close to half the estimated $250 billion loss. Lower revenues for the government along with weakening balance sheets could spill over to the broader economy, if the situation persists.
Liquidity crunch: draining resources
In the banking sector, loss of deposit growth from oil revenues coupled with governments drawing down on their savings has led to short-term pressures on the money market, leading to spurts in overnight lending rates. Government borrowing (sovereign bonds) has been on the rise, which could crowd out the private sector and deprive them of credit facilities. GCC sovereign bond issuances during the first nine months of 2015 were worth $47.7bn, which is higher than the recent peak during the previous oil fall in 2009 ($43.0bn), and significantly higher than the whole of 2014 ($2.8bn).
With the US hiking interest rates, rise in government borrowing will make matters difficult for the private sector to grow. Reduced opportunities to lend amid an environment of increasing short-term rates would constrain net interest margins, and subsequently lower profitability for GCC banks. This could in turn affect spending by banks on other areas such as technology, which is vital since the adoption of newer facets of banking such as e-commerce and m-commerce could open doors for tapping the younger generation customers. A proxy to that is the increase in credit default spreads.
The ultimate impact of the fall in liquidity will be on the cost of capital, which will spike. Stock market liquidity as characterised by stock turnover ratio has fallen in the recent past, post the global financial crisis. While positive events such as the inclusion of the UAE and Qatar in the MSCI Emerging Markets index and the announcement of Saudi Arabia opening up its market for direct investment by foreigners contributed to renewed interest and market activity, liquidity continues to be low in GCC market against historical standards.
In the debt markets, weaker bidding by Gulf banks is causing corporate spreads to widen gradually. Wider spreads demanded by bond investors implies a significant deterioration of liquidity in the banking sector, which adversely affects the loan market. Execution of a growing pipeline of deals from the Middle East is under jeopardy because of a toxic combination of reduced local liquidity and limited international interest. While there is a demand for sovereign issues, corporate issues have faced withdrawals after the liquidity dried up in the primary markets.
China: investors on tenterhooks
China accounted for more than $100bn worth of GCC exports during 2014. By 2020, the largest share of GCC exports will go to China, estimated at about $160bn. China will also dominate the GCC import market, providing about $135bn of goods to the GCC by 2020, which is nearly double the value in 2014.
GCC trade with China grew more rapidly during 2010-13 than with any other significant trade partner, at a rate of more than 30 per cent for exports and 17 per cent for imports. The stronger growth in exports, from higher energy prices and rising Chinese demand, caused the GCC’s 2009 trade deficit to turn into a sizeable surplus.
China’s economy is facing multitude of risks, and this is expected to have a domino effect on its trading partners, primarily in the GCC, and global markets at large. China’s borrowing binge after the 2008 global financial crisis has led to burgeoning rise in credit, which stood at 240 per cent of GDP at the end of 2015’s third quarter, up from 125per cent in 2008. Nonperforming loans had already climbed by a record 161tn yuan (Dh89.9tn) and rising credit growth in a period of slow economic growth is magnifying the indebtedness.
How China fares in 2016 will have far-reaching consequences across the globe, and especially in the GCC.
M R Raghu is the managing director of Marmore, a Kuwait-based research house focusing on economies in the Middle East and North Africa
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEdited%20by%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Idries%20Trevathan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20240%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hirmer%20Publishers%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
%3Cp%3E%0DElena%20Rybakina%20(Kazakhstan)%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3EOns%20Jabeur%20(Tunisia)%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3EMaria%20Sakkari%20(Greece)%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3EBarbora%20Krej%C4%8D%C3%ADkov%C3%A1%20(Czech%20Republic)%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3EBeatriz%20Haddad%20Maia%20(Brazil)%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3EJe%C4%BCena%20Ostapenko%20(Latvia)%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3ELiudmila%20Samsonova%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3EDaria%20Kasatkina%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3EVeronika%20Kudermetova%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3ECaroline%20Garcia%20(France)%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3EMagda%20Linette%20(Poland)%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3ESorana%20C%C3%AErstea%20(Romania)%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3EAnastasia%20Potapova%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3EAnhelina%20Kalinina%20(Ukraine)%E2%80%AF%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3EJasmine%20Paolini%20(Italy)%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3EEmma%20Navarro%20(USA)%E2%80%AF%20%0D%3Cbr%3ELesia%20Tsurenko%20(Ukraine)%3Cbr%3ENaomi%20Osaka%20(Japan)%20-%20wildcard%3Cbr%3EEmma%20Raducanu%20(Great%20Britain)%20-%20wildcard%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh359,000
On sale: now
J%20Street%20Polling%20Results
%3Cp%3E97%25%20of%20Jewish-Americans%20are%20concerned%20about%20the%20rise%20in%20anti-Semitism%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E76%25%20of%20US%20Jewish%20voters%20believe%20Donald%20Trump%20and%20his%20allies%20in%20the%20Republican%20Party%20are%20responsible%20for%20a%20rise%20in%20anti-Semitism%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E74%25%20of%20American%20Jews%20agreed%20that%20%E2%80%9CTrump%20and%20the%20Maga%20movement%20are%20a%20threat%20to%20Jews%20in%20America%22%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
PAKISTAN SQUAD
Abid Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Shan Masood, Azhar Ali (test captain), Babar Azam (T20 captain), Asad Shafiq, Fawad Alam, Haider Ali, Iftikhar Ahmad, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Hafeez, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Sarfaraz Ahmed (wicketkeeper), Faheem Ashraf, Haris Rauf, Imran Khan, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Hasnain, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Sohail Khan, Usman Shinwari, Wahab Riaz, Imad Wasim, Kashif Bhatti, Shadab Khan and Yasir Shah.
WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
%3Cp%3EDavid%20White%20might%20be%20new%20to%20the%20country%2C%20but%20he%20has%20clearly%20already%20built%20up%20an%20affinity%20with%20the%20place.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20the%20UAE%20shocked%20Pakistan%20in%20the%20semi-final%20of%20the%20Under%2019%20Asia%20Cup%20last%20month%2C%20White%20was%20hugged%20on%20the%20field%20by%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20the%20team%E2%80%99s%20captain.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EWhite%20suggests%20that%20was%20more%20a%20sign%20of%20Aayan%E2%80%99s%20amiability%20than%20anything%20else.%20But%20he%20believes%20the%20young%20all-rounder%2C%20who%20was%20part%20of%20the%20winning%20Gulf%20Giants%20team%20last%20year%2C%20is%20just%20the%20sort%20of%20player%20the%20country%20should%20be%20seeking%20to%20produce%20via%20the%20ILT20.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20is%20a%20delightful%20young%20man%2C%E2%80%9D%20White%20said.%20%E2%80%9CHe%20played%20in%20the%20competition%20last%20year%20at%2017%2C%20and%20look%20at%20his%20development%20from%20there%20till%20now%2C%20and%20where%20he%20is%20representing%20the%20UAE.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20was%20influential%20in%20the%20U19%20team%20which%20beat%20Pakistan.%20He%20is%20the%20perfect%20example%20of%20what%20we%20are%20all%20trying%20to%20achieve%20here.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20about%20the%20development%20of%20players%20who%20are%20going%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE%20and%20go%20on%20to%20help%20make%20UAE%20a%20force%20in%20world%20cricket.%E2%80%9D%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Omar%20Hilal%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Muhammad%20Farrag%2C%20Bayoumi%20Fouad%2C%20Nelly%20Karim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Supercharged%203.5-litre%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20400hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20430Nm%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh450%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 575bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh554,000
On sale: now
Frida%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarla%20Gutierrez%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Frida%20Kahlo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Read more about the coronavirus
The biog
Family: Parents and four sisters
Education: Bachelor’s degree in business management and marketing at American University of Sharjah
A self-confessed foodie, she enjoys trying out new cuisines, her current favourite is the poke superfood bowls
Likes reading: autobiographies and fiction
Favourite holiday destination: Italy
Posts information about challenges, events, runs in other emirates on the group's Instagram account @Anagowrunning
Has created a database of Emirati and GCC sportspeople on Instagram @abeermk, highlight: Athletes
Apart from training, also talks to women about nutrition, healthy lifestyle, diabetes, cholesterol, blood pressure
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre supercharged V6
Power: 416hp at 7,000rpm
Torque: 410Nm at 3,500rpm
Transmission: 6-speed manual
Fuel consumption: 10.2 l/100km
Price: Dh375,000
On sale: now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
