The Danish bank expects a pick-up in Brent to $40 levels by "autumn" and a revival in demand to 100 million barrels per day by 2021. Reuters
The Danish bank expects a pick-up in Brent to $40 levels by "autumn" and a revival in demand to 100 million barrels per day by 2021. Reuters
The Danish bank expects a pick-up in Brent to $40 levels by "autumn" and a revival in demand to 100 million barrels per day by 2021. Reuters
The Danish bank expects a pick-up in Brent to $40 levels by "autumn" and a revival in demand to 100 million barrels per day by 2021. Reuters

Oil bounces back as China factory activity revives


Jennifer Gnana
  • English
  • Arabic

Oil prices bounced back after US crude fell to an 18-year low as markets remained optimistic over the revival of Chinese factory activity.

The world's second-largest economy, which went into lockdown  in January is slowly coming back online after the country brought the coronavirus pandemic under control.

China's March manufacturing purchasing manager's index bounced back to 52 from a record low of 35.7 in February, beating analysts' expectations. A result below 50 indicates a contraction.

The revival indicates possible higher demand for crude in the near future in the world's largest oil importing country, amid an excess of supply in the the market. Crude is set to have the worst quarter on record.

Brent, the international benchmark, was trading at $23.1 per barrel at 5.38 pm UAE time on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate, which tracks North American crude grades, was trading at $20.96 per barrel.

WTI rebounded after falling below $20 on Sunday and Monday as US shale producers who need higher breakeven prices to remain profitable, buckled under the growing demand crunch and countries continue to enforce lockdowns.

Swiss bank UBS estimates a decline in demand of 10 million barrels per day year-on-year or more for the second quarter of 2020.

"To stop on-land inventories from hitting their capacity limits, oil prices need to adjust quickly as more supply is on the way. Hence, there’s an increasing need for Brent and WTI prices to trade below $20 per barrel in the second quarter," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at the bank.

Oil prices are likely to stabilise as Chinese demand for power, which declined steeply because of quarantine measures and factory shutdowns, rebounds.

Consumption of electricity fell 7.8 per cent year-on-year during the first two months of 2020, a drop that was "sharper" than the one seen during the 2008-09 recession, IHS Markit said in a report.

Power demand growth is expected to return to positive for the remainder of the year as China returns to work. China has removed restrictions on movement as it reports largely no new cases of the virus.

IHS estimates Chinese power demand has already started to show " year-on-year growth in March in terms of both average load and peak load."

Despite the uptick, China will not be immune to a global recession, as Europe and the US grapple with widespread outbreaks in their territories which will reflect on trade with Beijing.

Chinese growth will soften to 3.9 per cent this year, compared with IHS' earlier estimate of 5.4 per cent before the pandemic. Power demand growth is also expected at a tepid 2.8 per cent for this year, compared with an average annual growth rate of 7 per cent during the last decade.

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Tearful appearance

Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday. 

Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow. 

She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.

A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.

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1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull

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3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge

4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own

5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed

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British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

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The Florida Project

Director: Sean Baker

Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe

Four stars

Indian origin executives leading top technology firms

Sundar Pichai

Chief executive, Google and Alphabet

Satya Nadella

Chief executive, Microsoft

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President and chief executive, Mastercard

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Schedule
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MATCH INFO

Liverpool 0

Stoke City 0

Man of the Match: Erik Pieters (Stoke)

BIOSAFETY LABS SECURITY LEVELS

Biosafety Level 1

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Study microorganisms such as Staphylococcus which causes food poisoning.

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Working in Level 2 requires special training in handling pathogenic agents.

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Biosafety Level 3

These labs contain material that can be lethal if inhaled. This includes SARS coronavirus, MERS, and yellow fever.

Significant extra precautions are taken with staff given specific immunisations when dealing with certain diseases.

Infectious material is examined in a biological safety cabinet.

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Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

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Lewis Hamilton in 2018

Australia 2nd; Bahrain 3rd; China 4th; Azerbaijan 1st; Spain 1st; Monaco 3rd; Canada 5th; France 1st; Austria DNF; Britain 2nd; Germany 1st; Hungary 1st; Belgium 2nd; Italy 1st; Singapore 1st; Russia 1st; Japan 1st; United States 3rd; Mexico 4th

MATCH INFO

CAF Champions League semi-finals first-leg fixtures

Tuesday:

Primeiro Agosto (ANG) v Esperance (TUN) (8pm UAE)
Al Ahly (EGY) v Entente Setif (ALG) (11PM)

Second legs:

October 23

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2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe

3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers

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10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate

MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman

Director: Jesse Armstrong

Rating: 3.5/5

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