If you want to figure where Egypt is going, toss out your economic models. I’ve come up with my own that beats them all.
I call it “seven years feast, seven years famine.”
Maybe I wasn’t the first to come up with it, but as an economic predictor it has worked like a charm.
Let’s start with the current situation. Not many would disagree that we’re in an economic morass at the moment, that began with the 2011 uprising, when tourists and investors fled from the country’s political instability.
Subtract seven years from 2011, and we’re in 2004. That was the year that Ahmed Nazif, backed by the then president’s son, Gamal Mubarak, was appointed prime minister and formed a government of economic liberalisers who slashed tariffs and income taxes and floated the Egyptian pound.
At the same time, tourism was just beginning to recover from earlier damage, and natural gas from world-class deposits, newly discovered in the Nile Delta basin, began coming on stream. It was a time of feast, if not equally shared, with annual GDP growth soaring to as high as 7.2 per cent in the 2007-2008 financial year.
The precision of the cycle is uncanny. Go back another seven years and we’re in 1997, the start of an earlier round of economic famine. That was the year of the Asian financial crisis, which caused investors to pull back from emerging markets throughout the world, and a drop in the international price of oil when Egypt was still a net energy exporter.
Also in that year, in November, gunmen in Luxor slaughtered 58 tourists at Hatshepsut’s Temple, wiping out the tourism industry. Poor management of the currency’s exchange rate guaranteed that the economic quagmire would last a full seven years.
Rewind seven more years and it’s 1990. That was the year, in August, when Iraq invaded Kuwait and Egypt agreed to send its army to help in the liberation. Over the next 12 months, the Arabian Gulf states and the Paris club of creditor nations agreed to cancel about US$25 billion worth of Egyptian foreign debt. That and a subsequent, much-reviled IMF agreement that nevertheless put the economy on track, spurred on seven years of feasting.
The debt forgiveness was not a moment too late, because before that, in the famine that started in 1983, the economy had been in desperate straits, with the president, Hosni Mubarak, having to fly to the Gulf every few months to secure finance for the latest instalment of the country’s expensive subsidised wheat programme.
Anwar Sadat’s open-door policy in the 1970s and the largesse delivered after the Camp David accords fed an expansion, starting in 1976, that erased the losses of the previous famine, which came during a period of wars in the region.
And seven years before that, Gamal Abdel Nasser’s nationalisations of 1961 and 1962 injected a vast, if short-lived, amount of wealth into the economy. This was preceded by an economic drought brought on by the break with the West beginning in 1955 and fanned by the 1956 Suez crisis, which sparked a rush by the country’s residents to send their capital abroad. Before that, the Second World War, after an initial boost for Egypt’s economy, began to bite in 1941 as austerity measures were imposed.
Like the Nile floods recounted in the holy books, many of these events were completely out of the control of Egyptians themselves. But others were the result of policies, bad or good.
What might this mean for investors today?
Assuming the cycle continues as it has for decades, it means they can expect the good times to return, but in the meantime we are possibly stuck with another three years of slump before the economy takes off again.
This agrees with what businessmen are saying, that it may take a few more years before tourism bounces back and for recently announced projects to get under way or start bearing fruit.
The cycle’s regularity may also mean that it’s a good time for investors to get in early.
Once the economy does take off, it may be wise to take a page from the story of Joseph, who advised the Pharaoh to set aside food and grain during the seven years of feast for the coming seven years of famine.
This time around, rather than filling the silos with grain, let the government stop squandering energy with wasteful subsidies and let it fill the economy with long-term investments. Rather than loading up the granaries, let it pour money into schools, solar energy, metro systems and other infrastructure.
Patrick Werr has worked as a financial writer in Egypt for 25 years for agencies including Reuters and Bloomberg News
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Takreem Awards winners 2021
Corporate Leadership: Carl Bistany (Lebanon)
Cultural Excellence: Hoor Al Qasimi (UAE)
Environmental Development and Sustainability: Bkerzay (Lebanon)
Environmental Development and Sustainability: Raya Ani (Iraq)
Humanitarian and Civic Services: Women’s Programs Association (Lebanon)
Humanitarian and Civic Services: Osamah Al Thini (Libya)
Excellence in Education: World Innovation Summit for Education (WISE) (Qatar)
Outstanding Arab Woman: Balghis Badri (Sudan)
Scientific and Technological Achievement: Mohamed Slim Alouini (KSA)
Young Entrepreneur: Omar Itani (Lebanon)
Lifetime Achievement: Suad Al Amiry (Palestine)
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Europe's top EV producers
- Norway (63% of cars registered in 2021)
- Iceland (33%)
- Netherlands (20%)
- Sweden (19%)
- Austria (14%)
- Germany (14%)
- Denmark (13%)
- Switzerland (13%)
- United Kingdom (12%)
- Luxembourg (10%)
Source: VCOe
DUNGEONS%20%26%20DRAGONS%3A%20HONOR%20AMONG%20THIEVES
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Squad: Majed Naser, Abdulaziz Sanqour, Walid Abbas, Khamis Esmail, Habib Fardan, Mohammed Marzouq (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Khalid Essa, Muhanad Salem, Mohammed Ahmed, Ismail Ahmed, Ahmed Barman, Amer Abdulrahman, Omar Abdulrahman (Al Ain), Ali Khaseif, Fares Juma, Mohammed Fawzi, Khalfan Mubarak, Mohammed Jamal, Ahmed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Ahmed Rashid, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Wahda), Tariq Ahmed, Mahmoud Khamis, Khalifa Mubarak, Jassim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Yousef Saeed (Sharjah), Suhail Al Nubi (Baniyas)
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
HWJN
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In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Letswork%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOmar%20Almheiri%2C%20Hamza%20Khan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20co-working%20spaces%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.1%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20with%20investors%20including%20500%20Global%2C%20The%20Space%2C%20DTEC%20Ventures%20and%20other%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20about%2020%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clinicy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Prince%20Mohammed%20Bin%20Abdulrahman%2C%20Abdullah%20bin%20Sulaiman%20Alobaid%20and%20Saud%20bin%20Sulaiman%20Alobaid%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Riyadh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2025%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20More%20than%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Gate%20Capital%2C%20Kafou%20Group%20and%20Fadeed%20Investment%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Saint-Etienne v Montpellier (10.45pm)
Saturday
Monaco v Caen (7pm)
Amiens v Bordeaux (10pm)
Angers v Toulouse (10pm)
Metz v Dijon (10pm)
Nantes v Guingamp (10pm)
Rennes v Lille (10pm)
Sunday
Nice v Strasbourg (5pm)
Troyes v Lyon (7pm)
Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain (11pm)
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Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
if you go
The flights Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, and Royal Jordanian all offer direct, three-and-a-half-hour flights from the UAE to the Jordanian capital Amman. Alternatively, from June Fly Dubai will offer a new direct service from Dubai to Aqaba in the south of the country. See the airlines’ respective sites for varying prices or search on reliable price-comparison site Skyscanner.
The trip
Jamie Lafferty was a guest of the Jordan Tourist Board. For more information on adventure tourism in Jordan see Visit Jordan. A number of new and established tour companies offer the chance to go caving, rock-climbing, canyoning, and mountaineering in Jordan. Prices vary depending on how many activities you want to do and how many days you plan to stay in the country. Among the leaders are Terhaal, who offer a two-day canyoning trip from Dh845 per person. If you really want to push your limits, contact the Stronger Team. For a more trek-focused trip, KE Adventure offers an eight-day trip from Dh5,300 per person.
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Co%20Chocolat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Iman%20and%20Luchie%20Suguitan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Food%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241%20million-plus%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fahad%20bin%20Juma%2C%20self-funding%2C%20family%20and%20friends%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 582bhp
Torque: 730Nm
Price: Dh649,000
On sale: now
RESULTS
Main card
Bantamweight 56.4kg: Mehdi Eljamari (MAR) beat Abrorbek Madiminbekov (UZB), Split points decision
Super heavyweight 94 kg: Adnan Mohammad (IRN) beat Mohammed Ajaraam (MAR), Split points decision
Lightweight 60kg: Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Faridoon Alik Zai (AFG), RSC round 3
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Taha Marrouni (MAR) beat Mahmood Amin (EGY), Unanimous points decision
Light welterweight 64.5kg: Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE), Unanimous points decision
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Haroun Baka (ALG), KO second round
The specs
The specs: 2019 Audi Q8
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 340hp @ 3,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 2,250rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
