Oil market recovery looks “fragile” with demand for the third quarter of 2020 to remain weak, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly market outlook.
The Paris-based agency revised down its estimates for the third quarter by 200,000 barrels per day, citing weakness in North America and India, which have registered the highest number of Covid-19 infections.
"This surely raises doubts about the robustness of the anticipated economic recovery and thus the prospects for oil demand growth,” the IEA said in its latest outlook.
The agency left its overall demand estimate for 2020 unchanged at 91.7 million bpd, down 8.4m bpd from 2019. Its estimate for 2021 stands at 97.2m bpd, which is up 5.5m bpd year-on-year.
The forecast echoes Opec’s latest monthly market outlook. The group left its crude demand forecast for 2020 largely unchanged in its latest oil market report. Global oil demand is expected to decline by 9.5m bpd in 2020, with overall consumption expected at 90.3m bpd.
Opec also revised its demand forecast for 2021 down by 80,000 bpd reflecting slower growth for OECD and non-OECD countries. Demand growth for next year is expected at a "solid" 6.5m bpd, said.
The IEA also noted that oil supply for September fell as Opec+ countries improved their compliance with the output restriction pact.
The group is currently drawing back 7.7m bpd from the markets, which is up for review at end of this year.
“Maintenance and unplanned outages curbed output in Brazil, Canada and the North Sea,” the report said.
The IEA on Tuesday said the pandemic may usher in the slowest decade of energy demand in a century and the global response to the coronavirus can reshape the energy landscape for years to come.
The Paris-based agency warned of a fragile recovery for oil markets reeling from the economic impact of the pandemic and urged countries to pursue a transition to cleaner forms of energy.
UAE energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said on Tuesday that the producer alliance is expected to continue to increase production incrementally by the end of the year.
The minister said the group is likely to reduce the output cut to 5.7-6m bpd until April 2022.
Opec+ undertook an historic level of production cuts of up to 9.7m bpd between May and July to reverse a record plunge in demand due to the pandemic.
The specs
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Hotel Silence
Auður Ava Ólafsdóttir
Pushkin Press
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
MATCH INFO
Norwich City 0 Southampton 3 (Ings 49', Armstrong 54', Redmond 79')
What should do investors do now?
What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor?
Should I be euphoric?
No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.
So what happened?
It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.
"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."
Should I buy? Should I sell?
Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.
"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.
All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.
Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.
Will the rally last?
No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.
"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
Specs
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Results
5pm: Wadi Nagab – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Al Falaq, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
5.30pm: Wadi Sidr – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Fakhama, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
6.30pm: Wadi Shees – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mutaqadim, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 – Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Wadi Tayyibah – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Poster Paint, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
One in four Americans don't plan to retire
Nearly a quarter of Americans say they never plan to retire, according to a poll that suggests a disconnection between individuals' retirement plans and the realities of ageing in the workforce.
Experts say illness, injury, layoffs and caregiving responsibilities often force older workers to leave their jobs sooner than they'd like.
According to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research, 23 per cent of workers, including nearly two in 10 of those over 50, don't expect to stop working. Roughly another quarter of Americans say they will continue working beyond their 65th birthday.
According to government data, about one in five people 65 and older was working or actively looking for a job in June. The study surveyed 1,423 adults in February this year.
For many, money has a lot to do with the decision to keep working.
"The average retirement age that we see in the data has gone up a little bit, but it hasn't gone up that much," says Anqi Chen, assistant director of savings research at the Centre for Retirement Research at Boston College. "So people have to live in retirement much longer, and they may not have enough assets to support themselves in retirement."
When asked how financially comfortable they feel about retirement, 14 per cent of Americans under the age of 50 and 29 per cent over 50 say they feel extremely or very prepared, according to the poll. About another four in 10 older adults say they do feel somewhat prepared, while just about one-third feel unprepared.
"One of the things about thinking about never retiring is that you didn't save a whole lot of money," says Ronni Bennett, 78, who was pushed out of her job as a New York City-based website editor at 63.
She searched for work in the immediate aftermath of her layoff, a process she describes as akin to "banging my head against a wall." Finding Manhattan too expensive without a steady stream of income, she eventually moved to Portland, Maine. A few years later, she moved again, to Lake Oswego, Oregon. "Sometimes I fantasise that if I win the lottery, I'd go back to New York," says Ms Bennett.
MATCH INFO
Champions League last 16, first leg
Tottenham v RB Leipzig, Wednesday, midnight (UAE)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press
Honeymoonish
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The specs
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Brief scores:
Toss: South Africa, chose to field
Pakistan: 177 & 294
South Africa: 431 & 43-1
Man of the Match: Faf du Plessis (South Africa)
Series: South Africa lead three-match series 2-0
All the Money in the World
Director: Ridley Scott
Starring: Charlie Plummer, Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Williams, Christopher Plummer
Four stars
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