It’s pretty much a done deal for Opec+ as they head into their summer meeting in Vienna on Monday.
The alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which is responsible for drawing back 1.2 million barrels per day of supply from the markets since January, will renew the pact for the second half of the year.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, to extend the supply cut agreement from July onwards.
The meeting between the two leaders has paved the way "for the reduction of global stocks, and thus the balance of markets, and the recovery of investment rates to ensure future energy supplies”, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih tweeted on Saturday.
Vandana Hari, founder and chief executive of Singapore-based Vandana Insights, said: "Opec and non-Opec may need to keep their output restraints in place until global economic growth returns to its pre-trade war momentum. The best-case scenario would be for that to start happening sometime in 2020."
The Osaka consensus makes the extension of accord a pretty much foregone conclusion for the Opec+ alliance when it convenes on July 1 and 2. The challenges facing the global oil markets, however, have become more fractious and complicated since the alliance members last met in mid May.
On Sunday, the UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazroui tweeted that he was confident of a productive meeting in the Austrian capital.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih said OPEC members agree on the need to extend oil production cuts but are undecided whether it needs to be for six or nine months.
"Certainly it is a rollover, consensus is emerging ... Everybody I am talking to is assuring that conformity in the second half is going to be a lot more uniform than what we have seen in the first half," Mr Al Falih told Reuters on Sunday.
The global oil industry has borne the brunt of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the past couple of months. Tankers carrying oil and products have come under repeated attacks in the waters of the Arabian Gulf. While there is no clear evidence to implicate a state or non-state actor, the US has pointed finger at Iran, pushing the region close to a full-blown conflict.
Rates for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world’s seaborne oil transits, have rocketed following the incidents. Oil, which had proved immune to geopolitical risk, reversed earlier bearishness to respond to possible risks of a US military offensive against Iran.
The meeting in Vienna will see representation from an increasingly pressured Iran, which had waivers for its top buyers cancelled towards the end of April as well as sanctions imposed against its Supreme Leader.
The producers will likely downplay geopolitical concerns by reaffirming their ability to supply should the region face disruptions.
“They will mention they have sufficient spare capacity to address disruption risks, if the oil market requires more barrels. Also, the over-compliance gives Saudi Arabia the flexibility to adjust volumes higher if the oil market would require more oil without being in breach with the deal,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS.
Negotiations at the meeting are expected to be fairly straightforward, Iraq’s Energy Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Thamir Ghadhban said in London on Friday.
"This is normal in the oil business, ups and downs but the vision is very clear – we want to stabilise the market, we want to avoid volatility,” he said.
In order to avoid fractiousness during the upcoming meeting, a simple rollover of existing cuts is the most favoured option by the producers.
"I expect the group to rollover for six months with unchanged cuts of 1.2 million bpd. Otherwise new negotiations are needed ... which requires time and might create larger challenges than a simple rollover,” said Mr Staunovo.
Bearishness in the markets could still be a risk, should the world economy move into a recession. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch cautioned in a note last week that prices could fall as low as $30 per barrel if China moved to devalue its currency and trade talks with the US fail. However, that threat is off the table in the short term as US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Osaka have agreed to continue discussions on tariffs. This breakthrough, however, is unlikely to dramatically reverse fortunes for the oil markets, noted Ms Hari.
"The existing tariffs are not being lifted, which means the shadow cast over global economic growth and oil demand remains in place," she said.
UBS expects oil prices to move into $70 per barrel territory with reduction in US inventories in the third quarter. Brent was trading at $64.74 per barrel at 10.26am UAE time on Sunday.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20electric%20motors%20with%20102kW%20battery%20pack%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E570hp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20890Nm%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%20428km%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C700%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
INFO
Everton 0
Arsenal 0
Man of the Match: Djibril Sidibe (Everton)
FA Cup fifth round draw
Sheffield Wednesday v Manchester City
Reading/Cardiff City v Sheffield United
Chelsea v Shrewsbury Town/Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United/Oxford United
Leicester City v Coventry City/Birmingham City
Northampton Town/Derby County v Manchester United
Southampton/Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City
Portsmouth v Arsenal
Poacher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERichie%20Mehta%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nimisha%20Sajayan%2C%20Roshan%20Mathew%2C%20Dibyendu%20Bhattacharya%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
more from Janine di Giovanni
Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
