‘No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years.”
Such a vision, if well-founded, would indeed scare the oil and traditional vehicle industries, with the prospect of a collapse in demand. Yet The Telegraph's breathless summary of a report by Tony Seba, a Stanford University economist, matches much other uncritical and hyperbolic commentary.
Mr Seba’s prediction postulates a near-simultaneous development in three dimensions: the complete replacement of fossil fuels by solar and wind power; long-range electric cars costing less than petrol or diesel-fuelled ones by 2020; and, by 2021, truly autonomous vehicles not requiring a human driver.
In his vision, personal car ownership would almost end, replaced by self-driving electric vehicles that appear on demand, transport 10 times cheaper than current cars, and store excess renewable energy in their batteries. Global oil demand would fall from 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to just 70 million bpd by 2030, pushing down oil prices to US$25 per barrel.
“Disruption” is a popular current buzzword, applied indiscriminately to everything from genuine transformations, such as the replacement of film by digital cameras, through to mere incremental improvements. IBM’s apocryphal 1943 comment that, “there is a world market for maybe five computers” is one example of a great disruption overlooked. On the other hand, 1950s predictions of flying cars and interstellar exploration have not and may never come to pass.
The conventional energy industry is right to be wary of Mr Seba’s vision. Its vast size, profitability and environmental unpopularity put it in the crosshairs of many entrepreneurs. The past decade has seen two genuine energy “disruptions”: the dramatic drop in the cost of solar power; and the emergence of shale oil and gas, which has driven down oil prices by more than half.
Yet truly rapid disruptions in the energy business are rare, because of the vast installed base of long-life assets and the high financial and safety stakes of failure. A coal mine, gasfield, nuclear reactor or solar farm will operate for 30 years or more. A car lasts 10 times as long and costs a hundred times as much as a camera or smartphone.
The Model T was launched in 1908 but horse-drawn carts were a common sight on British roads into the 1950s. Based on the slow adoption of features such as airbags and cruise control, consultancy BCG forecasts autonomous vehicles reaching a quarter of new sales only after 20 years.
The Seba report assumes dramatic drops in the cost of electric vehicles. While battery prices are falling fast, it is less clear why the rest of the car will become cheaper, while autonomous features add significant extra costs.
And the degree of dislocation foreseen will introduce many bottlenecks. Tesla has repeatedly missed production targets for its electric cars. Materials often found in unstable or investor-unfriendly locations such as Bolivia and Congo, and monopolised by a few suppliers – lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earth metals – will have to be mined in huge quantities.
Autonomous vehicles drive more efficiently but cheap and convenient transport could cause such a dramatic increase in travel as to overwhelm road networks. Regulation and law will have to catch up.
Oil companies and major producing countries should not dismiss the chance for upheaval in their markets. Forecasts by groups such as BP for just 6 per cent of vehicles to be electric by 2035 certainly look too conservative.
A much faster rise of electric vehicles would help to meet environmental goals and would dent oil demand growth. The hard work of restructuring petroleum companies and exporting countries for the new era has to accelerate. But the widespread use of autonomous vehicles – and Mr Seba’s convergent “disruption” – seem much further off.
Robin M Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The biog
Birthday: February 22, 1956
Born: Madahha near Chittagong, Bangladesh
Arrived in UAE: 1978
Exercise: At least one hour a day on the Corniche, from 5.30-6am and 7pm to 8pm.
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi? “Everywhere. Wherever you go, you can relax.”
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Bio
Born in Dubai in 1994
Her father is a retired Emirati police officer and her mother is originally from Kuwait
She Graduated from the American University of Sharjah in 2015 and is currently working on her Masters in Communication from the University of Sharjah.
Her favourite film is Pacific Rim, directed by Guillermo del Toro
US tops drug cost charts
The study of 13 essential drugs showed costs in the United States were about 300 per cent higher than the global average, followed by Germany at 126 per cent and 122 per cent in the UAE.
Thailand, Kenya and Malaysia were rated as nations with the lowest costs, about 90 per cent cheaper.
In the case of insulin, diabetic patients in the US paid five and a half times the global average, while in the UAE the costs are about 50 per cent higher than the median price of branded and generic drugs.
Some of the costliest drugs worldwide include Lipitor for high cholesterol.
The study’s price index placed the US at an exorbitant 2,170 per cent higher for Lipitor than the average global price and the UAE at the eighth spot globally with costs 252 per cent higher.
High blood pressure medication Zestril was also more than 2,680 per cent higher in the US and the UAE price was 187 per cent higher than the global price.
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years-of-age
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his/her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30-years-old and able to support the child financially
THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2A)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7-inch%20flexible%20Amoled%2C%202%2C412%20x%201%2C080%2C%20394ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%20Corning%20Gorilla%20Glass%205%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MediaTek%20Dimensity%207%2C200%20Pro%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F12GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20Nothing%20OS%202.5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2050MP%20main%2C%20f%2F1.88%20%2B%2050MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3B%20OIS%2C%20EIS%2C%20auto-focus%2C%20ultra%20XDR%2C%20night%20mode%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2030fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2060fps%3B%20slo-mo%20full-HD%20at%20120fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032MP%20wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2C000mAh%3B%2050%25%20in%2030%20minutes%20with%2045-watt%20charger%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Google%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fingerprint%2C%20face%20unlock%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP54%2C%20limited%20protection%20from%20water%2Fdust%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual-nano%20SIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Black%2C%20milk%2C%20white%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nothing%20Phone%20(2a)%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%20pre-applied%20screen%20protector%2C%20Sim%20tray%20ejector%20tool%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%20(UAE)%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh1%2C199%20(8GB%2F128GB)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C399%20(12GB%2F256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cases of coronavirus in the GCC as of March 15
Saudi Arabia – 103 infected, 0 dead, 1 recovered
UAE – 86 infected, 0 dead, 23 recovered
Bahrain – 210 infected, 0 dead, 44 recovered
Kuwait – 104 infected, 0 dead, 5 recovered
Qatar – 337 infected, 0 dead, 4 recovered
Oman – 19 infected, 0 dead, 9 recovered
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz C200 Coupe
Price, base: Dh201,153
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 204hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 300Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
Kibsons%20Cares
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERecycling%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3EAny%20time%20you%20receive%20a%20Kibsons%20order%2C%20you%20can%20return%20your%20cardboard%20box%20to%20the%20drivers.%20They%E2%80%99ll%20be%20happy%20to%20take%20it%20off%20your%20hands%20and%20ensure%20it%20gets%20reused%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EKind%20to%20health%20and%20planet%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESolar%20%E2%80%93%2025-50%25%20of%20electricity%20saved%3Cbr%3EWater%20%E2%80%93%2075%25%20of%20water%20reused%3Cbr%3EBiofuel%20%E2%80%93%20Kibsons%20fleet%20to%20get%2020%25%20more%20mileage%20per%20litre%20with%20biofuel%20additives%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESustainable%20grocery%20shopping%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENo%20antibiotics%3Cbr%3ENo%20added%20hormones%3Cbr%3ENo%20GMO%3Cbr%3ENo%20preservatives%3Cbr%3EMSG%20free%3Cbr%3E100%25%20natural%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
In Full Flight: A Story of Africa and Atonement
John Heminway, Knopff
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%20train%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20and%20synchronous%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E950Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E25.7kWh%20lithium-ion%3Cbr%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%203.4sec%3Cbr%3E0-200km%2Fh%3A%2011.4sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E312km%2Fh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20electric-only%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2060km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Q3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.2m%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Star%20Wars%3A%20Episode%20I%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Phantom%20Menace
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