The word recovery in relation to the global economy has, rather unbelievably, been bandied about since early 2009, just a few months after the crisis actually began.
We have had a nascent recovery, a quickening recovery, a definite recovery and, more recently, signs of a faltering recovery.
If only we had paid such close and frequent attention to the indications of impending doom, no matter how insignificant they may have seemed, we might have been able to avoid this mess in the first place.
Almost nothing was said as the national debt of the United States sped past US$10 trillion (Dh36.73tn), there was hardly a word as Greece, Portugal and Spain continued to miss even the most basic fiscal requirements laid out in the Maastricht Treaty and silence as Wall Street packaged up the banking industry's combined effluent and sold it as gold. Not even the ratings agencies said anything.
But the world was happy as the debt piled up. The massive exercise in leveraging balance sheets, from the remotest of households to the most prominent of sovereign nations, opened up opportunity and prosperity like never before.
It is no wonder we have been looking so hard for signs of its return.
Despite the hopeful murmurs, recovery, at least on a multilateral scale, is still a long way off and it will remain so until we tackle the real problem at the root of this crisis.
Levels of debt have continued to rise at almost every level all over the world since 2008.
McKinsey & Company, the management consultants, had a close look at the levels of debt of 10 major economies just after the crisis began. McKinsey's report made for pretty grim reading.
It repeated the exercise just recently, and the results contain little that is encouraging.
Most worryingly, it appears that total debt has actually increased in every one of the world's 10 largest economies since 2008, mainly due to the continual increase in government debt. What's more, debt-to-GDP ratios have fallen only in three economies - the US, South Korea and Australia.
In fact, the US is the only country in McKinsey's top 10 that even appears to be following a recognisable path towards recovery.
Even there, the government is doing a pretty poor job of reining in debt, with the total national debt standing at $14tn today. It is hard to imagine that in 2001, after the end of the Clinton administration, the US was on track to pay off its national debt in its entirety and create a surplus of $2.3tn.
American households, on the other hand, are doing much better than their government. Total household debt in the US has decreased by some 15 per cent since 2008, but it is worth remembering that an awful lot of that has been written off by financial institutions as unrecoverable, most of it mortgages on foreclosed homes.
Their British counterparts have actually increased personal debt, in virtual lockstep with their government.
The kind of austerity policies being pursued in Britain, and in those European countries in peril, are unlikely to enable the kind of deleveraging needed to truly enter recovery. Adair Turner, the head of Britain's financial regulator, the FSA, underscored this last week when he cautioned that such policy leads to the denominator of GDP chasing the numerator of debt in a downward spiral - exactly what McKinsey's analysis shows is happening in Britain.
Deleveraging is a critical phase of recovery. With this in mind, we can safely say that the US is at best in remission, but the rest of the world is still very much on the sick list.
For this most virulent of illnesses, a return to the kind of surplus aspirations we had in the early part of the century is perhaps the only cure.
jdoran@thenational.ae
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
CREW
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERajesh%20A%20Krishnan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETabu%2C%20Kareena%20Kapoor%20Khan%2C%20Kriti%20Sanon%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
FIXTURES
Thursday
Dibba v Al Dhafra, Fujairah Stadium (5pm)
Al Wahda v Hatta, Al Nahyan Stadium (8pm)
Friday
Al Nasr v Ajman, Zabeel Stadium (5pm)
Al Jazria v Al Wasl, Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium (8pm)
Saturday
Emirates v Al Ain, Emirates Club Stadium (5pm)
Sharjah v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, Sharjah Stadium (8pm)
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (captain), Dom Sibley, Rory Burns, Dan Lawrence, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope, Ben Foakes (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20several%20factors%20for%20landlords%20to%20consider%20when%20preparing%20to%20establish%20a%20holiday%20home%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3ERevenue%20potential%20of%20the%20unit%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20location%2C%20view%20and%20size%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%3A%20furnished%20or%20unfurnished.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Is%20the%20design%20up%20to%20standard%2C%20while%20being%20catchy%20at%20the%20same%20time%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20model%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20will%20it%20be%20managed%20by%20a%20professional%20operator%20or%20directly%20by%20the%20owner%2C%20how%20often%20does%20the%20owner%20wants%20to%20use%20it%20for%20personal%20reasons%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuality%20of%20the%20operator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20guest%20reviews%2C%20customer%20experience%20management%2C%20application%20of%20technology%2C%20average%20utilisation%2C%20scope%20of%20services%20rendered%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Adam%20Nowak%2C%20managing%20director%20of%20Ultimate%20Stay%20Vacation%20Homes%20Rental%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Fulham 0
Aston Villa 3 (Grealish 4', Hourihane 15', Mings 48')
Man of the match: Jack Grealish (Aston Villa)
New schools in Dubai
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20with%2048V%20mild%20hybrid%20system%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E544hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E750Nm%20at%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh700%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Elate%20November%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
