With just three days to go until the United Kingdom decides whether to leave the European Union or remain, Stephan Shakespeare, the founder of YouGov, reveals what the latest polling tells us about the likely outcome of the referendum in an exclusive interview with The National.
Will Remain or Leave win the EU membership referendum in the UK on Thursday?
It is extremely hard to tell. Our latest poll has a one-point lead for Remain, but we’ve been having three or four polls lately and interviewed literally 9,000 people and they are all around a couple of per cent either side of a dead heat. So at the moment we are looking at a dead heat in terms of what people say they are going to do next. However, most people at YouGov, including me, take the view that in most previous referenda across the world, but in particular the Scottish one, which is a model for us, there is a reversion to status quo in the last bit of the campaign. We would expect that going into the final straight if it’s a dead heat or thereabouts we would expect to end towards Remain. But that is pure speculation, there’s no hard evidence for that. There is only looking at previous experience.
How much of your reputation is riding on getting this right given the controversy around the accuracy of the polls before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the 2015 UK general election?
We got Scotland pretty much spot on. For some reason, people remember 10 days out – very briefly – one poll [showing] a one-point lead for the break up of the union. Every other poll after that showed a point-by-point reversion to the status quo. Our eve-of-poll had a six-point lead for the equivalent of “remain” in Scotland and our on-the-day poll was within 1 per cent – so our polling record for Scotland was perfect. We only ever had one thing wrong and that was embarrassing and stupid. The whole industry made the same error. But that is the only time we predicted the wrong outcome in over 50 elections. I agree with you that that’s very big, but since then we got the Corbyn election right. We got the Welsh elections right in May. And we got the [London] mayoral elections bang on as well. So we have a massive history of being spot on or thereabouts and only one poll that was ever off, and that was obviously the huge embarrassment of the general election in 2015. I don’t want to push that under the carpet. We had a massive investigation, and we found out what was wrong and we changed things to deal with that. It’s perfectly possible we’ll get this one wrong because different things go wrong and if we do, it will be very, very painful. But our long-term history in polling is very, very accurate.
What further polls will you be releasing between now and referendum day?
We are polling every single day and we have a final poll for the media finishing on Wednesday and probably being published on Thursday morning. We are doing our damnedest to get it right.
Why should voters trust you more than bookmakers?
Bookies are very different to what pollsters do. Pollsters tell you as best they can what people are saying and thinking today. What bookies and markets do is bet on the outcome at the end. At the beginning of this interview, I said I don’t think that the result we have today will be the final result. If I was putting money on it I would also put money on Remain because I think in the last minute, like Scotland, there will be a bit of a drift back towards Remain. Our last poll is when we are in competition with the bookies, not in our early polls. It also has to be said that the bookies are basically aggregators of polling, they don’t have independent evidence of any kind. If you look at the Corbyn experience, until our poll came out to say he was ahead, Corbyn was the outsider. The bookies had him as the outsider until our polls came out.
Are there any parallels to be drawn between the EU membership referendum in the UK and the presidential elections in the US in terms of what is pressing the emotional buttons of voters?
I think there is an important parallel. Of course we can’t take these things too far, but in both cases there is a challenger, in [Donald] Trump or the Brexiteers if you like, to establishment politics. And they are attracting support from people who feel they have been left out. The ones who perhaps feel they have not advanced as much economically as the rest of society, the ones who feel they have less of a voice and who look to outsiders like Trump and [Nigel] Farage. So yes, those buttons are being pressed by the same type of politics if you like.
Has the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox influenced the likely outcome of this referendum?
We have taken a couple of polls after that tragic event and we don’t see that as having an immediate effect. The swing back to Remain had been coming back before the tragic murder.
Then what has been driving the Remain momentum?
There is some guesswork that the punishment budget of George Osborne, although quite widely condemned as scaremongering, may nevertheless have worried people into switching. The reason one could guess – and it is no more than a guess – is that at the same time the regular tracking question we ask, which is “Do you think Brexit will help or hurt your personal finances?”, took a 10 per cent leap in the last week for those who said they do now consider the prospect of Brexit hurting their personal finances.
Is immigration the big driver for Leave voters?
Yes, the single biggest driver for the Leave vote is concern about immigration. Some of that will be pure xenophobia and racism. A lot of it isn’t that at all. There is also an economic effect to open borders. Some would argue it’s a positive effect because you have more talent coming in and driving the economy. Others say it drives down wages and puts pressure on public services. So immigration is an important issue, but it’s not only a race issue.
scronin@thenational.ae
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Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
ARGYLLE
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Our House, Louise Candlish,
Simon & Schuster
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Previous men's records
- 2:01:39: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) on 16/9/19 in Berlin
- 2:02:57: Dennis Kimetto (KEN) on 28/09/2014 in Berlin
- 2:03:23: Wilson Kipsang (KEN) on 29/09/2013 in Berlin
- 2:03:38: Patrick Makau (KEN) on 25/09/2011 in Berlin
- 2:03:59: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 28/09/2008 in Berlin
- 2:04:26: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 30/09/2007 in Berlin
- 2:04:55: Paul Tergat (KEN) on 28/09/2003 in Berlin
- 2:05:38: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 14/04/2002 in London
- 2:05:42: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 24/10/1999 in Chicago
- 2:06:05: Ronaldo da Costa (BRA) 20/09/1998 in Berlin
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Ticket prices
General admission Dh295 (under-three free)
Buy a four-person Family & Friends ticket and pay for only three tickets, so the fourth family member is free
Buy tickets at: wbworldabudhabi.com/en/tickets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Company%C2%A0profile
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
HWJN
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Jurassic%20Park
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Spielberg%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sam%20Neill%2C%20Jeff%20Goldblum%20and%20Richard%20Attenborough%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
