Like the Pony Express giving way to the railroad and telegraph in 1861, signs are everywhere of upheaval in transport technologies. Last week’s announcement by GM chief executive Mary Barra, that the biggest US automaker will phase out all combustion engine models by 2035, is a warning to oil producers that their biggest customer may be riding off into the sunset.
GM is not the first or only. Volkswagen, Nissan and Ford have already pledged to be carbon-neutral by 2050. Daimler, owner of Mercedes-Benz, will only sell carbon-neutral models by 2039. Honda intends two-thirds of sales by 2030 to be electric or hydrogen.
And this is not just about competing with Tesla’s personal autos. The Joe Biden administration wants to make the entire federal government fleet, 645 000 vehicles, zero-emission. That includes light cars, postal delivery trucks and a host of other types. Electric bicycles, bulldozers, rickshaws, cranes, military vehicles and other designs will fill special markets worldwide.
National commitments for carbon-neutrality by mid-century, increasingly broad corporate goals, and bans on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in the UK by 2030, France by 2040, will drive the uptake of battery transport.
Oil and automobile executives have historically been sceptical of electric vehicles, pointing to high sales prices even with tax breaks, short ranges, long recharging times and a scarcity of stations, and poor performance in hot or cold weather. As with any fast-growing sector, there have been mis-steps and excessive hype.
For instance, Nikola Motors, a wannabee-Tesla developer of electric and hydrogen-powered trucks, was embarrassed when it had to admit a video of one of its vehicles just showed it rolling down a hill. Intended partnerships with GM and BP collapsed as a result. Yet the firm’s market capitalisation is still a respectable $9 billion.
These complaints are reminiscent of those who scoffed at the internet in the mid-1990s. Of course, it was slow and before Google, near impossible to find useful information. But the potential was evident.
Electric cars already offer a superior driving experience. With many fewer moving parts, maintenance costs are much lower. Noise is reduced and local air pollution eliminated. Ranges are improving, with the option of charging vehicles at home or the workplace and good enough for most daily use. That means fewer trips to highway stations.
Electric cars have been estimated to reach price parity with combustion engines when the cost of batteries falls to $100 per kilowatt-hour. GM aims to hit that in a new plant soon, and eventually reach $70 per kilowatt-hour.
As legacy carmakers turn to electrics, they will cease improving combustion engine models. That in turn will hasten petrol and diesel cars’ obsolescence. They will not be able to meet ever more stringent clean air and fuel economy standards and will increasingly look dated.
That could be an opportunity for oil firms. Saudi Aramco has for at least ten years been developing advanced combustion engine technologies. These include a partnership with Mazda on compression ignition engines that run on gasoline (petrol) instead of the usual diesel, with a potential improvement in fuel economy from 6.9 litres per 100 km falling to 5.2 litres per 100 km.
It is working with two start-ups, Achates Power and INNengine, on opposed pistons for a lorry engine that runs on petrol or diesel with almost twice the mileage of a conventional rig, smaller, lighter and easier to manufacture.
Finally, to cut emissions, Aramco has experimented with on-board capture of carbon dioxide, unveiling in December 2019 a heavy truck, which could capture 40 per cent of its emissions. The market for long-range goods vehicles, which batteries will find harder to conquer, will remain a bastion of oil demand for some time.
However, in order to have an impact, innovative engines will have to appear in commercial vehicles soon. The threat to oil demand is very real. Light vehicles represent about 26 per cent of global oil demand at a pre-pandemic 100 million barrels per day; road freight is another 18 per cent. Of the other leading uses, power generation and home heating, totalling another 12 per cent, are very amenable to replacement by natural gas and renewables.
Of course, growth of transport in south Asia and Africa will partly compensate. But the petroleum industry should take seriously the prospect of half of its market evaporating within a couple of decades. 2030 is not far off when exploring and developing a new oil-field or constructing a greenfield refinery takes a decade or more.
A market that has ceased to grow will face the industry with new dynamics. The natural decline rate of output from existing fields is higher than the likely drop in demand, so continuing investment will be needed. There will still be boom-and-bust cycles, still periods of underinvestment, tight supplies and spikes in prices. But production will be inexorably rationed. The low-cost producers will survive, if they do not cut back output too far in a continuation of Opec+ arrangements.
But the pressure on their competitiveness will be intense. Gulf countries, Nigeria, Russia, Brazil, even new entrants such as Guyana or old-stagers like the US and Norway, can all claim to be low-cost, and often low-carbon, producers in the right circumstances. A shrinking market will test these assertions to the limit.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
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THE%C2%A0SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.4-litre%20four-cylinder%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starting%20from%20Dh89%2C900%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Attacks on Egypt’s long rooted Copts
Egypt’s Copts belong to one of the world’s oldest Christian communities, with Mark the Evangelist credited with founding their church around 300 AD. Orthodox Christians account for the overwhelming majority of Christians in Egypt, with the rest mainly made up of Greek Orthodox, Catholics and Anglicans.
The community accounts for some 10 per cent of Egypt’s 100 million people, with the largest concentrations of Christians found in Cairo, Alexandria and the provinces of Minya and Assiut south of Cairo.
Egypt’s Christians have had a somewhat turbulent history in the Muslim majority Arab nation, with the community occasionally suffering outright persecution but generally living in peace with their Muslim compatriots. But radical Muslims who have first emerged in the 1970s have whipped up anti-Christian sentiments, something that has, in turn, led to an upsurge in attacks against their places of worship, church-linked facilities as well as their businesses and homes.
More recently, ISIS has vowed to go after the Christians, claiming responsibility for a series of attacks against churches packed with worshippers starting December 2016.
The discrimination many Christians complain about and the shift towards religious conservatism by many Egyptian Muslims over the last 50 years have forced hundreds of thousands of Christians to migrate, starting new lives in growing communities in places as far afield as Australia, Canada and the United States.
Here is a look at major attacks against Egypt's Coptic Christians in recent years:
November 2: Masked gunmen riding pickup trucks opened fire on three buses carrying pilgrims to the remote desert monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor south of Cairo, killing 7 and wounding about 20. IS claimed responsibility for the attack.
May 26, 2017: Masked militants riding in three all-terrain cars open fire on a bus carrying pilgrims on their way to the Monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor, killing 29 and wounding 22. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.
April 2017: Twin attacks by suicide bombers hit churches in the coastal city of Alexandria and the Nile Delta city of Tanta. At least 43 people are killed and scores of worshippers injured in the Palm Sunday attack, which narrowly missed a ceremony presided over by Pope Tawadros II, spiritual leader of Egypt Orthodox Copts, in Alexandria's St. Mark's Cathedral. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks.
February 2017: Hundreds of Egyptian Christians flee their homes in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula, fearing attacks by ISIS. The group's North Sinai affiliate had killed at least seven Coptic Christians in the restive peninsula in less than a month.
December 2016: A bombing at a chapel adjacent to Egypt's main Coptic Christian cathedral in Cairo kills 30 people and wounds dozens during Sunday Mass in one of the deadliest attacks carried out against the religious minority in recent memory. ISIS claimed responsibility.
July 2016: Pope Tawadros II says that since 2013 there were 37 sectarian attacks on Christians in Egypt, nearly one incident a month. A Muslim mob stabs to death a 27-year-old Coptic Christian man, Fam Khalaf, in the central city of Minya over a personal feud.
May 2016: A Muslim mob ransacks and torches seven Christian homes in Minya after rumours spread that a Christian man had an affair with a Muslim woman. The elderly mother of the Christian man was stripped naked and dragged through a street by the mob.
New Year's Eve 2011: A bomb explodes in a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria as worshippers leave after a midnight mass, killing more than 20 people.
Results:
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres
Winner: AF Al Sajanjle, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint (TB) | Group 2 | $250,000 (Turf) | 1,000m
Winner: Blue Point, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,600m
Winner: Muntazah, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson
8.15pm: Meydan Trophy Conditions (TB) | $100,000 (T) | 1,900m
Winner: Art Du Val, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.50pm: Balanchine Group 2 (TB) | $250,000 (T) | 1,800m
Winner: Poetic Charm, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (D) | 1,200m
Winner: Lava Spin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,410m
Winner: Mountain Hunter, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Recycle Reuse Repurpose
New central waste facility on site at expo Dubai South area to handle estimated 173 tonne of waste generated daily by millions of visitors
Recyclables such as plastic, paper, glass will be collected from bins on the expo site and taken to the new expo Central Waste Facility on site
Organic waste will be processed at the new onsite Central Waste Facility, treated and converted into compost to be re-used to green the expo area
Of 173 tonnes of waste daily, an estimated 39 per cent will be recyclables, 48 per cent organic waste and 13 per cent general waste.
About 147 tonnes will be recycled and converted to new products at another existing facility in Ras Al Khor
Recycling at Ras Al Khor unit:
Plastic items to be converted to plastic bags and recycled
Paper pulp moulded products such as cup carriers, egg trays, seed pots, and food packaging trays
Glass waste into bowls, lights, candle holders, serving trays and coasters
Aim is for 85 per cent of waste from the site to be diverted from landfill
'Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower'
Michael Beckley, Cornell Press
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier, in Bangkok
UAE fixtures Mon Nov 20, v China; Tue Nov 21, v Thailand; Thu Nov 23, v Nepal; Fri Nov 24, v Hong Kong; Sun Nov 26, v Malaysia; Mon Nov 27, Final
(The winners will progress to the Global Qualifier)
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When is VAR used?
• Goals
• Penalty decisions
• Direct red-card incidents
• Mistaken identity
Racecard
%3Cp%3E8.30pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E9pm%3A%20Yas%20Island%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E9.30pm%3A%20Saadiyat%20Island%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E10pm%3A%20Reem%20Island%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3E10.30pm%3A%20Arabian%20Triple%20Crown%20Round%203%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(PA)%20Dh300%2C000%20(T)%202%2C400m%3Cbr%3E11pm%3A%20Al%20Maryah%20Island%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company Profile
Company name: Fine Diner
Started: March, 2020
Co-founders: Sami Elayan, Saed Elayan and Zaid Azzouka
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and food delivery
Initial investment: Dh75,000
Investor: Dtec Startupbootcamp
Future plan: Looking to raise $400,000
Total sales: Over 1,000 deliveries in three months
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Read more about the coronavirus
The biog
Age: 46
Number of Children: Four
Hobby: Reading history books
Loves: Sports
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
