Global oil output hit a record of 100 million barrels per day in August, but the market may tighten and prices rise as exports from Iran and Venezuela decline, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
"We are entering a very crucial period for the oil market," the IEA said in its latest monthly report. "Things are tightening up."
The global record came as output from Opec rose to a nine-month high of over 32 million barrels per day (mb/d).
The group had agreed in Vienna in June to push up production in order to put a cap on soaring prices.
In recent months, prices have wavered comfortably between the $70 and $80 per barrel on the Brent crude futures contract.
According to the IEA, a rebound in Libyan production, near-record Iraqi output and higher supply from Nigeria and Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia have so far managed to offset the impact of shrinking production from crisis-hit Venezuela and Iran.
But with the crisis in Venezuela showing no sign of abating, and with new US sanctions on Iran's oil industry set to come into force on November 4, other producers may have to ramp up production even further if they want to limit the impact on the market.
"It remains to be seen if other producers decide to increase their production. The price range for Brent of $70 to $80 per barrel in place since April could be tested," the IEA said.
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Read more:
China turns to Middle East as it shuns US oil imports
Oil market calm is short-lived, says IEA
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In May, US President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and said other countries must stop buying oil from Tehran or face American sanctions.
And hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have fled their country since the nation became engulfed in a political crisis that has sent the economy into free fall.
"The situation in Venezuela could deteriorate even faster, strife could return to Libya and the 53 days to November 4 will reveal more decisions taken by countries and companies with respect to Iranian oil purchases," the IEA said.
Output from Opec member Iran in August hit its lowest level since July 2016, the IEA said, "as more buyers distanced themselves from Tehran ahead of looming US sanctions", the report said.
Top buyers China and India have already cut back purchases from Tehran, and other countries are likely to do the same between now and November.
"While Iranian exports have fallen by nearly 500,000 barrels per day since May, shipments from Iraq and Saudi Arabia have risen by 200,000 barrels per day and 60,000 barrels per day respectively," the IEA added.
In Venezuela, too, production dipped in August to 1.24 million barrels a day, and should it continue to decline, may hit 1 million barrels a day at the end of 2018.
Opec, of which Venezuela is a member, had already warned that the country's output was at a three-decade low.
"If Venezuelan and Iranian exports do continue to fall, markets could tighten and oil prices could rise without offsetting production increases from elsewhere," the IEA cautioned.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
The biog
Name: Timothy Husband
Nationality: New Zealand
Education: Degree in zoology at The University of Sydney
Favourite book: Lemurs of Madagascar by Russell A Mittermeier
Favourite music: Billy Joel
Weekends and holidays: Talking about animals or visiting his farm in Australia
Crime%20Wave
%3Cp%3EHeavyweight%20boxer%20Fury%20revealed%20on%20Sunday%20his%20cousin%20had%20been%20%E2%80%9Cstabbed%20in%20the%20neck%E2%80%9D%20and%20called%20on%20the%20courts%20to%20address%20the%20wave%20of%20more%20sentencing%20of%20offenders.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERico%20Burton%2C%2031%2C%20was%20found%20with%20stab%20wounds%20at%20around%203am%20on%20Sunday%20in%20Goose%20Green%2C%20Altrincham%20and%20subsequently%20died%20of%20his%20injuries.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%26nbsp%3B%E2%80%9CMy%20cousin%20was%20murdered%20last%20night%2C%20stabbed%20in%20the%20neck%20this%20is%20becoming%20ridiculous%20%E2%80%A6%20idiots%20carry%20knives.%20This%20needs%20to%20stop%2C%E2%80%9D%0D%20Fury%20said.%20%E2%80%9CAsap%2C%20UK%20government%20needs%20to%20bring%20higher%20sentencing%20for%20knife%20crime%2C%20it%E2%80%99s%20a%20pandemic%20%26amp%3B%20you%20don%E2%80%99t%20know%20how%20bad%20it%20is%20until%20%5Bit%E2%80%99s%5D%201%20of%20your%20own!%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
New schools in Dubai
