In a word, you could say that the Trump Doctrine for Global Stability is the same as it is for most of his engagements - to Tweet, to bully, to insult and to brag – in essence to remind the world that as a person and as a country that the Donald and the US has an "Awesome" power capacity.
“Build a Wall” has been replaced with “Rocket Man, Don’t Test me!”
Each year is related to a Chinese zodiac animal according to the 12-year cycle – 2017 is the Year of the Rooster. The rooster in Chinese culture is almost the epitome of fidelity and punctuality – for ancestors who had no alarm clocks, the crowing was significant, as it could awaken people to get up and start to work.
Another symbolic meaning the chicken carries is exorcising evil spirits. We could perhaps do with a bit of those powers given the level of “fire and fury” that has been rocking the world since the alarms started ringing to get us off the beaches and back into the office with the end of summer.
In the past few months alone, we have had the threat of nuclear war surface in Asia, alongside once in a lifetime earthquakes, fires and hurricanes ripping through the Americas and drowning the fourth-largest city in the US. Quietly, in the background and grabbing few headlines, thousands of people were killed by flooding and landslides in northern India, Nepal and Bangladesh, which itself is trying to absorb hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing genocide in Myanmar.
And yet few alarm bells are ringing. Why?
The stock markets globally still want to dance to the music of double-digit leaps to new records every week and, while increasingly more voices are warning that the band resembles the orchestra on the Titanic, most central banks refuse to take away the punch bowl of free money and just keep on printing. And the Trump grab of Jerusalem away from the Palestinians could prove to be another wild card of instability in 2018.
Perhaps the mad hunger for bitcoin is the cuckoo in the coal mine of all this hubris...
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Read more:
Trump secures tax victory
Money year in review: Despite doom predictions, the upward trajectory continues
Year in Review: Populism was on the march in 2017
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In a parallel corridor, crude oil finally appears to be responding to some geopolitical volatility as it holds above $60 a barrel for first time in two years, with instability in parts of the Middle East, and drums beating on possible nuclear war in North Korea, which tested a hydrogen bomb blast in the third quarter that was so strong it sent earth tremor shock waves around the world three times.
People born in the Year of the Rooster according to the Chinese zodiac, have many excellent characteristics, such as being honest, bright, communicative and ambitious. Most of them, it says, are born pretty or handsome and have a preference for dressing up. In daily life, it is believed they seldom rely on others, they might be enthusiastic about something quickly, but soon become impassive.
In either case, it strikes me that we need the proverbial Rooster to crow much louder, or for hearing aids to be distributed to all those baby-boomers in the US Congress. There is help around the corner as 2018 is the year of the Earth Dog and its characteristic word is "action!"
As we enter an era of G-zero – no nation or one group of nations ruling the world – it is Mr Trump’s "America First" protectionist philosophy that topped the voting poll in a GIQ Industry Survey earlier this year, as the global risk with the greatest potential impact on the Middle East (ME). And unsurprisingly so. An oft-unpredictable Trump, known for his antagonistic rhetoric, is deepening his engagement with the Arab world at a sensitive time. Testy sentiment following the Arab Spring lingers and some of the neighbours of the region’s energy producers – home to a third of the world’s oil exports – are beset by civil war and poverty.
Mr Trump faces stiff competition for Middle East energy alliances, even if the US own growing energy independence has sharpened his bargaining power. The jostle by the world’s emerging behemoths for this region’s assets continues, with China’s "One Belt, One Road" initiative and India’s "Think West" policy. Countries that PwC expects to be the world’s biggest economies by 2050, respectively, are rapidly widening their footprint on the Arabian Peninsula. Riyadh and Beijing signed US$70 billion in deals in August alone, while trade between India and the Gulf soared to $137.7bn in 2014-2015 from $5.5bn in 2001.
Russian firms are also deepening their political influence with a shopping spree; more than $10bn worth of projects are underway in Saudi Arabia and Moscow recently tied up deals worth $30bn with an increasingly-ambitious Iran. And this is just the tip of an ever-growing geopolitical iceberg - so ME energy companies must be savvier than ever. American actor Will Rogers said it well in the early 1900s: “Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” Eyes must be open.
The year of 2016 saw extraordinary change for some countries’ energy security, which has created a dynamic landscape in 2017. The US, for example, became a net exporter of gas for the first time in 60 years and LNG cargoes set sail for Dubai and Kuwait. It has been nearly 120 years since the US regularly used the maritime route to transport oil to the Middle East.
Sean Evers is the founder and managing partner of Gulf Intelligence, a strategic communications and research firm covering the Middle East energy sector
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
