Results coming in late on Sunday unsurprisingly confirmed that Vladimir Putin will serve a fourth term as Russia’s president. His election win gives him a new-found position of strength to shape Russia’s foreign policy agenda; but crucially for the Arabian Gulf, it also raises key questions about the fate of the current Opec and non-Opec production agreement, with implications for both parties if the pact is not renewed or at least other alternative market stabilisation mechanisms are not put in place in 2019.
During his long tenure as Russia’s effective ruler President Putin has sought to reverse the country’s economic and political decline by rebuilding its military power. More recently, he has been instrumental in propping up global oil prices in partnership with Opec (and particularly Saudi Arabia), creating a mutually beneficial energy nexus with Arabian Gulf oil producers.
For such producers, the pact with Russia and other non-Opec producers in late-2016 to curb production to prop up oil prices established a mutually beneficial economic relationship, at a time when both sides desperately needed it; the fall of oil prices to under $30 per barrel in early 2016 put a massive strain on oil economies, which saw foreign exchange rates depleted, with austerity measures having to be introduced.
The road to the seemingly successful production deal of late 2016 was not an easy one; observers doubted it would succeed, given the geopolitical differences and the different operating frameworks of national oil companies and partly privatised national oil companies involved.
There is now much speculation on Russia’s next move ahead of the production deal’s expiry at the end of the year, and whether President Putin will be tempted to continue with the pact in 2019, opt out, or agree to a new form of mechanism to support oil prices.
The period from November 2014 to late 2016 was a difficult one for Opec members, with states divided on whether to freeze production or actually implement cuts, with uncertainty over whether other major oil producers would join such initiatives.
As part of its now famous market share strategy adopted in November 2014, Saudi Arabia increased oil production in March 2015 to its highest level in at least 12 years. The key message from Saudi Arabia’s then Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi was that Opec would not cut production without cooperation from non- Opec producers, notably Russia.
There was widespread distrust of Russia among Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies; it seems the country had pledged to trim production by 300,000 barrels per day in 2008, only for such cuts to never materialise. Hence the unambiguous Saudi stance: the kingdom would only cut if other Non OPEC members do so.
Saudi Arabia’s stance from 2014-16 initially seemed logical, in that the country had waited for years to build a dominant production market share, and was understandably reluctant to give it up in the face of rising US shale production. In hindsight however, such a stance did not take into account the remarkable capacity for US shale producers to move quickly and act as “swing producers”, a role Opec had always amongst conventional oil producers.
The shock of seeing oil prices fall below $30 per barrel in January 2016 focused minds, and a new strategy had to be considered, including painful compromises by Saudi Arabia in allowing Iran to be excluded from any formal production cuts.
This total production freeze on all Opec and non-Opec producers, which had included Iran in earlier discussions, had been a stumbling block for a number of reasons. Notably, there was no verification process in place to monitor who was actually freezing and complying, with Russia insisting that Opec implement such a mechanism before they agree to join in any freeze or production agreement.
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Sometimes it takes two strong leaders to look beyond past issues and chart a new course of mutual interest. Such a course began to take shape in September 2016, with the signing of an agreement in China between Saudi Arabia and Russia to cooperate in world oil markets. Such an agreement came about following a very friendly meeting between President Putin and the then Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with Putin lavishing praise on the Prince as “someone who is a reliable partner with whom you can reach agreement and can be certain those agreements can be honoured”.
The Saudi Deputy Crown Prince reciprocated, stating that global oil stability was “impossible without the cooperation of Russia and KSA”. While no specific output agreement was reached at the time, all talk at reviving another freeze was now discarded; both Iraq and Iran had made it clear they would not go along with such a freeze, with Iraq announcing a large increase in production by another 300,000 – 400,000 barrels per day. Iran meanwhile insisted raising its market share was a national and sovereign right.
The new Saudi energy policy seemed to acknowledge this impasse, and concluded that there were “two type of freezes”: an ‘official’ freeze and a practical one; the latter became of paramount importance, with a practical freeze involving countries producing at their capacity, but with room for increases limited in the short term, with few Opec producers having true spare capacity, especially Iran, which again in hindsight has been borne by events.
A ‘freeze’ basically signifies the fact that supply and demand are in balance and that Opec and others do not have to intervene in a radical manner, and as such, there was no need to cut back on production. But given the fact that the market has still some way to go before a true balancing takes place between supply and demand, the only viable option goes back to some sort of production cuts by both Russia and Saudi Arabia to underpin prices at above $50-$55 levels.
Following the successful Algiers OPEC meeting in September 2016, the Russians decided that the time was right to join the agreed OPEC production cuts, and committed to its own 300,000 bpd cutback from 2017. In return, it was granted the chairmanship of the Non -OPEC monitoring committee to ensure compliance of this group . The ‘excellent’ relationship between Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid Falih has added to this successful pact.
Looking forward, markets might still be taken by surprise if the Opec and non-Opec pact is not renewed either in its current form beyond 2018, or more likely under a new, longer-term mechanism that allows for production increases or cut backs depending upon market conditions.
The key is that Opec and non-Opec countries have both learned from this coordinated approach that it is far better than the previous mutually-antagonistic policy, which was on the verge of splitting Opec apart and making it an irrelevant organisation.
President Putin has to weigh the long term benefits of further deepening the existing Russian – Saudi energy alliance, in the face of increased Western sanctions and pressure, as well as calls from his own partly privatised national oil company executives that production cuts are harming their investors. It is also something that Saudi Aramco will have to consider post its long-awaited IPO, on how its future oil production policy will be driven by both sovereign and market forces.
Dr Mohamed Ramady is an energy economist and geopolitical expert on the GCC, and former professor at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, and co author of 'OPEC in a Post Shale world – where to next?’. His latest book is ‘Saudi Aramco 2030: Post IPO challenges'.
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Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Who is Ramon Tribulietx?
Born in Spain, Tribulietx took sole charge of Auckland in 2010 and has gone on to lead the club to 14 trophies, including seven successive Oceania Champions League crowns. Has been tipped for the vacant New Zealand national team job following Anthony Hudson's resignation last month. Had previously been considered for the role.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
A general guide to how active you are:
Less than 5,000 steps - sedentary
5,000 - 9,999 steps - lightly active
10,000 - 12,500 steps - active
12,500 - highly active
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'Cheb%20Khaled'
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs: Macan Turbo
Engine: Dual synchronous electric motors
Power: 639hp
Torque: 1,130Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Touring range: 591km
Price: From Dh412,500
On sale: Deliveries start in October
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
The years Ramadan fell in May
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
FIXTURES
New Zealand v France, second Test
Saturday, 12.35pm (UAE)
Auckland, New Zealand
South Africa v Wales
Sunday, 12.40am (UAE), San Juan, Argentina
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic
Power: 169bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh54,500
On sale: now
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Copa del Rey
Semi-final, first leg
Barcelona 1 (Malcom 57')
Real Madrid (Vazquez 6')
Second leg, February 27
The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
Copa del Rey
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Semi-final, first leg
Wednesday (midnight UAE)
