The rising number of coronavirus infections are sparking concern over a potential slowdown in global demand growth for oil in the second half of 2020, as countries consider reimposing strict measures to contain a potential second wave of the pandemic.
Oil demand growth has slumped this year due to strict mobility measures in place across the world but measures taken by Opec and its allies to restrict supply shored up prices. Brent was down 0.57 per cent at $45.20 per barrel at 7.39am UAE time, while WTI was down 0.40 per cent at $42.72 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency last week cut demand growth projections for the first time in many months by 140,000 barrels per day, while Opec pared its forecast by 100,000 bpd.
“Demand recovery, especially for the second half of this year will be slower than the first half of this year,” said Zhuwei Wang, lead analyst, Middle East commodity analytics at S&P Global Platts.
He cited the potential for a second outbreak of the virus as a looming concern for oil markets. The coronavirus has infected more than 22 million people as of Tuesday, according to Worldometer, which tracks the pandemic. Around 778,102 have succumbed to the disease so far. Countries that contribute to significantly driving demand growth for oil, such as the US, Brazil, India, Russia and South Africa, have the highest number of infections globally.
Platts Analytics estimates that oil demand will decline by 8.2 million bpd year-on-year in 2020, but will increase again by 6.7m bpd in 2021.
“In 2021 even if we are seeing some kind of demand recovery, the absolute will still be 1.5m bpd lower than 2019,” said Mr Wang.
In comparison, the IEA has forecast an 8.1m bpd slide in demand for 2020, while Opec expects oil demand to grow by 7m bpd in 2021.
Oil demand growth is expected to remain tepid long-term once the pandemic’s impact on education and the future workforce is also considered.
“In the mid-term maybe ... 400 million [fewer] people will enter into the middle class in the next 10 to 20 years and that actually will be translated into a huge amount of demand losses,” Mr Wang said.
"Covid-19 will lead to a lot of young people dropping out of school, [resulting in a] labour force with potential lower wages, leading to lower disposable income and that will all translate into lower demand growth,” he added.
In June, the World Bank estimated a 5.2 per cent contraction in global gross domestic product for 2020 as the pandemic triggers the deepest recession since the Great Depression.
Consultancy Wood Mackenzie also maintains a pessimistic view of oil demand recovery in the near term, citing the continued impact of Covid-19.
“Our H1 2020 outlook anticipates an oil price rebound as demand starts rising post-coronavirus. However, a second large-scale lockdown [across major economies] would deepen the recession, and possibly delay any rebound in GDP until 2022. This would have a significant impact on the oil and gas sectors,” said Dulles Wang, director, Americas gas research at Wood Mackenzie.
The consultancy sees Brent rising to $86 per barrel by 2030 in its base scenario. However, in the event of a second wave, resulting in widespread movement restrictions, the international benchmark is forecast to fall to $70 per barrel over the same period.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, Opec+ producers are continuing to cut back production, albeit in a tapered manner. The group, which is currently slashing 7.7m bpd, is convening its joint ministerial monitoring committee on Wednesday.
The group will "reiterate the strong compliance level” but maintain focus on elevating the level of conformity in an environment where oil demand remains fragile, said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS.
Opec+ which has Saudi Arabia and Russia at the helm, will receive plans from Iraq, Angola, Kazakhstan and Nigeria on implementing compensatory cuts to make up for their lack of compliance in the second quarter.
UBS expects the markets to be undersupplied for the rest of the year, with Brent reaching $55 per barrel in the first half of 2021. Supply from the US shale basins, however, is unlikely to recover until West Texas Intermediate climbs above the $50 per barrel mark, Mr Staunovo said.
Napoleon
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Match info
Athletic Bilbao 0
Real Madrid 1 (Ramos 73' pen)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Find the right policy for you
Don’t wait until the week you fly to sign up for insurance – get it when you book your trip. Insurance covers you for cancellation and anything else that can go wrong before you leave.
Some insurers, such as World Nomads, allow you to book once you are travelling – but, as Mr Mohammed found out, pre-existing medical conditions are not covered.
Check your credit card before booking insurance to see if you have any travel insurance as a benefit – most UAE banks, such as Emirates NBD, First Abu Dhabi Bank and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, have cards that throw in insurance as part of their package. But read the fine print – they may only cover emergencies while you’re travelling, not cancellation before a trip.
Pre-existing medical conditions such as a heart condition, diabetes, epilepsy and even asthma may not be included as standard. Again, check the terms, exclusions and limitations of any insurance carefully.
If you want trip cancellation or curtailment, baggage loss or delay covered, you may need a higher-grade plan, says Ambareen Musa of Souqalmal.com. Decide how much coverage you need for emergency medical expenses or personal liability. Premium insurance packages give up to $1 million (Dh3.7m) in each category, Ms Musa adds.
Don’t wait for days to call your insurer if you need to make a claim. You may be required to notify them within 72 hours. Gather together all receipts, emails and reports to prove that you paid for something, that you didn’t use it and that you did not get reimbursed.
Finally, consider optional extras you may need, says Sarah Pickford of Travel Counsellors, such as a winter sports holiday. Also ensure all individuals can travel independently on that cover, she adds. And remember: “Cheap isn’t necessarily best.”
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
US tops drug cost charts
The study of 13 essential drugs showed costs in the United States were about 300 per cent higher than the global average, followed by Germany at 126 per cent and 122 per cent in the UAE.
Thailand, Kenya and Malaysia were rated as nations with the lowest costs, about 90 per cent cheaper.
In the case of insulin, diabetic patients in the US paid five and a half times the global average, while in the UAE the costs are about 50 per cent higher than the median price of branded and generic drugs.
Some of the costliest drugs worldwide include Lipitor for high cholesterol.
The study’s price index placed the US at an exorbitant 2,170 per cent higher for Lipitor than the average global price and the UAE at the eighth spot globally with costs 252 per cent higher.
High blood pressure medication Zestril was also more than 2,680 per cent higher in the US and the UAE price was 187 per cent higher than the global price.
THREE
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Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Women & Power: A Manifesto
Mary Beard
Profile Books and London Review of Books
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Pakistan Super League
Previous winners
2016 Islamabad United
2017 Peshawar Zalmi
2018 Islamabad United
2019 Quetta Gladiators
Most runs Kamran Akmal – 1,286
Most wickets Wahab Riaz –65
RACE CARD
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 1,000m
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Al Ain Mile Group 3 (PA) Dh350,000 1,600m
8pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Amith's selections:
5pm: AF Sail
5.30pm: Dahawi
6pm: Taajer
6.30pm: Pharitz Oubai
7pm: Winked
7.30pm: Shahm
8pm: Raniah
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
BAD%20BOYS%3A%20RIDE%20OR%20DIE
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Mercedes V250 Avantgarde specs
Engine: 2.0-litre in-line four-cylinder turbo
Gearbox: 7-speed automatic
Power: 211hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 350Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.0 l/100 km
Price: Dh235,000
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Company%C2%A0profile
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Squads
Sri Lanka Tharanga (c), Mathews, Dickwella (wk), Gunathilaka, Mendis, Kapugedera, Siriwardana, Pushpakumara, Dananjaya, Sandakan, Perera, Hasaranga, Malinga, Chameera, Fernando.
India Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Pandey, Rahane, Jadhav, Dhoni (wk), Pandya, Axar, Kuldeep, Chahal, Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar, Thakur.
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
More on Quran memorisation:
Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
Sri Lanka's T20I squad
Thisara Perera (captain), Dilshan Munaweera, Danushka Gunathilaka, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Ashan Priyanjan, Mahela Udawatte, Dasun Shanaka, Sachith Pathirana, Vikum Sanjaya, Lahiru Gamage, Seekkuge Prasanna, Vishwa Fernando, Isuru Udana, Jeffrey Vandersay and Chathuranga de Silva.
Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
