President Donald Trump called last month's slump in oil prices a "tax cut for America and the world". AFP
President Donald Trump called last month's slump in oil prices a "tax cut for America and the world". AFP

Trump asks Opec not to restrict supply ahead of today's meeting



US President Donald Trump went after Opec ahead of its meeting today, advising the oil exporters’ group to keep crude flowing and not curb supply as he continued to lobby for lower prices.

"Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!,” he tweeted on Wednesday.

The exporters’ group will convene in Vienna, where Opec and its allies will consider adopting output restricting measures following a dramatic 30 per cent decline in the price of oil since early October. President Trump called the price crash, which saw the price of Brent fall from $86 per barrel in October to $60, “a tax cut for America and the world”.

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Mr Trump has repeatedly tweeted ahead of Opec meetings and has exerted pressure on the group and its allies led by Russia, collectively known as Opec+, to keep prices low, particularly ahead of the US midterm elections that took place in November.

While Mr Trump may consider lower prices a boon for US consumers, it couldn’t come at a worse time for the country’s domestic energy industry. Record-high US supply of shale, rather than the May reversal of output curbs by Opec+, has been behind the latest oil price crash. Mr Trump's granting of waivers to eight countries importing crude has contributed to the rout at a time when Opec+ turned on the taps to make up for expected oil shortage after sanctions imposed on Tehran in November.

Low crude prices will likely hurt the growth of US shale more than any other energy industry, according to analysts.

Observers suggest that any Opec communique from today’s meeting will be coded in diplomacy to signal tightening output, while at the same time ensuring the measures won’t prompt outbursts from Mr Trump.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”