Global oil demand is not expected to recover until 2022, the International Energy Agency said in its latest oil market report.
Demand for crude in 2020 is set to drop by 8.1 million barrels per day - the steepest decline in history, the agency said.
However, the recent gains in prices indicate that the worst for the oil markets is over. Demand is expected to recover by 5.7m bpd in 2021.
"While the oil market remains fragile, the recent modest recovery in prices suggests that the first half of 2020 is ending on a more optimistic note," the IEA, which has its headquarters in Paris, said.
"New data show that demand destruction in the early part of the year was slightly less than expected, although still unprecedented."
Oil prices rose to the highest levels in three months in early June, supported by the supply cuts undertaken by the Opec+ alliance.
Brent reached $42.30 per barrel in early June, while West Texas Intermediate, which plunged into negative territory in April, rose as high as $39.60 per barrel.
Brent was up 1 per cent at $40.79 per barrel, while WTI was up 1 per cent at $38.12 per barrel at 4.20pm UAE time.
The IEA expects global supply to also drop 7.2m bpd in 2020, registering only a modest increase of 1.8m bpd in 2021. The agency based this assessment on Opec+ achieving 100 per cent compliance for its production restrictions. The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is cutting back 9.7m bpd until July, with tapered cuts to remain in place until April 2022.
US production meanwhile is not likely to recover significantly, in spite of WTI hovering about $40 per barrel this month.
The IEA estimates US production to have fallen to 10.5m bpd in June, a 2.4m bpd decline from its record high in November.
High crude and product stocks will also constrain producers from selling more to refiners, the report said.
The biggest hit to global oil demand comes from the slowdown in air traffic, said the IEA.
"The industry will continue to be a drag on oil demand through 2021, with our first estimate showing that, having fallen by 3m bpd in 2020, jet/kerosene demand will rebound by only 1m bpd in 2021, leaving it below the pre-crisis level," the report said.
Global air traffic will be nearly 55 per cent lower this year compared with 2019, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Meanwhile, global oil supply declined by 11.8m bpd in May, which the agency attributed to record cuts implemented by Opec+ as well as production shut-ins in North America and elsewhere. Supply is expected to pick-up by a modest 1.7m bpd in 2021. The IEA based this assumption on the gradual easing of Opec+ cuts as well as increases in output from Norway, Brazil, Guyana and the possibility of Libyan barrels coming back into the market.
Supply from the US is meanwhile set to decline by 900,000 bpd this year and a further 300,000 bpd in 2021, unless prices surge higher and fresh investments flow into the shale patch.
The agency remains optimistic over the recovery of demand for the second half of the year as lockdown measures ease.
"We have also seen a strong rebound in India in May, although demand is still well below year-ago levels," the report said.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
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Race card:
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Gran Gala del Calcio 2019 winners
Best Player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)
Best Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta)
Best Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Best Goal: Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria vs Napoli)
Best Team: Atalanta
Best XI: Samir Handanovic (Inter); Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli), Joao Cancelo (Juventus*); Miralem Pjanic (Juventus), Josip Ilicic (Atalanta), Nicolo Barella (Cagliari*); Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
Serie B Best Young Player: Sandro Tonali (Brescia)
Best Women’s Goal: Thaisa (Milan vs Juventus)
Best Women’s Player: Manuela Giugliano (Milan)
Best Women’s XI: Laura Giuliani (Milan); Alia Guagni (Fiorentina), Sara Gama (Juventus), Cecilia Salvai (Juventus), Elisa Bartoli (Roma); Aurora Galli (Juventus), Manuela Giugliano (Roma), Valentina Cernoia (Juventus); Valentina Giacinti (Milan), Ilaria Mauro (Fiorentina), Barbara Bonansea (Juventus)
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
