The Farnborough Airshow opens on Monday in the face of turbulence from Britain’s shock decision to exit the European Union.
The event held every two years southwest of London traditionally features a battle between US titan Boeing and Europe’s Airbus for supremacy on the order books.
Organisers know there is little chance to beat the record US$201 billion of business - both firm airplane orders and commitments - clinched in 2014, with the industry beset by major production backlogs.
Ahead of the meeting, some airlines have posted profit warnings linked to expected fallout from Brexit.
Britain’s referendum to quit the 28-nation European Union has cast a shadow over the air show that runs from Monday until Sunday.
The vote sent financial markets tanking and sparked worries about global economic fallout that could weigh on demand for airline travel.
Brexit “is likely to have an impact over the medium term” on demand for new planes, independent aviation analyst John Strickland warned.
“Order books are currently full but if demand softens then ultimately this could lead to reduced orders or possibly some cancellations,” he told AFP.
However, Argon Consulting analyst Jean-Louis Dropsy forecast Brexit would not affect the sector, arguing it relies more on keen demand from outside Europe - and particularly from emerging markets.
“Brexit should have no impact on the global industry, which is driven mainly by air traffic growth, mainly in Asia, India and the Middle East,” he said.
Removal from the single European airspace could however lead to airlines passing on higher taxes to passengers, in turn curtailing demand for aircraft in the long run.
Since the June 23 referendum result, British Airways owner IAG and British no-frills airline EasyJet have issued profit warnings.
And while incidents such as the recent EgyptAir plane crash and the terrorist attacks on Brussels and Istanbul airports have also taken their toll on the sector, ultra-low oil prices have slashed fuel costs for airlines.
The aerospace industry is already being dogged by a record backlog for orders of planes, which - alongside weaker demand from airlines - contributed to a 30-percent decline in aircraft purchases last year.
“I’m not expecting any big orders this time around as most major airlines already have significant backlogs of already-ordered aircraft,” noted Strickland.
Kepler Cheuvreux analysts noted that Airbus and Boeing could still deliver surprises.
“The consensus is that few new orders are expected at the show,” they wrote in a note to clients.
“We are nevertheless wary of such a cautious view, arguing that Boeing celebrating its 100th anniversary at the show is likely to make a splash with some key orders.
“In response, we expect Airbus to have kept a few key orders for announcement at the show,” they added.
Orders could feature also for Bombardier’s fuel-efficient C Series jetliner as the Canadian firm looks to challenge the dominance of Airbus and Boeing in medium-range, single-aisle aircraft.
US-based Delta Air Lines in April placed an order for 75 CS100 Bombardier aircraft with an option to purchase 50 more in a deal worth $5.6bn.
Stephane Albernhe, analyst at Archery Strategy Consulting, predicted announcements from Bombardier at Farnborough.
“If they manage to save this programme, we will not have a duopoly,” she said.
So far this year, Boeing is leading the orders race with Airbus, winning 276 firm orders since the start of the year compared with its European rival’s 183.
It comes as the industry faces a record backlog of about 13,400 civilian aircraft orders - 94 per cent of which are for the world’s two leading planemakers.
Whatever the outcome for orders, this week’s show will be lit up by the F-35 fighter jet carrying out a flypast over Farnborough, two years after the world’s most expensive warplane’s appearance was cancelled owing to engine problems.
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
City's slump
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D - C Palace, 2-2
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L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
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The biog
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Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
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