IEA trims demand outlook for oil amid rising prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2018 as the highest prices in three years put a brake on consumption.

“The recent jump in oil prices will take its toll,” said the Paris-based agency, which advises most major economies on energy policy. Crude has climbed 17 per cent this year, trading near $78 a barrel in London on Wednesday.

Opec and its allies have finally succeeded in their 16-month campaign to clear a global oil glut, with inventories falling below their five-year average for the first time since 2014, the agency said. Markets are set to tighten further as output sinks in Venezuela and the US re-imposes sanctions on Iran. Yet the resulting price rally, while giving financial relief to producers, appears to be backfiring.

Besides lowering its demand outlook, stronger prices also prompted the IEA to increase estimates for supply from Opec’s rivals, particularly the US. Production outside Opec will grow by 1.87 million barrels a day this year, or 85,000 a day more than previously thought.

The agency trimmed its 2018 world demand growth projection by 40,000 barrels a day to 1.4 million a day, projecting total consumption at 99.2 million barrels a day.

Although the global economy remains robust, oil prices have surged about 75 per cent since last June, and “it would be extraordinary if such a large jump did not affect demand growth”, the IEA said. The “effect of higher prices should in particular become apparent in gasoline demand in the next few months,” it said.

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Saudi Arabia urges global oil producers to continue cooperation in 2019

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Developing nations are especially sensitive to crude’s rally after many of them phased out fuel subsidies when prices were lower, the agency added.

The biggest unknown for the oil market now is the impact of US sanctions on Iran, which are being reimposed after US President Donald Trump abandoned an international nuclear accord with the country, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter.

While it’s “too soon to say what will happen this time,” the agency said, Iran’s fellow Opec members could fill the gap because their pact to restrain supply leaves them with spare production capacity.

Opec’s Arabian Gulf producers and Russia have about 1.3 million barrels a day of output idle, more than the 1.2 million barrels a day of Iranian exports that were lost when sanctions were previously imposed in 2012, according to the report.

Although Opec and its partners have resolved to curb supply until at the least the end of this year, they’ll meet next month to review their policy.

The IEA, established in the 1970s to oversee the energy security of consuming nations, said it welcomed a statement by Saudi Arabia acknowledging the need to mitigate any shortage that might arise. Markets face other disruptions besides Iran, with Venezuela’s output plunging to the lowest since the 1950s as its economy unravels.

“The potential double supply shortfall represented by Iran and Venezuela could present a major challenge for producers to fend off sharp price rises and fill the gap,” the IEA said.

A State of Passion

Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi

Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah

Rating: 4/5

THE SPECS

Engine: 3.5-litre supercharged V6

Power: 416hp at 7,000rpm

Torque: 410Nm at 3,500rpm

Transmission: 6-speed manual

Fuel consumption: 10.2 l/100km

Price: Dh375,000

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Our legal advisor

Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.

Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.

Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.

FIGHT CARD

Bantamweight Hamza Bougamza (MAR) v Jalal Al Daaja (JOR)

Catchweight 67kg Mohamed El Mesbahi (MAR) v Fouad Mesdari (ALG)

Lighweight Abdullah Mohammed Ali (UAE) v Abdelhak Amhidra (MAR)

Catchweight 73kg Mostafa Ibrahim Radi (PAL) v Yazid Chouchane (ALG)

Middleweight Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) v Badreddine Diani (MAR)

Catchweight 78kg Rashed Dawood (UAE) v Adnan Bushashy (ALG)

Middleweight Sallaheddine Dekhissi (MAR) v Abdel Emam (EGY)

Catchweight 65kg Rachid Hazoume (MAR) v Yanis Ghemmouri (ALG)

Lighweight Mohammed Yahya (UAE) v Azouz Anwar (EGY)

Catchweight 79kg Omar Hussein (PAL) v Souhil Tahiri (ALG)

Middleweight Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Laid Zerhouni (ALG)

RESULTS

5pm: Sweihan – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: Shamakh, Fernando Jara (jockey), Jean-Claude Picout (trainer)

5.30pm: Al Shamkha – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: Daad, Dane O’Neill, Jaber Bittar

6pm: Shakbout City – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Ghayyar, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: Gold Silver, Sandro Paiva, Ibrahim Aseel

7pm: Masdar City – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Musannef, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

7.30pm: Khalifa City – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Ranchero, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

The studios taking part (so far)

Punch
Vogue Fitness
Sweat
Bodytree Studio
The Hot House
The Room
Inspire Sports (Ladies Only)
Cryo

Results for Stage 2

Stage 2 Yas Island to Abu Dhabi, 184 km, Road race

Overall leader: Primoz Roglic SLO (Team Jumbo - Visma)

Stage winners: 1. Fernando Gaviria COL (UAE Team Emirates) 2. Elia Viviani ITA (Deceuninck - Quick-Step) 3. Caleb Ewan AUS (Lotto - Soudal)

The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'

Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.

Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.

"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.

"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.

"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."

ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS

%3Cp%3EBy%202030%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%20aims%20to%20achieve%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%2039.3%20million%20visitors%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20nearly%2064%25%20up%20from%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%20Dh90%20billion%20contribution%20to%20GDP%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20about%2084%25%20more%20than%20Dh49%20billion%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%20178%2C000%20new%20jobs%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20bringing%20the%20total%20to%20about%20366%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%2052%2C000%20hotel%20rooms%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20up%2053%25%20from%2034%2C000%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%207.2%20million%20international%20visitors%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20almost%2090%25%20higher%20compared%20to%202023's%203.8%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%203.9%20international%20overnight%20hotel%20stays%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2022%25%20more%20from%203.2%20nights%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A