Open fighting between Israel and Iran, and missile and drone strikes on oil and gas facilities would once have triggered crisis in energy markets.
Yet after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, joined by the US, oil prices are lower than when it started. Has the oil and gas industry learnt lessons from this brief conflict? More importantly, has it learnt the right lessons?
First, the market is not worried about disruption to energy supplies from the Gulf. Despite two of the Middle East's key military and political powers lobbing missiles at each other, despite the US directly bombing Iran for the first time ever and Tehran also countering for the first time by attacking the territory of a Gulf state, oil prices are lower now than before the conflict broke out.
After a brief 20 per cent rise, gas prices in Europe have also dropped to below their pre-June 12 levels, even though the continent needs Gulf liquefied natural gas (LNG) to make up for the loss of Russian imports.
Following much more nervous periods in the early 2000s, when a whiff of gunpowder could put $10 on the oil price, four factors are at play.
The rise of the US’s shale oil and gas output has diversified supplies, and it could increase output further in the case of a prolonged disruption and price spike.
Opec members hold major spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq, while Iran’s own output has stagnated.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have built or expanded pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
And the world economy is less oil-dependent – a barrel of oil generates $2,500 of world gross domestic product today, up from $1,725 in 2000. Renewable energy and electric vehicles are now genuine alternatives at commercial scale to oil and gas.
But perhaps all these factors are secondary to the fable of the “boy who cried wolf”. Iranian politicos and military officials have often threatened to “close the Strait of Hormuz” at times of geopolitical tension and analysts have studied the possible threats, implications and countermeasures to exhaustion.
Of course, the fighting had some impacts on specific parts of the energy business, sharply pushing up diesel and jet fuel prices, tanker hire rates and insurance. But overall, the oil market appears to have decided that it will wait to see real physical disruption or destruction before reacting dramatically.
Second, there is still restraint in targeting energy sites. Probably not wanting to be blamed for causing a global energy crisis, Israel did not attack Iran’s oil export capacities. Its strikes against domestic oil depots and gas processing plants appear more in the nature of a warning and have not caused long-lasting disruption.
Iranian missiles did damage facilities at the Bazan plant in Haifa, one of Israel’s two oil refineries. But Israel’s three offshore gasfields have avoided damage, even though since October 2023, they have seemed like obvious, critical and hard-to-defend targets for missiles or drones from Iran or its allies, notably Hezbollah.
Third, the Gulf countries’ outreach to Iran, and the assistance of China in mediating the Saudi-Iran normalisation of March 2023, has been helpful in keeping them out of conflict. Doha was certainly not happy to have Iranian missiles targeted at the US’s Al Udeid base on its soil, but no serious damage was done and the Iranians were quick to make it clear that the nation of Qatar was not their target.
But what if these lessons are false? Or, at least, not teaching us what we think? Complacency in such critical matters could be catastrophic.
Restraint tends to fall away as conflicts draw on. Weapons are used with greater ingenuity and desperation. Ukraine has showed that well with its increasingly sophisticated penetration of Russian defences, its strikes against oil refineries, key bridges and rail lines, and bomber bases.
Iran and, before it, Hezbollah were taken aback by the elimination of so many key commanders early in the conflict. That may have limited their ability to execute more damaging retaliation this time. Aerial and maritime drones give capacity for much more precise strikes than were possible in previous periods of panic in the early 2000s.
Israel and the US have given mixed messages on whether their goal was the elimination or setback of Iran’s nuclear programme, or regime change. If the Islamic Republic were seriously in danger of destruction, though, it would become far more likely to use whatever remaining leverage over world energy supplies it had. The boy who cried wolf, of course, was eventually eaten by a wolf.
The region and the key external players need to move beyond fragile ceasefires, containment and the rule of the gun, to multilateral peacebuilding
In some ways, the global energy system is more robust than in the early 2000s. In others, it has become more vulnerable – because of the loss of Russian gas to Europe, the much greater reliance globally on Gulf LNG, and the disruption of shipping through the southern Red Sea.
As former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat used to say, “the US holds 99 per cent of the cards in the Middle East”. It may not be so high these days, and Sadat himself admitted in private, “The United States actually holds only 60 per cent”.
But neither of Iran’s backers, China or Russia, seem to hold even 10 per cent, nor were of any obvious use in halting the Israeli or American attacks. Concern for what Beijing thinks might hold back Tehran from attacking its Gulf neighbours, but the fear of US retaliation remains a bigger restraining factor.
We have, so far, got away with an exceptionally dangerous situation. The solutions are threefold.
First, regional states including the Gulf should continue building energy security and resilience, including better defences, and diversified infrastructure.
Second, energy importers should accelerate their efforts on non-petroleum technologies, bringing environmental as well as security gains.
Third, the region and the key external players need to move beyond fragile ceasefires, containment and the rule of the gun, to multilateral peacebuilding.
UAE%20athletes%20heading%20to%20Paris%202024
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Honeymoonish
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Biog
Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara
He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada
Father of two sons, grandfather of six
Plays golf once a week
Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family
Walks for an hour every morning
Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India
2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business
The specs: 2018 Jeep Grand Cherokee Trackhawk
Price, base: Dh399,999
Engine: Supercharged 6.2-litre V8
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 707hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 875Nm @ 4,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 16.8L / 100km (estimate)
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Four-day collections of TOH
Day Indian Rs (Dh)
Thursday 500.75 million (25.23m)
Friday 280.25m (14.12m)
Saturday 220.75m (11.21m)
Sunday 170.25m (8.58m)
Total 1.19bn (59.15m)
(Figures in millions, approximate)
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
Other promotions
- Deliveroo will team up with Pineapple Express to offer customers near JLT a special treat: free banana caramel dessert with all orders on January 26
- Jones the Grocer will have their limited edition Australia Day menu available until the end of the month (January 31)
- Australian Vet in Abu Dhabi (with locations in Khalifa City A and Reem Island) will have a 15 per cent off all store items (excluding medications)
Asia Cup 2018 Qualifier
Sunday's results:
- UAE beat Malaysia by eight wickets
- Nepal beat Singapore by four wickets
- Oman v Hong Kong, no result
Tuesday fixtures:
- Malaysia v Singapore
- UAE v Oman
- Nepal v Hong Kong
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
if you go
The flights
Emirates offer flights to Buenos Aires from Dubai, via Rio De Janeiro from around Dh6,300. emirates.com
Seeing the games
Tangol sell experiences across South America and generally have good access to tickets for most of the big teams in Buenos Aires: Boca Juniors, River Plate, and Independiente. Prices from Dh550 and include pick up and drop off from your hotel in the city. tangol.com
Staying there
Tangol will pick up tourists from any hotel in Buenos Aires, but after the intensity of the game, the Faena makes for tranquil, upmarket accommodation. Doubles from Dh1,110. faena.com
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
SHAITTAN
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Tell-tale signs of burnout
- loss of confidence and appetite
- irritability and emotional outbursts
- sadness
- persistent physical ailments such as headaches, frequent infections and fatigue
- substance abuse, such as smoking or drinking more
- impaired judgement
- excessive and continuous worrying
- irregular sleep patterns
Tips to help overcome burnout
Acknowledge how you are feeling by listening to your warning signs. Set boundaries and learn to say ‘no’
Do activities that you want to do as well as things you have to do
Undertake at least 30 minutes of exercise per day. It releases an abundance of feel-good hormones
Find your form of relaxation and make time for it each day e.g. soothing music, reading or mindful meditation
Sleep and wake at the same time every day, even if your sleep pattern was disrupted. Without enough sleep condition such as stress, anxiety and depression can thrive.
The bio
Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions
School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira
Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk
Dream City: San Francisco
Hometown: Dubai
City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs: 2018 Ford Mustang GT
Price, base / as tested: Dh204,750 / Dh241,500
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque: 569Nm @ 4,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.3L / 100km
The biog
Favourite pet: cats. She has two: Eva and Bito
Favourite city: Cape Town, South Africa
Hobby: Running. "I like to think I’m artsy but I’m not".
Favourite move: Romantic comedies, specifically Return to me. "I cry every time".
Favourite spot in Abu Dhabi: Saadiyat beach
Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
INDIA SQUAD
Rohit Sharma (captain), Shikhar Dhawan (vice-captain), KL Rahul, Suresh Raina, Manish Pandey, Dinesh Karthik (wicketkeeper), Deepak Hooda, Washington Sundar, Yuzvendra Chahal, Axar Patel, Vijay Shankar, Shardul Thakur, Jaydev Unadkat, Mohammad Siraj and Rishabh Pant (wicketkeeper)
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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