Oil is expected to rise further this year amid supply constraints and higher demand as global economies continue to rebound from the coronavirus pandemic on the back of vaccination programmes and stimulus measures. And when the global economy regains its pre-pandemic momentum in a couple of years, crude could rise to $100 a barrel, according to analysts.
Brent, the international benchmark for more than half of the world’s crude, rallied to above $74 a barrel on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate, the key gauge for US oil, breached the $72 level. In early trading on Thursday Brent receded to $73.86 and WTI was trading at $71.66.
“With oil demand expected to rise strongly this summer and supply growth lagging demand growth, oil inventories will likely fall faster over the coming months,” Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, said on Wednesday. “As such, we still see prices moving higher over the next three months.”
International efforts to widely distribute vaccines and a fall in infections mean policymakers are bullish about global growth. More than 2.42 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines had been administered in 180 countries as of Wednesday, according to data collected by Bloomberg.
We still see prices moving higher over the next three months
The Group of seven high-income countries (G7) also pledged to donate 1 billion Covid-19 doses over the next year to help poor countries inoculate their populations. Coronavirus infections are also declining in India, the world’s third-biggest consumer of oil.
Switzerland-based UBS raised its September price forecasts to $78 per barrel for Brent and $75 per barrel for WTI amid higher demand but expects a “modest setback toward the end of the year” as Opec+ adds extra supply to the market.
Crude prices rallied after a group of top oil traders predicted high demand, which could prop up prices for the remainder of this year.
Executives from Vitol, Glencore and Trafigura and Goldman Sachs told the FT Global Commodities summit on Tuesday that $100 crude was a real possibility, with prices already reaching their highest level in two years this week.
“I actually think that there is a chance for oil to get up to those numbers,” Jeremy Weir, executive chair of Trafigura, told the summit.
“The issue for oil is not demand ... the supply situation is quite concerning. We’ve gone from 15 years of reserves to 10 years. We’ve seen capital expenditure go from five years ago at $400 billion a year to just $100bn a year.”
Private oil majors such as Exxon, BP and Chevron are planning to curtail capital investment in order to manage emissions targets and prepare for an eventual slowdown in oil demand globally, Kuwait’s Kamco Invest said in a report earlier this week.
According to data from the International Energy Agency, spending by oil companies is expected to hit a six-year low during 2021, with the biggest decline coming from private oil majors, partially offset by higher spending mostly from national oil companies.
Alex Sanna, the top oil trader at Glencore, also said that $100 oil was looking more likely. “If you’re cutting supply without at the same time addressing your demand that is when you can get price dislocations,” Mr Sanna said. “You’re really only one or two events away from a material spike in oil prices.”
Oil prices are no longer related to demand outlook “but [are based] very much around the supply and what Saudis are doing and what Opec is doing on holding back supply”, Matt Stanley, senior broker at Dubai-based Starfuels, said.
“The longer they keep, the higher the prices will get and the markets are certainly looking like they wanted to go that way ... and $80 is certainly on the cards.”
James Davis, director of short-term global oil service and head of upstream oil at London-based FGE, also expects oil to trade close to $80 per barrel on a daily basis in the coming months as demand continues to recover from the Covid-19 impact.
But crude prices could touch $100 after 2022 when the world returns to its pre-Covid demand growth trajectory but “supply and spare capacity are short, thanks to a deeper cutback in global upstream investment starting last year”, Vandana Hari, founder and chief executive of Singapore-based Vanda Insights, said.
However, she expects the current demand spike – prompted by a combination of summer holidays and the release of pent-up demand with the end of Covid curbs in the US and Europe – will be transitory.
"A clearer picture of more sustainable demand growth can be had only towards the end of Q3," she said.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 575bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh554,000
On sale: now
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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Brief scores:
Toss: Rajputs, elected to field first
Sindhis 94-6 (10 ov)
Watson 42; Munaf 3-20
Rajputs 96-0 (4 ov)
Shahzad 74 not out
