Oil prices are expected to trade between the $60 and $70 per barrel range towards the second half of the year with the market expected to balance itself out, according to Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp).
The price scenario held up “barring a sharp slowdown in the global economy”, the Riyadh-headquartered multilateral bank said.
"In the last few months of 2018, the tensions between fundamentals, sentiment and prospects about the macro environment all shaped price behaviour and this will continue in 2019,” it added in its report.
Opec's primary challenge this year would be to address the physical market imbalances, and assert credibility to consistently manage expectations and sentiment, the bank cautioned.
Opec and sovereign producer allies outside the exporters’ group led by Russia agreed in December to cut production to the tune of 1.2 million barrels per day starting January for a period of six months. The decision came amid a drastic drop in oil prices, which after rallying for much of the year at $70 per barrel for Brent, peaked at $86.9 in October before plunging to 30 per cent of its value the following month.
Rising production from North American shale basins, particularly the US, which surged past 11 million bpd in August, outpaced sovereign producers Saudi Arabia and Russia and was one of the factors behind the market’s oversupply, the report said.
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Read more:
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Apicorp noted that the cuts to production undertaken by Opec and allies may not be sufficient to balance the market, which may see build up of inventory levels, particularly as US shale is expected to top 12 million bpd during the second half of the year.
"The dynamics of oil prices in 2019 will also depend in large part on Opec's effectiveness in implementing the cuts, balancing the market and reinforcing the credibility of its signals,” said the report.
"Assuming that the cut is implemented in full, Opec's reduction of 0.8 million bpd from October level, estimated by secondary sources at around 33 million bpd, will keep Opec output at about 32.2 million bpd, implying that stocks would continue to build at a rate of around 0.6 million bpd,” it added, citing figures from the International Energy Association.
Moody’s also raised similar concerns about the effectiveness of Opec’s output cuts and ability to maintain compliance this year, as the reduction comes after already record-high production by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The producers had decided to boost production in May to moderate rallying oil prices amid pressures from the US to push them lower ahead of midterms.
The supply boost - largely undertaken by Saudi Arabia and Russia - as well as the grant of waivers to countries to trade with Iran following implementation of sanctions in November led to a glut in the market and the eventual steep decline in prices, which fell to $54 for Brent by year-end.
"Very high Saudi and Russian production, in particular, has heightened supply volatility, so whether Opec and Russia maintain production discipline and renew agreements to limit output are key concerns going into the new year,” said Steve Wood, Moody's managing director, oil and gas.
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Essentials
The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Windhoek, with a combination of Emirates and Air Namibia, cost from US$790 (Dh2,902) via Johannesburg.
The trip
A 10-day self-drive in Namibia staying at a combination of the safari camps mentioned – Okonjima AfriCat, Little Kulala, Desert Rhino/Damaraland, Ongava – costs from $7,000 (Dh25,711) per person, including car hire (Toyota 4x4 or similar), but excluding international flights, with The Luxury Safari Company.
When to go
The cooler winter months, from June to September, are best, especially for game viewing.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What is hepatitis?
Hepatitis is an inflammation of the liver, which can lead to fibrosis (scarring), cirrhosis or liver cancer.
There are 5 main hepatitis viruses, referred to as types A, B, C, D and E.
Hepatitis C is mostly transmitted through exposure to infective blood. This can occur through blood transfusions, contaminated injections during medical procedures, and through injecting drugs. Sexual transmission is also possible, but is much less common.
People infected with hepatitis C experience few or no symptoms, meaning they can live with the virus for years without being diagnosed. This delay in treatment can increase the risk of significant liver damage.
There are an estimated 170 million carriers of Hepatitis C around the world.
The virus causes approximately 399,000 fatalities each year worldwide, according to WHO.
