Gulf officials planning a common currency have yet to schedule a new timetable after the original deadline passed. Rich-Joseph Facun / The National
Gulf officials planning a common currency have yet to schedule a new timetable after the original deadline passed. Rich-Joseph Facun / The National

Europe shows GCC pitfalls on currency



When GCC policymakers return from their summer holidays in Europe this month, they will have reflected with worry on the deepening turmoil gripping the continent.

For the failings exposed in the euro project provide a cautionary tale for officials in the region planning a similar monetary union for the GCC.

These plans have been inspired by the framework used to establish the EU and its currency. The European Central Bank has even provided technical support as part of the preparatory work for this region's project.

But the foundations of the European model now look shaky. It seems prudent for GCC officials to slow their plans while they learn the lessons from Europe.

The four GCC governments involved in the project - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain - may now "tighten the rules" in light of the euro-zone crisis, rather than scrap the project altogether, said Dr Abdel Aluwaisheg, the GCC director general of international economic relations.

Officials have yet to schedule a new timetable for the introduction of the currency after this year's original deadline passed.

Dr Aluwaisheg was the first to lead a GCC delegation to Europe in 2002 to discuss how the region could put in place a timetable for action. Advice included how to adopt convergence and fiscal criteria, capping everything from a member nation's level of inflation to debt.

"As we found out from the Greek crisis, the monitoring and complexion of the criteria was not as iron-clad as we thought," he says.

"The first lesson to be learnt is that you have to make sure your data is comparable and everyone uses the same method and variables. The second lesson is to make sure the data is correct."

Several euro-zone nations fell into debt problems because the fiscal rules were not sufficiently robust. Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain racked up huge debts to finance budget deficits. Such a strategy proved unsustainable when the global financial crisis significantly raised the cost of plugging deficits. As a result, Greece, Portugal and Ireland required costly bailouts and markets remain worried about the fiscal health of Italy and Spain.

Fortunately, the economies of the Gulf are starting from a firmer footing, and no GCC state has ever defaulted on its sovereign debt. Stronger oil prices this year have helped to bolster the fiscal accounts of GCC governments.

But recent events have shown GCC states are susceptible to altering their budget plans. Unrest linked to the Arab Spring forced Saudi Arabia and Bahrain to breach their spending targets for this year. Saudi Arabia unveiled new expenditure increases of US$129 billion (Dh473.8bn).

Bahrain has added $860 million spending to cover an increase in salaries and pensions, widening its deficit to $3.1bn. The deficit is above the 3 per cent of GDP limit set by the Gulf monetary union project.

Another weakness of the euro-zone project to be starkly exposed by the debt saga is the absence of a common eurobond backed by all euro governments.

Although the 17 members of the euro zone share a common currency, they do not share a treasury. As a result, individual governments have been responsible for raising their own finance in international capital markets.

But recent bailouts of some troubled nations have created uncertainty among investors about whether individual bonds are backstopped by the entire euro zone.

Giulio Tremonti, the Italian economy minister, said last week the debt crisis would have been avoided if the euro zone had issued eurobonds to borrow collectively. The prospect of a eurobond has been firmly resisted by Germany and France, however, because it would raise their financing costs substantially.

GCC governments are at an earlier stage of building a debt capital market in the region. But the euro-zone crisis shows the limitation of launching a monetary union project without the ability to sell joint bonds, says Brad Bourland, the chief economist of Jadwa Investment in Saudi Arabia.

"There's certainly some lessons to be learnt for the GCC," he says. "I would think the GCC project will slow down while they think through how they can avoid the euro-zone situation happening here."

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

MOTHER%20OF%20STRANGERS
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Suad%20Amiry%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Pantheon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20304%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950