Ah, the joy of being right. I made four predictions in this column at the end of last year, and I feel entitled to claim 75 per cent accuracy in my crystal-ball gazing. That’s rather better than my 2013 success rate, which I calculated at 62.5 per cent. Stick with me, dear reader, the trend is clearly up.
A quick run through the past year’s achievements. I forecast that Dubai International Capital would sell at last one of its flagship European investments, and was proved right when it realised a massive $1.7 billion on the disposal of its Mauser business in August.
Next I said that Shuaa Capital, the oldest investment bank in the region, would return to profit after several years of losses. Actually it did it rather sooner than I anticipated, with a small positive return for the financial year 2013. But the recovery accelerated this year. It declared a net profit of more than Dh40 million in the first nine months, allowing chairman Sheikh Maktoum bin Hasher Al Maktoum to stand down “mission accomplished”.
Then I said that Dubai’s financial restructuring would speed up as the emirate gets to grips with the funding requirements for Expo 2020. The two big events in this respect were the refinancing of $20bn of debts to Abu Dhabi entities, and the deal to reschedule Dubai Holding’s $15bn of debts to banks. The first was done in March, the second has been approved by creditors.
My final prediction is the only one where a sceptic could argue the finer points. I said that Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) would have “the foundations in place for a powerful financial marketplace”, and I believe that has been proved right. There have been high profile executive hirings and regulatory developments that represent real progress in the long-term goal of creating a regional financial hub.
But maybe I was jumping the gun a bit. The foundations are there certainly, but, reflecting Abu Dhabi’s cautious, careful approach, the ADGM is still a few months off from welcoming its first financial firm. So I claim half right, but see prediction 4 below.
Emboldened by my success in 2014, here are my forecasts for 2015, a year that promises to be rather more difficult to call. But here we go:
1. Oil will recover to around the $75 to $80 per barrel level by the end of the year. Given that predicting oil price movements is the economics equivalent of the holy grail, this is a big gamble. But I believe the recent falls are unsustainable even in the medium term. The stimulus cheap energy gives to the global economy will increase output in Asia and elsewhere, while the United States economy is growing again. Some shale and deepwater projects will be uneconomic at present levels, leading to increased demand for the Arabian Gulf’s low-cost product.
2. Al Habtoor IPO. If oil was difficult, this is just as hard, but I believe 2015 will be the year Al Habtoor group, one of the region’s leading family businesses, will finally go for a market listing. Founder Khalaf Al Habtoor has been thinking about this for years. His is a finely-balanced call, but, assuming a period of relative calm in local markets and an end to the oil carnage, he will go for it, later in the new year.
3. Dubai will seek a rating for its sovereign debt. This has been one of the anomalies of the financial scene for years. Many big Dubai entities have ratings and enjoy the benefits in terms of access to cheaper debt. The emirate, gearing up for the big financial requirements of Expo 2020 investment, will have a rethink on this, and see the attractions of a big sovereign issue endorsed by the ratings’ agencies.
4. Finally, ADGM will reach “critical mass” about the middle if 2015, and will be in a position to announce its first financial member. The market, ploughing a furrow initially in private banking, wealth and asset management, will also name an executive for the important role of head of the independent court system, a centrepiece of the market vital to attract big global participants.
There they are. If wrong, I plead unforeseeable circumstance. If right, I will accept, indeed expect, applause by email.
fkane@thenational.ae
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Five ways to get fit like Craig David (we tried for seven but ran out of time)
Start the week as you mean to go on. So get your training on strong on a Monday.
Train hard, but don’t take it all so seriously that it gets to the point where you’re not having fun and enjoying your friends and your family and going out for nice meals and doing that stuff.
Think about what you’re training or eating a certain way for — don’t, for example, get a six-pack to impress somebody else or lose weight to conform to society’s norms. It’s all nonsense.
Get your priorities right.
And last but not least, you should always, always chill on Sundays.
Bio
Age: 25
Town: Al Diqdaqah – Ras Al Khaimah
Education: Bachelors degree in mechanical engineering
Favourite colour: White
Favourite place in the UAE: Downtown Dubai
Favourite book: A Life in Administration by Ghazi Al Gosaibi.
First owned baking book: How to Be a Domestic Goddess by Nigella Lawson.
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
'Morbius'
Director: Daniel Espinosa
Stars: Jared Leto, Matt Smith, Adria Arjona
Rating: 2/5
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
PSA DUBAI WORLD SERIES FINALS LINE-UP
Men’s:
Mohamed El Shorbagy (EGY)
Ali Farag (EGY)
Simon Rosner (GER)
Tarek Momen (EGY)
Miguel Angel Rodriguez (COL)
Gregory Gaultier (FRA)
Karim Abdel Gawad (EGY)
Nick Matthew (ENG)
Women's:
Nour El Sherbini (EGY)
Raneem El Welily (EGY)
Nour El Tayeb (EGY)
Laura Massaro (ENG)
Joelle King (NZE)
Camille Serme (FRA)
Nouran Gohar (EGY)
Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG)
If you go...
Flying
There is no simple way to get to Punta Arenas from the UAE, with flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi requiring at least two connections to reach this part of Patagonia. Flights start from about Dh6,250.
Touring
Chile Nativo offers the amended Los Dientes trek with expert guides and porters who are met in Puerto Williams on Isla Navarino. The trip starts and ends in Punta Arenas and lasts for six days in total. Prices start from Dh8,795.
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VERSTAPPEN'S FIRSTS
Youngest F1 driver (17 years 3 days Japan 2014)
Youngest driver to start an F1 race (17 years 166 days – Australia 2015)
Youngest F1 driver to score points (17 years 180 days - Malaysia 2015)
Youngest driver to lead an F1 race (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest driver to set an F1 fastest lap (19 years 44 days – Brazil 2016)
Youngest on F1 podium finish (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest F1 winner (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest multiple F1 race winner (Mexico 2017/18)
Youngest F1 driver to win the same race (Mexico 2017/18)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
More on animal trafficking
The Specs:
The Specs:
Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Power: 444bhp
Torque: 600Nm
Price: AED 356,580 incl VAT
On sale: now.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Director: Romany Saad
Starring: Mirfat Amin, Boumi Fouad and Tariq Al Ibyari
Salah in numbers
€39 million: Liverpool agreed a fee, including add-ons, in the region of €39m (nearly Dh176m) to sign Salah from Roma last year. The exchange rate at the time meant that cost the Reds £34.3m - a bargain given his performances since.
13: The 25-year-old player was not a complete stranger to the Premier League when he arrived at Liverpool this summer. However, during his previous stint at Chelsea, he made just 13 Premier League appearances, seven of which were off the bench, and scored only twice.
57: It was in the 57th minute of his Liverpool bow when Salah opened his account for the Reds in the 3-3 draw with Watford back in August. The Egyptian prodded the ball over the line from close range after latching onto Roberto Firmino's attempted lob.
7: Salah's best scoring streak of the season occurred between an FA Cup tie against West Brom on January 27 and a Premier League win over Newcastle on March 3. He scored for seven games running in all competitions and struck twice against Tottenham.
3: This season Salah became the first player in Premier League history to win the player of the month award three times during a term. He was voted as the division's best player in November, February and March.
40: Salah joined Roger Hunt and Ian Rush as the only players in Liverpool's history to have scored 40 times in a single season when he headed home against Bournemouth at Anfield earlier this month.
30: The goal against Bournemouth ensured the Egyptian achieved another milestone in becoming the first African player to score 30 times across one Premier League campaign.
8: As well as his fine form in England, Salah has also scored eight times in the tournament phase of this season's Champions League. Only Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo, with 15 to his credit, has found the net more often in the group stages and knockout rounds of Europe's premier club competition.
