Oil exports from Iraq's southern terminals have fallen so far this month, suggesting the country is trying to step up compliance with Opec output cuts, but it has a long way to go to match its peers in the producer group.
Exports from southern Iraq - the outlet for most of the country's crude - in the first 14 days of August averaged 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd), down 80,000 bpd from July, according to shipping data tracked by Reuters and independent tracking by an industry source.
If sustained, this would mean exports are down for a second month, giving weight to Iraq's insistence it is complying with Opec's curbs.
Still, a second industry source familiar with Iraq's exports said it was too early to tell whether shipments would be down over the whole month.
"Southern exports are expected to at least stay the same level as July, looking at the first couple of weeks so far, unless there is bad weather," this source said. "But exports from the north will be lower."
Iraq, Opec's second-largest producer, has adhered less to the supply deal with non-Opec producers than Opec peers such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Opec, Russia and other producers are cutting output by about 1.8 million bpd until March 2018 to get rid of a glut and support prices.
Based on the most recent Opec figures, Iraq carried out only 28 per cent of the 210,000-bpd supply cut it had pledged in July, versus more than 100 per cent for top exporter Saudi Arabia.
Iraq was one of several countries that met a panel comprising Russia, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, plus officials from Opec's Vienna headquarters, last week in Abu Dhabi to discuss ways to boost compliance.
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Read more:
Saudi, Iraq oil ministers agree to stronger oil-cut commitment
IEA says world oil markets re-balancing
Iraq economic growth subdued by risks from ISIL and volatile oil prices, IMF says
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Iraqi officials have argued that the production level from which it is expected to reduce output is too low and that exports, more important for the market than production, should be used to measure compliance.
A joint Opec and non-Opec committee formed to monitor compliance will also start studying export data along with production, the Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Falih said last month.
Iraqi and independent figures show southern exports are lower. Iraq said it exported 3.23 million bpd in July and 3.25 million bpd in June. That compares with 3.32 million bpd in January, when the cut took effect. Exports can be volatile day-to-day, affected by weather and technical snags.
Mr Al Falih, who met his Iraqi counterpart Jabar Ali Al Luaibi last week in Saudi Arabia, said he was comfortable with Iraq's commitment to the deal since its exports had fallen "in concrete quantities" in recent months.
Mr Al Luaibi confirmed Iraq's commitment to the pact and its willingness to work with other producers to restore stability to global markets, Iraqi Oil Ministry spokesman Asim Jihad said.
"There was a message from the Iraqi prime minister conveyed by Mr Al Luaibi to the officials of the kingdom, in which he stresses Iraq's keenness to enhance cooperation in all fields, including the oil and gas sector and others, as well as to confirm Iraq's commitment to the decisions of Opec," Mr Jihad said.
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Read more:
Indian imports of Iraqi oil soar in July
Japan to lend Iraq $195 million
Podcast: Business Extra episode 29 - Opec's tricky balancing act
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The export drop in recent months, industry sources say, also reflects seasonally higher domestic consumption.
Temperatures in Iraq can top 50C, boosting demand for crude and products for power generation.
This could mean exports rise again in winter when seasonal domestic demand dips, unless Iraq caps foreign sales to comply with the Opec agreement, the second industry source said.
Oil traders are sceptical Iraq would cut output much more, after it argued last year in negotiations on the Opec deal that it should be exempt due to a need for cash to fight ISIL. The country expanded output capacity in recent years.
"The Iraqis won't cut. They need the money," a trade source said.
The bulk of Iraq's oil is exported via the southern terminals. Smaller amounts are shipped from northern Iraq via Ceyhan in Turkey.
Northern exports have averaged about 520,000 bpd so far in August, shipping data shows, down slightly from Iraq's figure of about 540,000 bpd in July.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Where to submit a sample
Volunteers of all ages can submit DNA samples at centres across Abu Dhabi, including: Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (Adnec), Biogenix Labs in Masdar City, NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City, NMC Royal Medical Centre, Abu Dhabi, NMC Royal Women's Hospital, Bareen International Hospital, Al Towayya in Al Ain, NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
Match info
Karnataka Tuskers 110-3
J Charles 35, M Pretorius 1-19, Z Khan 0-16
Deccan Gladiators 111-5 in 8.3 overs
K Pollard 45*, S Zadran 2-18
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champioons League semi-final:
First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2
Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)
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Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (All UAE kick-off times)
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (11.30pm)
Saturday
Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)
FA Augsburg v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Werder Bremen (6.30pm)
SC Paderborn v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Monchengladbach (9.30pm)
Sunday
Cologne v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)
Mainz v FC Schalke (9pm)
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Atalanta v Juventus (6pm)
AC Milan v Napoli (9pm)
Torino v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
Sunday
Bologna v Parma (3.30pm)
Sassuolo v Lazio (6pm)
Roma v Brescia (6pm)
Verona v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sampdoria v Udinese (9pm)
Lecce v Cagliari (11.45pm)
Monday
SPAL v Genoa (11.45pm)
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 575bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh554,000
On sale: now
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
SCHEDULE
6.30pm Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm: Handicap Dh170,000 (D) 1,600m
7.40pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 1,200m
8.50pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 2,000m
9.25pm:Handicap Dh185,000 (D) 1,400m
Amith's predicted winners:
6.30pm: Down On Da Bayou
7.05pm: Etisalat
7.40pm: Mulfit
8.15pm: Pennsylvania Dutch
8.50pm: Mudallel
9.25pm: Midnight Sands
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
