Iran's possible return to oil markets likely to dominate Opec+ talks

Iran’s possible return to global oil markets is expected to dominate discussions when Opec+ countries meet this week.

The producer group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will convene its ministerial monitoring committee on Monday while the main session is scheduled for Tuesday.

Opec+ plans to incrementally add 2 million barrels per day by July despite a surge in Covid-19 infections in several markets, particularly India.

Saudi Arabia, which supported the group’s restrictions by volunteering to withdraw 1 million bpd until April, will phase out the cuts by the end of this month.

“Energy markets remain fixated on both the coming Opec+ ministerial meeting and likely revival of the Iran nuclear deal,” said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst for the Americas region at Oanda.

“Opec+ will likely move forward with the June increase of 700,000 bpd but may decide to hold off a July supply increase.”

The alliance may adopt a “more cautious approach” even if the revival in oil demand warrants an increase in July, Oanda said in a note.

The resumption of Iranian output may come sooner than expected. Tehran, which came to the negotiating table with the US to reinstate the nuclear deal, is expected to reach closure before Iran’s presidential elections on June 18.

However, the possible return of Iranian crude to oil markets may complicate the recovery of demand, said Mr Moya.

“Brent could swing by $10 in either direction but energy traders are still optimistic the market will stay balanced,” he said.

Oil rounded off its best week since April on Friday, with international benchmark Brent registering a weekly gain of 3.57 per cent. West Texas Intermediate, which tracks US crude grades, gained 4.3 per cent during the week.

Brent fell 0.69 per cent to settle at $68.72 a barrel on Friday while WTI closed 0.79 per cent lower at $66.32 a barrel.

Iran will look to rapidly bring more output to the market after its exports were curbed by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy.

Projections by London-based consultancy Facts Global Energy suggest that Iran’s production halved from 3.8 million bpd before sanctions were reimposed in 2018 to below 1.9 million bpd.

Tehran was exempted from Opec+ cuts last year when the alliance introduced some of the steepest production cuts in history, drawing back 9.7 million bpd from markets in response to a significant drop in demand caused by the coronavirus-induced slowdown.

The group has since been gradually phasing out cuts and aims to bring back more supply in line with growing demand.

However, demand may rise over the summer as Covid-19 infection rates decline slightly in big oil consumers such as India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer.

Indian refineries have cut their refinery runs to accommodate lockdown restrictions across several states.

The total number of Covid-19 cases in India are above 27.7 million with the country registering 171,726 new cases and 3,563 deaths on Friday, according to Worldometer, which tracks the pandemic globally.

"[The] embattled Indian and Japanese crude runs are set to recover over summer as infection rates are expected to continue declining and movement restrictions phased out," said consultancy JBC Energy in a note on Friday.

"Consequently, we currently see the global crude balance net short by around 3 million bpd over July-August, making the case for a return of at least part of the Opec+ barrels increasingly convincing."

Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

Emergency phone numbers in the UAE

Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing

Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111

Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre

Emirates airline – 600555555

Etihad Airways – 600555666

Ambulance – 998

Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries

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The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

Labour dispute

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