There is an old financial market axiom: "reverse the trend over a long weekend." Basically, as traders take a break from markets, they can sometimes square up their positions and come back to work with a clean trading sheet and often a fresh eye. In other words, it provides a useful safety valve so that investments that have become stale are despatched with little emotion, and the dealer can reappraise where the best opportunities lie.
The sort of extended holiday that many of us enjoyed over the past month or two is normally a particularly strong example of this phenomenon, with trading conditions quiet and market moves minimal at best.
So while last month the talk was of unending quantitative easing, the threat of sovereign debt default contagion in Europe and the lack of faith in governments, the focus has shifted this month, and with it a rather more positive view of events. Whether this survives the harsh reality of market moves has yet to be seen, but currently the attention is on rising interest rates in Asia, positive reaction to the bond auctions of some peripheral European countries, and the move to expand the scope and capacity of the European Financial Stabilisation Fund.
This bout of optimism has prompted some to question the need for retaining an investment in gold, as they would argue that much of the rationale for their original transaction has disappeared.
Depression and hyper-inflation have been avoided, central banks are moving to take control of economies again and the threat of sovereign default, and perhaps most dramatically, even the disappearance of the euro, are no longer considered possible. Hence gold's retreat from its recent all-time highs.
However, this reappraisal of gold's value has been confined to those players who are nimble enough to take advantage of rapid changes in markets, rather than those who are seeking to make a longer-term allocation to the precious metal as part of portfolio diversification.
For the latter group, a break from work would not be considered sufficient to simply switch away from gold. Instead, the investment is considered against multi-year factors. Additionally, gold's attractiveness within a range of investments and its qualities as a hedge against financial dislocation are not in doubt.
Nonetheless, with short-term issues in the ascendant, this could result in gold underperforming in the next few weeks as the market switches from nearby concerns to a longer-term outlook and reduces its exposure. To an extent, this is already happening, with gold struggling against both the US dollar and the euro in the first few days of this year.
But this has been a gradual retracement, and any liquidation from short-term interests has been masked by good physical demand out of Asia, where stocking up is taking place throughout the region in advance of the lunar new year celebrations.
So after plumbing, at the time, 19-year lows in 1999 when gold struggled to stay above US$250, is the story now all over? Has it had its time back in the sun and is it now ready to retreat back to relative obscurity? I have been somewhat strident in my views that the rationale behind the 10-year rally in gold prices was a function of a general unease over the state of financial markets, concern that monetary authorities were merely reacting to events in the global economy rather than controlling them, and a feeling that the wholesale retreat from gold as an acceptable asset, during the 1990s, was overdone.
Even if this bout of optimism for markets persists this year, it is the realisation that gold has been a financial asset for thousands of years that will persist - and that the 1980s and 1990s were the aberration.
Hence, investors will continue to accumulate gold. In such a small market as that for precious metals, even small reallocations of funds can have significant impacts. All the gold that has been mined in world history still constitutes less than 5 per cent of global wealth.
Therefore, despite my concerns over the immediate direction of gold prices, I continue to believe that much of the same rationale that has been driving prices will persist. While some of the motivation behind gold investments may shift over the coming 12 months, the overall result will continue to be much the same, with prices rising still further.
*Jonathan Spall is the director of commodities distribution at Barclays Capital in London, and the author of How to Profit in Gold
EDITOR'S PICK: Internet speeds to increase as du eyes 4G partner.
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
Company%20profile
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if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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SCORES IN BRIEF
New Zealand 153 and 56 for 1 in 22.4 overs at close
Pakistan 227
(Babar 62, Asad 43, Boult 4-54, De Grandhomme 2-30, Patel 2-64)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Iftar programme at the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding
Established in 1998, the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding was created with a vision to teach residents about the traditions and customs of the UAE. Its motto is ‘open doors, open minds’. All year-round, visitors can sign up for a traditional Emirati breakfast, lunch or dinner meal, as well as a range of walking tours, including ones to sites such as the Jumeirah Mosque or Al Fahidi Historical Neighbourhood.
Every year during Ramadan, an iftar programme is rolled out. This allows guests to break their fast with the centre’s presenters, visit a nearby mosque and observe their guides while they pray. These events last for about two hours and are open to the public, or can be booked for a private event.
Until the end of Ramadan, the iftar events take place from 7pm until 9pm, from Saturday to Thursday. Advanced booking is required.
For more details, email openminds@cultures.ae or visit www.cultures.ae
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESam%20Ottewill-Soulsby%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPrinceton%20University%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E392%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJuly%2011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
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Quick%20facts
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStorstockholms%20Lokaltrafik%20(SL)%20offers%20free%20guided%20tours%20of%20art%20in%20the%20metro%20and%20at%20the%20stations%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20tours%20are%20free%20of%20charge%3B%20all%20you%20need%20is%20a%20valid%20SL%20ticket%2C%20for%20which%20a%20single%20journey%20(valid%20for%2075%20minutes)%20costs%2039%20Swedish%20krone%20(%243.75)%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETravel%20cards%20for%20unlimited%20journeys%20are%20priced%20at%20165%20Swedish%20krone%20for%2024%20hours%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAvoid%20rush%20hour%20%E2%80%93%20between%209.30%20am%20and%204.30%20pm%20%E2%80%93%20to%20explore%20the%20artwork%20at%20leisure%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi
Director: Kangana Ranaut, Krish Jagarlamudi
Producer: Zee Studios, Kamal Jain
Cast: Kangana Ranaut, Ankita Lokhande, Danny Denzongpa, Atul Kulkarni
Rating: 2.5/5
AL%20BOOM
%3Cp%20style%3D%22text-align%3Ajustify%3B%22%3E%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3BDirector%3AAssad%20Al%20Waslati%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%20style%3D%22text-align%3Ajustify%3B%22%3E%0DStarring%3A%20Omar%20Al%20Mulla%2C%20Badr%20Hakami%20and%20Rehab%20Al%20Attar%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20ADtv%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
The biog
Name: Mariam Ketait
Emirate: Dubai
Hobbies: I enjoy travelling, experiencing new things, painting, reading, flying, and the French language
Favourite quote: "Be the change you wish to see" - unknown
Favourite activity: Connecting with different cultures
Mobile phone packages comparison
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The specs: 2017 Dodge Viper SRT
Price, base / as tested Dh460,000
Engine 8.4L V10
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 645hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 813Nm @ 5,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 16.8L / 100km
UAE%20Warriors%20fight%20card
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
