The Fifa World Cup, intended to showcase friendly competition between nations, is of course a hotbed of intense rivalries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman oversaw proceedings in Thursday’s opening game. Meanwhile, by a stroke of luck, Iran enjoyed late success on Friday. The US, which along with Canada and Mexico won the bid to host the event in 2026, is not on the field but comments from the sidelines. All this makes it much like Opec.
The Saudi Arabian oil team’s problem today is too much winning. The market has tightened significantly as the eventual result of their policy of production restraint. They have been assisted by continuing strong worldwide demand and by the collapse in Venezuela, then by the prospect of lost exports from Iran as the US moves to reimpose sanctions.
Prices hovering around $80 per barrel conjure the spectre of demand destruction, and diplomatic pressure from US President Donald Trump’s anti-Opec tweets and from other major customers such as India. After strongly supporting the US decision to leave the nuclear deal with Iran, Riyadh is now looking to prevent the oil price getting out of control.
After he and Mr Putin assembled an all-stars team of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Oman and other leading producers, Prince Mohammed spoke of a “10 to 20 year agreement” for oil market management. It remains to be seen whether production restraint is the right way to play for the long-term, but with threats from surging US production and the rise of electric vehicles, some kind of far-sighted strategy is needed.
Few of the "Opec+" group can raise production significantly – only Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Russia and, given a deal with the Kurdish region on pipeline access, Iraq. Iran feels cheated; having agreed to some production restraint after it emerged from the Obama-era penalties, it now faces losing market share to its rivals again. Exports were down sharply in early June, as South Korean, Turkish and European buyers cut shipments, perhaps in anticipation of sanctions.
Both Tehran and Caracas, also under (milder) American sanctions, object to Opec policy being made in response to US demands, and reducing prices at their expense. Venezuela, historically hopeless at football, is not doing much better at oil production. Its output may dip below 1 million barrels per day shortly, a humiliating fall for Latin America’s once-titan. Libyan oil production is threatened again by fighting at its ports.
In the short term, there is not much Iran, Venezuela, Libya or other declining producers such as Qatar, Angola or Algeria can do if the stronger members go it alone on raising production. Sanctions on Iran might prove ineffective, political change in Venezuela might restore its output, or global recession may hit demand.
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Read more:
Russia a growing force in region but careful approach needed
Business Extra podcast: Russia, Saudi Arabia and the state of oil markets
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Russia is in the most interesting position. Moscow wants to retain its alignment with Iran, forged by cooperation in their Syrian brutality, and it does not want to seem to play to Mr Trump’s whistle. Yet ideas that it would resell sanctioned Iranian crude at higher prices do not make much sense and China, not Russia, will be the biggest investor in Iranian oil-fields.
The Kremlin also wishes to sustain its influence with Opec, particularly in the Arabian Gulf, which it has developed through the "Vienna deal". Its oil companies have been champing at the bit to raise production again, particularly the largest, Rosneft, controlled by Igor Sechin, Mr Putin’s sidekick. And there is some concern over rising domestic fuel prices during the summer harvesting season.
Saudi Arabia and Russia could quietly boost production to a degree. The Saudi summer, bringing higher domestic demand, is upon us. After over-complying with production cuts for a while, they could employ a period of moderate under-compliance. .
That might help keep the market from boiling over until the next scheduled meeting in November, or perhaps an extraordinary meeting in September or October. By then, the initial impact of the Iran sanctions would be clearer.
Saudi production was up 86,000 bpd in May, although it normally rises in summer anyway to meet domestic power generation. Russia’s output at the start of June was 11.1 million bpd, slightly above its 10.98 million bpd target.
Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Falih has said an Opec deal to boost production is “inevitable”, while his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak has proposed easing the targeted cuts to 1.5 million barrels per day in June, allowing 300,000 bpd to come back on the market. Further increases could then be phased in during the rest of the year.
The Saudi-Russia axis would rather Opec reached a formal position acknowledging the need for more oil to back up a commitment to stable prices. To win acceptance from other members, they could concede to a smaller boost in output, preferable to a breakaway move.
This will work for now, but by November, they need to agree to the game’s new rules.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Where to apply
Applicants should send their completed applications - CV, covering letter, sample(s) of your work, letter of recommendation - to Nick March, Assistant Editor in Chief at The National and UAE programme administrator for the Rosalynn Carter Fellowships for Mental Health Journalism, by 5pm on April 30, 2020.
Please send applications to nmarch@thenational.ae and please mark the subject line as “Rosalynn Carter Fellowship for Mental Health Journalism (UAE programme application)”.
The local advisory board will consider all applications and will interview a short list of candidates in Abu Dhabi in June 2020. Successful candidates will be informed before July 30, 2020.
The%20specs
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2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
Final: UAE beat Qatar by nine wickets
Third-place play-off: Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by five runs
Table
1 UAE 5 5 0 10
2 Qatar 5 4 1 8
3 Saudi 5 3 2 6
4 Kuwait 5 2 3 4
5 Bahrain 5 1 4 2
6 Maldives 5 0 5 0
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The bio:
Favourite film:
Declan: It was The Commitments but now it’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
Heidi: The Long Kiss Goodnight.
Favourite holiday destination:
Declan: Las Vegas but I also love getting home to Ireland and seeing everyone back home.
Heidi: Australia but my dream destination would be to go to Cuba.
Favourite pastime:
Declan: I love brunching and socializing. Just basically having the craic.
Heidi: Paddleboarding and swimming.
Personal motto:
Declan: Take chances.
Heidi: Live, love, laugh and have no regrets.
List of alleged parties
May 12, 2020: PM and his wife Carrie attend 'work meeting' with at least 17 staff
May 20, 2020: They attend 'bring your own booze party'
Nov 27, 2020: PM gives speech at leaving party for his staff
Dec 10, 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
Dec 13, 2020: PM and his wife throw a party
Dec 14, 2020: London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey holds staff event at Conservative Party headquarters
Dec 15, 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
Dec 18, 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
