The Chinese economy. US trade wars. Iran sanctions. The role of Russia. The future of shale. Oil markets are having a turbulent time, and that shows no sign of ending. Geopolitics, economic uncertainty, and the risks and benefits of new technologies dominate the current energy conversation.
Though oil prices have recovered from dramatic lows in 2014 and 2015, recent volatility driven by countervailing geopolitical and geo-economic trends have left many wondering: “what is going on with the price of oil?” It’s been a wild ride and one that is perplexing those outside and inside the market. Don’t expect the uncertainties to dissipate: they are part of the market.
The rise of renewables and the US shale revolution led many to hope that geopolitics would play less of a role in the energy system. But as last year demonstrated, energy and geopolitics go hand-in-hand, perhaps now more than ever. The question we must answer in 2019 is not how to remove geopolitics from energy, but how to respond to the opportunities and challenges presented to us. That will be the key focus of the Global Energy Forum, which my Washington-based organisation, the Atlantic Council, is launching this week.
In the short term, the three biggest drivers all come from the US: oil sanctions on Iran, the US trade war with China, and the US shale revolution. As the world’s largest economy, the world’s largest military, and the world’s largest producer of natural gas and oil, it isn’t surprising that the US has an outsized impact on markets and geopolitics. However, the role the US is playing in the energy system would be a surprise for market watchers 10 years ago, when US oil production was in dramatic decline and the country was building liquefied natural gas importing – not exporting – terminals.
While many anticipated that Iran sanctions would drive prices up, a surprise number of sanctions exemptions, a slowdown in China (perhaps in part driven by the trade dispute with the US), and the continued remarkable growth of US shale oil production, has brought oil prices down $30 per barrel from highs in October. Even a planned Opec – non-Opec production cut of 1.2 million barrels per day did not do much for the market. Going forward, watch for ratcheting up of sanctions on Iran with the countervailing impact of a potentially dramatic economic slowdown in China – as evidenced by recent news from Apple – and continuing pressure on China’s economy from the US on trade and other issues.
__________
Read more:
UAE energy minister says 1.2 million barrel-per-day cut is enough to balance markets
Trump credits his ‘talent’ for oil price drop
Oil Watchers See $70 a Barrel in 2019 as Recession Fears Fade
__________
While the Opec+ group is already considering additional cuts, they risk running afoul of President Donal Trump, who has claimed credit for the power of his “social media statement[s]” in keeping the price of oil down. As prices dip below fiscal breakeven for a number of producers (increasing stress on the alliance’s cohesion), producers will soon find themselves stuck with contrary geopolitical and market priorities.
Longer term, the race for new energy technologies will fundamentally reshape the energy system and geopolitical order of the 21st century. But that is also deeply enmeshed in global politics, as the US differences with China show. While these new energy technologies will have huge potential to improve energy access and energy security while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they also have the potential to usher in an era of global technological competition along geopolitical fault lines.
The first mover advantage from developing these new technologies will matter more than ever, driving countries to push industrial policy to establish leadership in key emerging technologies. Market acquisition, and market influence, will be key priorities as new technologies come to market. At the same time, the push for these new technologies will confront new resource challenges. The centrality of rare earth minerals and the countries which are endowed with them will create new geopolitical dynamics. Managing resource constraints, and the competition for access to them, will have characteristics similar to competition to fossils fuels, but with potentially more at stake.
Here, the US and China have again found themselves on opposite sides, resulting in a global competition to be ‘first’ which is reshaping alliances and markets. Where countries look for new nuclear technologies, carbon capture systems, 5G, blockchain, AI, and other clean energy technologies, they will become frontlines in the same realpolitik many thought they would supersede.
Thrown into these longer-term challenges is the prospect of a peak and decline in oil demand, which could destabilise a wide swath of countries dependent on oil revenue. The recent low oil price environment caused instability in Venezuela and Nigeria, suggesting that a peak-demand environment will leave higher-cost producers unable to compete. At a broader level, limited revenues from oil production will inflame fiscal deficits and foment internal instability. In some countries, this may interfere with the social contract that has underpinned domestic stability. Some countries are proactively looking to diversify their economies. In the UAE, for example, the government is putting an increased emphasis on petrochemicals, where they see opportunities for demand growth even as the role of oil as a transportation fuel declines.
Amidst all of this uncertainty, the threat of climate change becomes more real every year. Though action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is uneven and inconsistent, the impacts of climate change, the actions taken to mitigate it, and the politics of international climate negotiations have geopolitical ramifications.
Our task remains how to manage these geopolitical obstacles while still gaining ground on climate change, which remains the overarching challenge of our time. This will require the concerted and coordinated effort of all countries, including those leading on new technologies – and their willingness to transfer clean energy technology – and hydrocarbon producing countries and companies, many of whom have previously been recalcitrant on climate action. The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative and significant efforts from the oil and gas industry on carbon capture point to a possible way forward.
In this increasingly turbulent and multipolar world, while the US and China are competing for advantage, other countries, too, can do much to advance the debate. The UAE is doing just this through its work on the future of energy, which will be on show at next week’s Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, and in the excellent work of many companies to advance sustainability. It is crucial that the rest of the world take notice.
Randolph Bell is the director of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre and Reed Blakemore is associate director
How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS
England v New Zealand
(Saturday, 12pm UAE)
Wales v South Africa
(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
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The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Fly Etihad or Emirates from the UAE to Moscow from 2,763 return per person return including taxes.
Where to stay
Trips on the Golden Eagle Trans-Siberian cost from US$16,995 (Dh62,414) per person, based on two sharing.
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Five healthy carbs and how to eat them
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Results
2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mezmar, Adam McLean (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: AF Ajwad, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Gold Silver, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
4pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m; Winner: Atrash, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez.
4.30pm: Gulf Cup Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Momtaz, Saif Al Balushi, Musabah Al Muhairi.
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Al Mushtashar, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
Retail gloom
Online grocer Ocado revealed retail sales fell 5.7 per cen in its first quarter as customers switched back to pre-pandemic shopping patterns.
It was a tough comparison from a year earlier, when the UK was in lockdown, but on a two-year basis its retail division, a joint venture with Marks&Spencer, rose 31.7 per cent over the quarter.
The group added that a 15 per cent drop in customer basket size offset an 11.6. per cent rise in the number of customer transactions.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
I Feel Pretty
Dir: Abby Kohn/Mark Silverstein
Starring: Amy Schumer, Michelle Williams, Emily Ratajkowski, Rory Scovel
Is it worth it? We put cheesecake frap to the test.
The verdict from the nutritionists is damning. But does a cheesecake frappuccino taste good enough to merit the indulgence?
My advice is to only go there if you have unusually sweet tooth. I like my puddings, but this was a bit much even for me. The first hit is a winner, but it's downhill, slowly, from there. Each sip is a little less satisfying than the last, and maybe it was just all that sugar, but it isn't long before the rush is replaced by a creeping remorse. And half of the thing is still left.
The caramel version is far superior to the blueberry, too. If someone put a full caramel cheesecake through a liquidiser and scooped out the contents, it would probably taste something like this. Blueberry, on the other hand, has more of an artificial taste. It's like someone has tried to invent this drink in a lab, and while early results were promising, they're still in the testing phase. It isn't terrible, but something isn't quite right either.
So if you want an experience, go for a small, and opt for the caramel. But if you want a cheesecake, it's probably more satisfying, and not quite as unhealthy, to just order the real thing.
Sweet%20Tooth
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Ticket prices
General admission Dh295 (under-three free)
Buy a four-person Family & Friends ticket and pay for only three tickets, so the fourth family member is free
Buy tickets at: wbworldabudhabi.com/en/tickets
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
57%20Seconds
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
Rating: 2/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
