It has become commonplace to refer to the fallout from last week's decision by Dubai to ask Dubai World's creditors for a six-month delay in payments as a "debt crisis". It is not.
What Dubai and the UAE now face would be more accurately described as a crisis of transparency and information. For it is the uncertainty over why Dubai made its decision and what it plans to do next that has generated the anxiety now gripping financial markets.
The situation at Dubai World does not appear to pose the kind of systemic risk that created past crises, either the one that erupted after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers last year or previous debt crises in Asia or Latin America.
That does not mean that last week's events cannot trigger a broader crisis of confidence in emerging markets inflated by cheap dollars.
Economists have been warning that a wave of government stimulus has created an unsustainable bubble in developing economies not unlike the one that burst in September last year. But Dubai World's current predicament is part of the clean-up of the debris of that earlier bubble.
Feeding the confusion are a number of misconceptions about what is going on at Dubai World and what risk it poses to the financial system here in the UAE and abroad. One of the most commonly repeated is that Dubai World has US$59 billion (Dh216.7bn) in debt.
Dubai World and the companies it controls have between them $59bn in liabilities. But that number includes a lot of obligations that are not conventional debts, analysts say.
Excluding these, Dubai has a much more manageable $23.8bn in debts, according to Deutsche Bank's estimates. Of that, only about $5bn is owed directly by Dubai World.
And not all of the remaining $18.8bn is affected by last week's decision: Dubai has already said that ports operator DP World and the Jebel Ali Free Zone Authority (JAFZA) will not be included in the debt restructuring.
The Nakheel sukuk is due on December 14, but it now appears that Dubai will ask that holders of the bond agree to delayed payment. Clearly, this is not what markets expected. Judging from the price of Nakheel's sukuk the day of the announcement, its repayment was considered a virtual certainty.
If Nakheel does not pay on December 14, with or without the agreement of its creditors, the non-payment will not represent a sovereign event. Nakheel's sukuk was never a government debt, never enjoyed the explicit backing of the Government of Dubai and never had a credit rating.
Dubai's Government underlined this distinction in its bond prospectus in October, which analysts at Moody's Investors Service determined was a signal to lower their rating on several Dubai issuers ? they could no longer be sure the Government would bail them out.
While this means lower credit ratings and higher borrowing costs, it does not mean that Dubai World will or will not repay other debts or that other Dubai borrowers will ask for delays on their debts.
One source of uncertainty stems from the fact that the Dubai Financial Support Fund has divulged no details on its criteria for providing emergency funding or to whom it has provided that funding. Greater transparency on this score would undoubtedly have helped to avert the current confusion and avoid even more going forward.
Another more dangerous misconception is that if Dubai World misses the December 14 Nakheel payment, banks to which it owes money will suffer a debilitating blow.
Most of the banks that lent Dubai World money most likely started provisioning against it at the height of the crisis earlier this year. The same goes for owners of Nakheel's bonds. Many of them undoubtedly bought those bonds when they were selling at steep discounts and are even now sitting on profits.
Another puzzler is the worry that Dubai's move stands to trigger a crisis among other sovereign borrowers in emerging markets.
But Dubai does not pose a sovereign risk the way Latvia poses a sovereign risk. Dubai is more like California: if and when it runs out of money, it cannot print more. That means there is less risk that if Dubai could not afford to pay its debts, it would undermine the value of the dirham and spark a sudden outflow of capital.
Much of the panic in global markets over Dubai seems to stem more from the timing of the announcement, which came during a long holiday weekend in the US.
And with the year-end holidays approaching, analysts say investors were looking for a signal to take some of their money off the table. Dubai unwittingly gave them that excuse.
warnold@thenational.ae
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
LIVERPOOL SQUAD
Alisson Becker, Virgil van Dijk, Georginio Wijnaldum, James Milner, Naby Keita, Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah, Joe Gomez, Adrian, Jordan Henderson, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Adam Lallana, Andy Lonergan, Xherdan Shaqiri, Andy Robertson, Divock Origi, Curtis Jones, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Neco Williams
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHayvn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Flinos%2C%20Ahmed%20Ismail%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efinancial%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2044%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eseries%20B%20in%20the%20second%20half%20of%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHilbert%20Capital%2C%20Red%20Acre%20Ventures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Five personal finance podcasts from The National
To help you get started, tune into these Pocketful of Dirham episodes
·
Balance is essential to happiness, health and wealth
·
What is a portfolio stress test?
·
What are NFTs and why are auction houses interested?
·
How gamers are getting rich by earning cryptocurrencies
·
Should you buy or rent a home in the UAE?
What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.
The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.
Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.
However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.
Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Raha%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kuwait%2FSaudi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tech%20Logistics%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2414%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Soor%20Capital%2C%20eWTP%20Arabia%20Capital%2C%20Aujan%20Enterprises%2C%20Nox%20Management%2C%20Cedar%20Mundi%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20166%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020