Opec has slightly increased its global oil demand forecast for 2026, expecting a tighter market amid economic momentum that is expected to continue next year.
Demand for crude is expected to grow by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd, with a slower expansion in supplies from Opec's rivals, the Vienna-based alliance of oil-producing nations said in its monthly market report for August on Tuesday.
Crude demand in the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development countries is projected to grow by 200,000 bpd, while non-OECD nations would register a 1.2 million bpd rise, it said.
Opec, however, kept its 2025 demand growth view unchanged at 1.3 million bpd.
The group also revised its 2025 economic growth forecast higher, to 3 per cent, expecting the "strong momentum" in the first half of 2026 to continue into the later part of the year. Growth estimate this year, however, remained unchanged at 3.1 per cent.
Growth in the US, the world's largest economy, was slightly revised upwards to 1.8 per cent for this year and remained at 2.1 per cent in the next.
"The global economy continues to follow a stable growth trajectory ... economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirms the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to US-centred trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks," Opec said.
It did, however, warn that relations between the US and its partners, strained to various degrees by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, may be a root of trade-related uncertainties that may cause disruption in activity and some inflationary effects.
"Nonetheless, a range of fiscal and monetary policy measures is expected to help offset these effects ... the forecast assumes that reasonable trade agreements will be maintained with most key US trading partners, allowing global economic uncertainty to ease further in the coming months," Opec said.
Oil markets have remained volatile in a year featuring Mr Trump’s tariff plans and the Iran-Israel conflict.
Prices started the year strongly. The closing price of Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, peaked at more than $82 a barrel on January 15, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, hit almost $79 per barrel on that day.
However, demand concerns, a slowing global economy and less-than-stellar growth in China, the world's largest crude importer, have dampened prices this year.
Oil is also under pressure as members of Opec+ alliance of crude producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, continue to boost supply. This month, the group agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 bpd for September as members unwind voluntary cuts introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic.
That followed a 548,000 bpd rise in August and 411,000 bpd from May, June and July.
However, Opec's report on Tuesday showed the group raised production by 335,000 bpd in July.
Oil prices were down on Tuesday at 5.41pm UAE time, with Brent retreating 0.47 per cent to $66.32 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate shed 0.72 per cent to $63.50. Both benchmarks are down more than 11 per cent so far in 2025 against a backdrop of volatile trading.
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
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Female 49kg: Mayssa Bastos (BRA) bt Thamires Aquino (BRA); points 0-0 (advantage points points 1-0).
Female 55kg: Bianca Basilio (BRA) bt Amal Amjahid (BEL); points 4-2.
Female 62kg: Beatriz Mesquita (BRA) v Ffion Davies (GBR); 10-2.
Female 70kg: Thamara Silva (BRA) bt Alessandra Moss (AUS); submission.
Female 90kg: Gabreili Passanha (BRA) bt Claire-France Thevenon (FRA); submission.
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Male 62kg: Gabriel de Sousa (BRA) bt Joao Miyao (BRA); 2-2 (2-1)
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Male 77kg: Tommy Langarkar (NOR) by Oliver Lovell (GBR); submission.
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Total votes: 1.8 million
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Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
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Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
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Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
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The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
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World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
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5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
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Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
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