When examining the unrest in the region and the repeated talk of contagion, we find that the main culprits for igniting the masses are neither political nor Mena-specific.
After all, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali's regime in Tunisia had been around for 23 years. Hosni Mubarak's rule in Egypt was entering its 30th year. In fact it is the much more basic universal need for sustenance that has driven emotions and the masses to take to the streets.
Although economic hardship has been mentioned in the media as a cause for the uprisings, the focus remained on the countries' political frameworks and corruption. But as the last decades have shown, the majority of people are willing to tolerate living in police states if afforded their basic needs for food and water; necessities that are at the foundation of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Governments around the world would do well to remember this pertinent Spanish saying: Lo que separa la civilización de la anarquía son solo siete comidas (Civilization and anarchy are only seven meals apart).
In June 2008, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Food Price Index rose to an all-time high of 213.5 because of a mix of high oil and fuel prices, the growing use of biofuels, bad weather and soaring futures markets. These record prices sparked riots in countries including Haiti, Bangladesh and Egypt, bringing the issue of increasing basic food costs to the forefront of the world's attention.
However, the drop in global commodity prices within months of the June peak translated into a 35 per cent decrease in the FAO price index by February 2009. The short life of these high prices limited hardships and prevented the escalation of the social unrest that did occur. Last month, however, the FAO price index hit a record level for the second month in a row, reaching 230.8 after breaking the 2008 high in December. This represents a 66 per cent increase from the February 2009 low and 8 per cent over the riot-sparking 2008 levels. Prices of corn, wheat, oats, soybeans and soybean oil have gained over 50 per cent in the past 12 months, and the trend is upward. These realities have revived the debate about the main drivers of the price increases.
The elevated prices are coming at a time when the global economy is undergoing a precarious recovery, with unemployment figures still high in many countries. As in the 2008 global food crisis, multiple factors are coming together to push prices upwards. Analysts differ on which factors are most significant.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum's meeting in Davos, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, chiefly blamed speculators, accusing them of "pillaging" and calling for further regulation of commodity trading. "It's a chicken and egg situation: speculation feeds on shortages and shortages are made worse by speculation," he said at the conference last month. "A lack of transparency plus a lack of regulation led to an increase in grain prices in a matter of weeks."
Others point to the US Federal Reserve and its policy of quantitative easing. To enable the US to spend its way out of recession, the Fed has been injecting large amounts of cash into the system, which in turn inflates the many dollar-denominated commodities as the US currency weakens.
In effect, the Fed is exporting inflation by printing money that forces its debt burden to be shared globally, a policy that has many finance ministers around the world irate.
Then there is the argument of global population growth and, more specifically, consumption trends in emerging economies. While 2011 is the year we will welcome the seven billionth inhabitant on our little blue planet, it is the rising meat consumption fuelled by the growing wealth in emerging economies, some argue, that has strained food supplies. Diverting food crops towards animal feed that is in turn used to produce the increasingly demanded animal protein is not an efficient calorie-for-calorie trade-off. This creates competition for land, with food crops perhaps losing out, just as they did with the bad energy policies that called for subsidising the production of ethanol, which consumes a lot of corn.
Finally, when all else fails, blame it on the weather. Climate change is a reality accepted by the vast majority, even if its causes are still debated. In the case of wheat, prices have almost doubled because of a sharp decrease in world production. This decrease is principally emanating from Russia and neighbouring countries that have suffered droughts and record heat waves. Other extreme weather events - including dry weather in Brazil and cataclysmic flooding in Australia - have also battered world food production.
Whether you subscribe to the speculators "pillaging" view, the Fed inflationary policies, demographic trends, climate change or any combination of these arguments as an explanation for rising food prices, the most likely inference is a continuation of this trend. As basic goods become too expensive, turmoil will flourish.
Walid Hayeck is the head of asset management at The National Investor
The biog
Name: Mariam Ketait
Emirate: Dubai
Hobbies: I enjoy travelling, experiencing new things, painting, reading, flying, and the French language
Favourite quote: "Be the change you wish to see" - unknown
Favourite activity: Connecting with different cultures
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
All you need to know about Formula E in Saudi Arabia
What The Saudia Ad Diriyah E-Prix
When Saturday
Where Diriyah in Saudi Arabia
What time Qualifying takes place from 11.50am UAE time through until the Super Pole session, which is due to end at 12.55pm. The race, which will last for 45 minutes, starts at 4.05pm.
Who is competing There are 22 drivers, from 11 teams, on the grid, with each vehicle run solely on electronic power.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Results
Female 49kg: Mayssa Bastos (BRA) bt Thamires Aquino (BRA); points 0-0 (advantage points points 1-0).
Female 55kg: Bianca Basilio (BRA) bt Amal Amjahid (BEL); points 4-2.
Female 62kg: Beatriz Mesquita (BRA) v Ffion Davies (GBR); 10-2.
Female 70kg: Thamara Silva (BRA) bt Alessandra Moss (AUS); submission.
Female 90kg: Gabreili Passanha (BRA) bt Claire-France Thevenon (FRA); submission.
Male 56kg: Hiago George (BRA) bt Carlos Alberto da Silva (BRA); 2-2 (2-0)
Male 62kg: Gabriel de Sousa (BRA) bt Joao Miyao (BRA); 2-2 (2-1)
Male 69kg: Paulo Miyao (BRA) bt Isaac Doederlein (USA); 2-2 (2-2) Ref decision.
Male 77kg: Tommy Langarkar (NOR) by Oliver Lovell (GBR); submission.
Male 85kg: Rudson Mateus Teles (BRA) bt Faisal Al Ketbi (UAE); 2-2 (1-1) Ref decision.
Male 94kg: Kaynan Duarte (BRA) bt Adam Wardzinski (POL); submission.
Male 110kg: Joao Rocha (BRA) bt Yahia Mansoor Al Hammadi (UAE); submission.
U19 WORLD CUP, WEST INDIES
UAE group fixtures (all in St Kitts)
- Saturday 15 January: UAE beat Canada by 49 runs
- Thursday 20 January: v England
- Saturday 22 January: v Bangladesh
UAE squad:
Alishan Sharafu (captain), Shival Bawa, Jash Giyanani, Sailles
Jaishankar, Nilansh Keswani, Aayan Khan, Punya Mehra, Ali Naseer, Ronak Panoly,
Dhruv Parashar, Vinayak Raghavan, Soorya Sathish, Aryansh Sharma, Adithya
Shetty, Kai Smith
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Day 3, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Just three balls remained in an exhausting day for Sri Lanka’s bowlers when they were afforded some belated cheer. Nuwan Pradeep, unrewarded in 15 overs to that point, let slip a seemingly innocuous delivery down the legside. Babar Azam feathered it behind, and Niroshan Dickwella dived to make a fine catch.
Stat of the day - 2.56 Shan Masood and Sami Aslam are the 16th opening partnership Pakistan have had in Tests in the past five years. That turnover at the top of the order – a new pair every 2.56 Test matches on average – is by far the fastest rate among the leading Test sides. Masood and Aslam put on 114 in their first alliance in Abu Dhabi.
The verdict Even by the normal standards of Test cricket in the UAE, this has been slow going. Pakistan’s run-rate of 2.38 per over is the lowest they have managed in a Test match in this country. With just 14 wickets having fallen in three days so far, it is difficult to see 26 dropping to bring about a result over the next two.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Non-oil%20trade
%3Cp%3ENon-oil%20trade%20between%20the%20UAE%20and%20Japan%20grew%20by%2034%20per%20cent%20over%20the%20past%20two%20years%2C%20according%20to%20data%20from%20the%20Federal%20Competitiveness%20and%20Statistics%20Centre.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%2010%20years%2C%20it%20has%20reached%20a%20total%20of%20Dh524.4%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECars%20topped%20the%20list%20of%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20re-exported%20to%20Japan%20in%202022%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh1.3%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJewellery%20and%20ornaments%20amounted%20to%20Dh150%20million%20while%20precious%20metal%20scraps%20amounted%20to%20Dh105%20million.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERaw%20aluminium%20was%20ranked%20first%20among%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20exported%20to%20Japan.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETop%20of%20the%20list%20of%20commodities%20imported%20from%20Japan%20in%202022%20was%20cars%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh20.08%20billion.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Developer: Ubisoft Montreal / Ubisoft Toronto
Publisher: Ubisoft
Platforms: Playstation 4, Xbox One, Windows
Release Date: April 10
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs: 2018 Alfa Romeo Stelvio
Price, base: Dh198,300
Engine: 2.0L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 280hp @ 5,250rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 2,250rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7L / 100km
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
ANATOMY%20OF%20A%20FALL
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