Benchmark Brent could rally up to $100 per barrel as it topped $80 to reach a four-year high on Monday amid concerns over lost Iranian barrels and limited spare capacity once Opec and its allies bring in more supply.
Trading houses Trafigura and Mercuria said that oil prices could inch towards $100 per barrel by the end of the year or early 2019, citing a loss of almost two million barrels per day of export from Iran as the biggest factor behind the rally.
“The market simply does not have an adequate supply response for a 2m bpd disappearance of oil from the markets,” Daniel Jaeggi, president of commodity merchant Mercuria Energy Trading told an energy conference in Singapore, news agencies reported.
Brent futures breached the $80 per barrel mark on Monday, after having averaged $72 per barrel for much of the year and rallying around $79 per barrel since August. The rise comes amid pledges by the Arabian Gulf Opec oil producers of sufficient oil production capacities to meet demand, even as the group remained vague about allotment of quotas during its latest technical committee meet on Sunday.
UBS, which revised its 12-month forecast for Brent to $85 per barrel in June, said it “would not rule out a spike in oil prices to the $100 per barrel mark” over the coming year, if further supply disruptions materialised.
“Oil can hit $100 per barrel if some disruptions also occur in other fragile Opec states such as Libya, Nigeria, or Iraq, and/or Venezuelan production continues to fall,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at the Swiss lender.
While much will hinge on the volume of disruption and the period over which the loss would be sustained, Mr Staunovo also cited the decline in spare capacity to "lows not seen since 2008" as well as curtailment of US output due to pipeline constraints as other factors behind the oil rally.
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Read more:
Opec expects shale from US to account for 15% of global supply by late 2020s
Opec and allies say significant capacity exists but not needed
Trade wars and falling Iran exports to impact supply and demand, says Opec
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“In the second quarter of 2019 we could have again a stronger increase in US supply, once the pipeline constraints get fixed,” he added.
Japan’s MUFG, which maintains a base case oil price projection of $72 per barrel for 2018, views any rally of Brent up to $100 per barrel as “short-lived”.
“It will merely lead to demand destruction becoming more likely, through a combination of enhanced efficiency and a slowdown in the global economy,” said Ehsan Khoman, MUFG’s head of MENA research and strategy.
“Moreover, higher oil prices could prompt the United States to consider extraordinary measures such as the usage of [its] strategic petroleum reserves to taper [domestic] gasoline prices ahead of the its mid-term elections in early November,” he said.
Rapid growth of shale backed by greater efficiency learnings is very likely in the event of a higher oil price environment, cautioned Mr Khoman.
"Succinctly put, shale remains the firm global swing oil producer. The shale response over the medium-term is likely to be robust,” he added.
Opec in its latest World Oil Outlook observed that peak tight oil supply, mainly from the US, will account for 15 per cent of all global output by the late 2020s.
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Fight card
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) v Rey Nacionales (PHI)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROM) v Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR)
Catch 74kg
Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) v Omar Hussein (JOR)
Strawweight (Female)
Weronika Zygmunt (POL) v Seo Ye-dam (KOR)
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) v Walid Laidi (ALG)
Lightweight
Leandro Martins (BRA) v Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW)
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) v Sofiane Benchohra (ALG)
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR)
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) v Glen Ranillo (PHI)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Aidan Aguilera (AUS)
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) Sasha Palatnikov (HKG)
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR)
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Results
5.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m; Winner: Mcmanaman, Sam Hitchcock (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
6.05pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Bawaasil, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
6.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Dirt) 1,400m; Winner: Bochart, Fabrice Veron, Satish Seemar
7.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Mutaraffa, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
7.50pm: Longines Stakes – Conditions (TB) Dh120,00 (D) 1,900m; Winner: Rare Ninja, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.25pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Alfareeq, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
9pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (T) 2,410m; Winner: Good Tidings, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
9.35pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (T) 2,000m; Winner: Zorion, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi
Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ZAYED SUSTAINABILITY PRIZE
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Florida: The critical Sunshine State
Though mostly conservative, Florida is usually always “close” in presidential elections. In most elections, the candidate that wins the Sunshine State almost always wins the election, as evidenced in 2016 when Trump took Florida, a state which has not had a democratic governor since 1991.
Joe Biden’s campaign has spent $100 million there to turn things around, understandable given the state’s crucial 29 electoral votes.
In 2016, Mr Trump’s democratic rival Hillary Clinton paid frequent visits to Florida though analysts concluded that she failed to appeal towards middle-class voters, whom Barack Obama won over in the previous election.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees
Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme
Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks
Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
