After 48 hours on the ground in Vienna, one message resonates across the board – from oil majors to top analysts: “Relax. It’s chill, baby, chill.”
Inventory levels remain low. The threat of a disruptive surge in non-Opec supply? Also low. That means, for now, Opec+ and the core V8 members are confident of continuing to add back barrels, without derailing market balance.
"Ignore the noise, demand is strong, supply will stay tight into Q4,” Opec’s secretary general Haitham Al Ghais told The National.
Demand outlook
The secretariat forecasts 1.3 million barrels per day of demand growth in 2025, grounded in “raw data, not ideology.” The secretary general dismissed recession noise and stressed that real-world signals – travel season, refining margins, petrol drawdowns – all confirm resilience. “Noise is not news.”
Supply dynamics and US output
The market is expected to tighten into Q3 and early Q4, with non-Opec+ (non-DOC) production growth slowing. While not calling a peak, Mr Al Ghais said the slowdown is visible, and hinted at further clarity in Opec’s World Oil Outlook to 2050.
As for the US? “Relax, Manus” – Mr Al Ghais is “not worried”, emphasising confidence in the secretariat’s data-led approach over hype around “energy dominance”.
Cohesion and control
Critics who claim the oil production group has lost discipline are “writing Opec’s death certificate – again.” Mr Al Ghais pushed back hard, saying the group is united, data-driven and far from done. “Throwing in the towel does not exist in Opec’s dictionary,” he said.
Geopolitics and market risk
From Gaza to Iran, geopolitical threats loom, but they do not influence core supply/demand assessments. Opec reacts as needed, the secretary general said, but always on fundamentals, not fear. “We cannot pre-empt situations – we manage them.”
Final word
Opec will ensure the world remains well-supplied for “many decades to come”, with the long-term demand story still intact. “Oil remains 30 per cent of global primary energy. That won’t change overnight.”
