Brent crude could average $50 per barrel in 2021 on the back of a faster-than-expected demand recovery in sectors such as transportation as well as strong supply cuts from Opec, according to the Bank of America. The lender revised its estimate for the world’s most widely-traded crude benchmark upwards by $7.
Brent is expected to average $43.70 per barrel this year, an increase on its earlier estimate of $37 per barrel as many countries lift movement restrictions that were put in place to limit the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
"Global oil market fundamentals have shifted significantly since we last adjusted our oil price forecasts on March 8, the bank said in a note on Sunday.
"As we head into next year, mobility demand could recover at a faster rate than we initially anticipated. Also, Opec+ will likely hold back larger supply volumes than we pencilled in three months ago,” the lender added. The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is cutting back 9.7 million barrels per day until July, with tapered cuts in place until 2022.
A tighter scenario for oil supply and demand also means an improved outlook for West Texas Intermediate, the key US gauge. BofA revised its forecast for WTI up to $47 per barrel for 2021 and $50 per barrel in 2022. The bank based its assumptions on the return of US shale output to the market in the second half of 2021.
The recent rally in oil prices over the past few weeks tailed off at the end of last week as Covid-19 cases surged globally leading to concerns about the possibility of a second wave of the pandemic.
Brent ended the week down marginally at $41.02 on Friday, while WTI fell 0.6 per cent, settling at $38.49 per barrel.
"The rally in oil prices has started to stall as an acceleration in the number of Covid-19 cases globally threatens the viability of demand recovery,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD.
"The reopening of several major US states has been put on hold as Covid-19 cases are increasing and in some instances posting record single-day numbers,” he added.
Global cases of the novel coronavirus passed the 10 million mark on Sunday. Many US states such as Florida posted their highest daily counts last week, while states such as Texas reimposed lockdowns after a surge in new infections.
Markets worry about the US undergoing another "extensive lockdown", Emirates NBD said in its latest note.
If that were to take place, a repeat of April’s demand slump is likely to follow with a new collapse in jet fuel demand as well as a steep drop in gasoline consumption.
"However, we doubt state governments would be ready to order as severe a shutdown of their local economies only a few weeks into reopening, despite the risks to public health," it added.
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
What is an ETF?
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
The five pillars of Islam
Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 2
Rashford 28', Martial 72'
Watford 1
Doucoure 90'
The specs: 2019 GMC Yukon Denali
Price, base: Dh306,500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 621Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
