Opec held its biennial seminar last week at Vienna’s Hofburg Palace. It is an icon of the late Austro-Hungarian empire, a scientific and cultural ferment that was often unfairly caricatured as a dinosaur, living in the past and doomed to collapse. Giants such as Freud, Einstein, Klimt and Mahler rubbed shoulders. In a grim portent, the pre-fame Hitler, Stalin, Trotsky and Tito were all present in the city simultaneously in 1913.
The oil exporters’ latest long-term energy outlook was released on Thursday. Is it, too, the last gasp of a dying imperium? Or an optimistic step towards a new future?
Speaking to The National at the Hofburg, Opec secretary general Haitham Al Ghais said the organisation’s critics were “writing Opec’s death certificate – again". Indeed, its demise has been repeatedly, and wrongly, predicted.
Opec's World Oil Outlook 2050 is a useful counterpoint to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, which came out in October. The industrialised countries’ organisation has for some time been much more aggressive in its forecasts for climate action and energy transition, and more sceptical on oil demand, than the oil exporters’ group.
Like Kaiser Franz glowering from the Hofburg at his rival Napoleon, Opec has grown increasingly irritated at what it sees as the politicisation of its Paris-based counterpart.
The IEA’s publication came out, of course, before the second election of Donald Trump as US President, and the zeitgeist has changed since then.
Low-carbon energy is under attack, and promoting oil, gas and coal is at the top of the White House’s agenda. European politicians worry about high energy bills, industrial uncompetitiveness and the rise of the far right, opposed to “net zero” carbon policies.
Tariff turmoil and hostility to international co-operation threaten collective action on climate change. A previously unthinkable war involving Israel, the US and Iran has passed off without serious energy consequences, so far. Opec’s schadenfreude at its critics’ discomfiture is understandable.
Its latest outlook revises up long-term oil demand by 2.8 million barrels per day by 2050, to 122.9 million bpd. It sees a gradual slowing of demand growth after 2030, but no peak, in sharp contrast to both the IEA, and its own long-term projections from 2020, 2021 and 2022.
Those earlier views were perhaps clouded by the pandemic and then the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Perhaps counter-intuitively, Opec has cut its forecasts for the next few years, chipping off up to 1.7 million bpd, mostly on worries over the Chinese economy.
It projects 111.6 million bpd of demand in 2029, up from 2024’s 103.7 million bpd. Still, an average annual gain of nearly 1.6 million bpd over five years would be very robust by historic standards. Since 1980, it has happened only twice: in 2012-2017 and 2002-2007.
But the IEA’s medium-term outlook foresees a peak in oil demand by 2029, at 105.6 million bpd, with annual growth averaging just 0.5 million bpd over this five-year period. That is consistent with the last five years, but otherwise also a historical rarity, occurring around the global financial crisis, and in the early 1980s recession and oil shock hangover.
Opec quite reasonably observes that, “many initial net-zero policies promoted unrealistic timelines or had little regard for energy security, affordability or feasibility”. In its view, out to 2050, oil retains its market share; renewables grow, but essentially replace coal.
Whether oil demand expands robustly to 2050 or peaks soon is a contest waged across geographies and sectors. In Opec’s view, oil wins in developing Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, gaining 25.3 million bpd by mid-century; China is basically a draw, with 1.7 million bpd of expansion to 2030 but stasis thereafter. This basically assumes that emerging economies follow a similar development path to their East Asian counterparts of the 1960s to the 2000s, and that rapid population and economic growth outstrip adoption of non-oil energy sources.
But petroleum does not do too badly in the developed countries either in Opec’s view – consumption drops only 8.5 million bpd, less than 20 per cent, despite maturing and ageing economies, tightening climate policies, and rising electric vehicle use.
In sectors, too, oil wins almost across the board, losing only a little ground in power generation, while it continues rising in road, sea and air travel, petrochemicals, industry and home and commercial use.
This is, frankly, a little hard to believe. Yes, there are few good alternatives today to oil in ships, planes and petrochemicals: it’s a fair argument that, in the absence of strong climate policy, demand here will keep climbing. But to satisfy these forecasts, petroleum would have to keep growing in nearly all of its traditional uses, without much prospect of discovering any new ones. Meanwhile, renewable and nuclear electricity have not just oil’s existing domains, but new kingdoms to conquer, such as data centres and air taxis.
Given that Saudi Arabia itself plans to phase out its 1 million bpd of daily oil burn in power plants by 2030, it seems implausible that global use in power generation would fall only 0.5 million bpd by 2050. In industry and homes, natural gas and electrification are cleaner, more flexible and increasingly cheaper options.
Road transport is the key question. Opec thinks that electric vehicles will constitute only 28 per cent of the global fleet even by 2050. Almost none of today’s cars will still be on the road by then. Battery and plug-in hybrids make up about 19 per cent of world sales currently, 26 per cent of European sales, and almost 53 per cent of those in China. New petrol and diesel car sales will be phased out in the UK and EU between 2030 and 2035, and China too will probably effectively ban them by then.
The death certificate for oil written by the IEA seems indeed premature.
But the oil exporters’ organisation may find itself ruling over a patchwork of fading territories, where oil is a tired legacy or a last resort. Or, it may extend its reach over areas of growth, in India, in Africa, on the seas and in the skies. A lot has to go in Opec’s favour if the zenith of its empire of oil is to outlast mid-century.
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
The five pillars of Islam
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
US tops drug cost charts
The study of 13 essential drugs showed costs in the United States were about 300 per cent higher than the global average, followed by Germany at 126 per cent and 122 per cent in the UAE.
Thailand, Kenya and Malaysia were rated as nations with the lowest costs, about 90 per cent cheaper.
In the case of insulin, diabetic patients in the US paid five and a half times the global average, while in the UAE the costs are about 50 per cent higher than the median price of branded and generic drugs.
Some of the costliest drugs worldwide include Lipitor for high cholesterol.
The study’s price index placed the US at an exorbitant 2,170 per cent higher for Lipitor than the average global price and the UAE at the eighth spot globally with costs 252 per cent higher.
High blood pressure medication Zestril was also more than 2,680 per cent higher in the US and the UAE price was 187 per cent higher than the global price.
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
What is the definition of an SME?
SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.
A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors.
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Company%C2%A0profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Sri Lanka World Cup squad
Dimuth Karunaratne (c), Lasith Malinga, Angelo Mathews, Thisara Perera, Kusal Perera, Dhananjaya de Silva, Kusal Mendis, Isuru Udana, Milinda Siriwardana, Avishka Fernando, Jeevan Mendis, Lahiru Thirimanne, Jeffrey Vandersay, Nuwan Pradeep, Suranga Lakmal.
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Scores
Oman 109-3 in 18.4 overs (Aqib Ilyas 45 not out, Aamir Kaleem 27) beat UAE 108-9 in 20 overs (Usman 27, Mustafa 24, Fayyaz 3-16, Bilal 3-23)
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Biography
Favourite Meal: Chicken Caesar salad
Hobbies: Travelling, going to the gym
Inspiration: Father, who was a captain in the UAE army
Favourite read: Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter
Favourite film: The Founder, about the establishment of McDonald's
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SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206-cylinder%203-litre%2C%20with%20petrol%20and%20diesel%20variants%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20286hp%20(petrol)%2C%20249hp%20(diesel)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E450Nm%20(petrol)%2C%20550Nm%20(diesel)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EStarting%20at%20%2469%2C800%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20Kitchen
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Squad: Majed Naser, Abdulaziz Sanqour, Walid Abbas, Khamis Esmail, Habib Fardan, Mohammed Marzouq (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Khalid Essa, Muhanad Salem, Mohammed Ahmed, Ismail Ahmed, Ahmed Barman, Amer Abdulrahman, Omar Abdulrahman (Al Ain), Ali Khaseif, Fares Juma, Mohammed Fawzi, Khalfan Mubarak, Mohammed Jamal, Ahmed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Ahmed Rashid, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Wahda), Tariq Ahmed, Mahmoud Khamis, Khalifa Mubarak, Jassim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Yousef Saeed (Sharjah), Suhail Al Nubi (Baniyas)
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
FA Cup quarter-final draw
The matches will be played across the weekend of 21 and 22 March
Sheffield United v Arsenal
Newcastle v Manchester City
Norwich v Derby/Manchester United
Leicester City v Chelsea
Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
