Oil prices are rounding off 2020, a turbulent year in which US crude futures fell below zero for the first time, with some amount of optimism.
International oil benchmark Brent is above $50 a barrel for the first time since March while West Texas Intermediate is above $47 a barrel.
Still, both gauges are down by about 22 per cent from their 2019 levels.
Oil prices, now at a six-month high, are poised to remain buoyant as countries begin to distribute Covid-19 vaccines.
However, optimism for a quick recovery in the sector is tempered by a focus on incorporating green energy sources.
But the industry has been reshaped as countries around the world recalibrate their energy mix to incorporate green energy sources.
The twin forces of the pandemic and a rebalanced energy mix will continue to affect the course of the industry next year.
The pandemic “created the largest oil and gas demand shock in history, but its repercussions are likely to extend through a future supply shock as oil and gas companies curtail their spending on upstream operations”, the International Energy Forum said in a report last week.
Globally, oil and gas companies have slashed their capital expenditure programmes by 34 per cent this year, which is higher than the estimated reduction in spending of 28 per cent, which began after the price slump in 2014.
Big oil companies such as BP and Shell have trimmed the size of their hydrocarbon assets, writing off $17.5 billion and $22bn as prices crashed to historic lows and demand slumped amid global lockdowns.
Spending is expected to remain tight with a “further 20 per cent decline” next year, according to the IEF.
As companies and governments tighten their purse strings next year, the outlook for oil supply remains tight, exerting upward pressure on prices.
Goldman Sachs global head of commodities Jeff Currie predicts that commodities such as oil are set to enter a “long-lasting bull market”.
“Every single commodity market, with the exception of wheat, is in a deficit today,” he said at a finance forum last week.
Still, Goldman remains bullish on prices, expecting Brent to average $65 a barrel next year. It has predicted a rapid recovery in global oil demand to 102.5 million barrels per day and expects demand to rebound to higher levels than before the pandemic.
Opec estimates that oil demand for 2020 declined by 9.77 million bpd to 89.99 million bpd, which is significantly short of the 100 million bpd average before the pandemic.
The group forecasts a smaller increase in demand by 5.9 million bpd in 2021, with overall demand expected to average 96.89 million bpd.
Opec, along with key producers outside the group led by Russia, has been instrumental in propping up oil markets in 2020, through collective action.
The group forged a historic production cut agreement of 9.7 million bpd earlier this year and is now cutting back 7.2 million bpd until the first quarter of 2021.
The alliance will meet monthly to monitor compliance and has come down hard on members such as Iraq, Opec’s second-biggest producer, and Nigeria and Angola, who have flouted the restrictions.
“Although Opec+ grabs much attention as a group when it comes to production, it produces less than 50 per cent of crude,” Barclays said in its outlook for markets.
The emergence of the US as the largest overall producer of crude will continue to pose a challenge, according to the bank.
Barclays expects prices to remain “range-bound” thanks to supply cuts, with Brent averaging $55 a barrel next year, and rising to $60 by the end of the year based on a solid recovery.
The US energy industry has been hit hard by the collapse in demand triggered by the pandemic.
WTI, the key US benchmark, briefly fell to minus $40 a barrel in April, a month described by the International Energy Agency as "Black April".
The WTI’s tumble into negative territory came close to the expiry of the benchmark’s May contract, as supply exceeded available storage capacity.
The industry remains affected, with US refinery runs below their five-year averages due to reduced demand amid the pandemic.
US production, which rose to 12 million bpd at the beginning of the year, is now about 11 million bpd. The industry is not expected to recover to historically high output levels anytime soon.
However, with WTI trending at $47 a barrel and the US having begun vaccinations on Monday, an economic recovery may prompt rival shale independents to pick up their pace.
The US shale industry and Opec+ will need to factor in the policies of president-elect Joe Biden, who is expected to overturn Washington’s “maximum pressure” strategy to contain Iranian exports and may remove sanctions on Venezuela.
Tehran is also preparing to bring its barrels to market, with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani signalling a return of supplies within "three months".
That will invariably change market dynamics and present a delicate balancing act for Opec+ as it continues to focus on running a tight ship.
I Feel Pretty
Dir: Abby Kohn/Mark Silverstein
Starring: Amy Schumer, Michelle Williams, Emily Ratajkowski, Rory Scovel
The%20specs%20
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
ATP RANKINGS (NOVEMBER 4)
1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 9,585 pts ( 1)
2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8,945 (-1)
3. Roger Federer (SUI) 6,190
4. Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 5,705
5. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 5,025
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 4,000 ( 1)
7. Alexander Zverev (GER) 2,945 (-1)
8. Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 2,670 ( 1)
9. Roberto Bautista (ESP) 2,540 ( 1)
10. Gaël Monfils (FRA) 2,530 ( 3)
11. David Goffin (BEL) 2,335 ( 3)
12. Fabio Fognini (ITA) 2,290
13. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 2,180 (-2)
14. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 2,125 ( 1)
15. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 2,050 ( 13)
16. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) 2,000
17. Karen Khachanov (RUS) 1,840 (-9)
18. Alex De Minaur (AUS) 1,775
19. John Isner (USA) 1,770 (-2)
20. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 1,747 ( 7)
Barbie
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Scorline
Iraq 1-0 UAE
Iraq Hussein 28’
Muguruza's singles career in stats
WTA titles 3
Prize money US$11,128,219 (Dh40,873,133.82)
Wins / losses 293 / 149
Surianah's top five jazz artists
Billie Holliday: for the burn and also the way she told stories.
Thelonius Monk: for his earnestness.
Duke Ellington: for his edge and spirituality.
Louis Armstrong: his legacy is undeniable. He is considered as one of the most revolutionary and influential musicians.
Terence Blanchard: very political - a lot of jazz musicians are making protest music right now.
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Results:
CSIL 2-star 145cm One Round with Jump-Off
1. Alice Debany Clero (USA) on Amareusa S 38.83 seconds
2. Anikka Sande (NOR) For Cash 2 39.09
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) Cash Up 39.42
4. Nadia Taryam (UAE) Askaria 3 39.63
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) Fidelius G 47.74
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
Abdul Jabar Qahraman was meeting supporters in his campaign office in the southern Afghan province of Helmand when a bomb hidden under a sofa exploded on Wednesday.
The blast in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah killed the Afghan election candidate and at least another three people, Interior Minister Wais Ahmad Barmak told reporters. Another three were wounded, while three suspects were detained, he said.
The Taliban – which controls much of Helmand and has vowed to disrupt the October 20 parliamentary elections – claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mr Qahraman was at least the 10th candidate killed so far during the campaign season, and the second from Lashkar Gah this month. Another candidate, Saleh Mohammad Asikzai, was among eight people killed in a suicide attack last week. Most of the slain candidates were murdered in targeted assassinations, including Avtar Singh Khalsa, the first Afghan Sikh to run for the lower house of the parliament.
The same week the Taliban warned candidates to withdraw from the elections. On Wednesday the group issued fresh warnings, calling on educational workers to stop schools from being used as polling centres.
'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Copa del Rey
Semi-final, first leg
Barcelona 1 (Malcom 57')
Real Madrid (Vazquez 6')
Second leg, February 27
Results:
6.30pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,400m.
Winner: Walking Thunder, Connor Beasley (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap (rated 72-87) Dh 165,000 1,600m.
Winner: Syncopation, George Buckell, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,400m.
Winner: Big Brown Bear, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.15pm: Handicap (75-95) Dh 190,000 1,200m.
Winner: Stunned, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Handicap (85-105) Dh 210,000 2,000m.
Winner: New Trails, Connor Beasley, Ahmad bin Harmash.
9.25pm: Handicap (75-95) Dh 190,000 1,600m.
Winner: Pillar Of Society, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
