With peace in Ukraine and Gaza elusive, US President Donald Trump needs a diplomatic win. With its major allies devastated by Israeli attacks or overthrown in Syria, struggling with sanctions and energy shortages, Iran too needs a way out. Can an agreement help Tehran and Washington to a durable nuclear accord and a more peaceful and prosperous region?
Most commentary on a possible deal has focused on the implications for Iran’s oil exports. If US sanctions were eased, then Iranian oil exports might rise by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, putting some pressure on oil prices. But more complex, and more interesting, are the wider energy and economic possibilities, and how to combine them with diplomacy.
Of course, big hurdles are still in the way. Iran maintains its right to enrich uranium, while US envoy Steve Witkoff has said, “enrichment enables weaponisation” and “we cannot allow even 1 per cent of an enrichment capability”.
Yet Mr Trump has shown himself willing to overturn Washington’s conventional wisdom and cautious legalism, for bad and good. After a brief meeting with Syria’s new president Ahmad Al Shara, he ordered a swift end to sanctions, a process which dragged out for years in the cases of Iraq and Libya. His recent Gulf visit brought a profusion of announcements of business deals. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also dangled the carrot of economic opportunities for the US.
A durable peace needs to emphasise economic entanglement. From a US standpoint, that would seek to entice Iran from its current dependence on Russia and China. The GCC would be the natural regional partners.
This is not to be naive about the nature of the Iranian regime, its determination to remain in power, its political and ideological objectives. It will probably remain a difficult place to do business: bureaucratic, corrupt, repressive and opaque. Patriotic dual nationals, seeking to revitalise economic and scientific ties, have been imprisoned for long periods on trumped-up charges, such as oil executive Siamak Namazi, finally released in September 2023 after eight years in prison.
We should also be realistic about the US political system, which finds it very hard to honour its promises or stick to a course of action.
But many insiders, even in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have become deeply interested and involved in making money. Why should only China benefit from Iranian oil, the White House may think? There could be a meeting of minds with Mr Trump’s inner circle.
Previous openings purposely excluded US companies. In 1995, Conoco, which operated Dubai’s offshore oilfields, reached a deal to develop the neighbouring Sirri fields on the Iranian side. But president Bill Clinton vetoed their involvement.
After the signature of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015, European oil companies tried to return to Iran. The US continued to shut out its corporations, though. International banks stayed out because the US would not give reassurance over sanctions compliance. Under president Barack Obama, powerful lobbies were determined to destroy the deal, which had no enthusiastic defenders even among its architects, and they succeeded when Mr Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018.
Iran had itself missed its chance, dragging its feet on devising and negotiating its new petroleum contract. This time, both sides need constituencies keen on preserving and building on a reset relationship.
Tehran desperately needs to revive its economy. Oil production has actually mostly recovered from US sanctions, running at about 3.3 million to 3.4 million barrels per day, not far below capacity of 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd. Nearly all sales are to China, and Iran incurs some discounts and costs in exporting through the “dark fleet” of tankers willing to risk sanctions.
After a deal, the country could recover its lost markets in countries such as India, Japan and South Korea, competing with its GCC neighbours and, in India, with Russia. It would regain ready access to frozen funds, and to essential petroleum industry kit which it currently procures through shady and costly channels.
Gas production has been faltering, mainly because of falling pressure at South Pars. This field, the Iranian sector of what Qatar terms the North Field, provides 70 per cent of Iranian gas output. Iran needs to install complex and costly compression platforms, which it cannot easily build at home.
Rampant demand growth because of subsidies has left Iranian industry short of fuel and causes frequent winter interruptions. Iran has burnt more oil in power stations to cope, but still suffers blackouts in both winter and summer. Exports to Iraq have been unreliable, and anyway targeted by US political pressure.
Iran needs a three-fold approach: cutting demand by improving energy efficiency, increasing gas output, and raising prices to consumers, and boosting non-gas power generation.
Subsidy reform and higher prices to consumers should be easier in the context of a reviving economy. For boosting production, GCC national companies could work with international majors such as Shell, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil. This could work especially for shared cross-border fields, if a constructive diplomatic framework can be devised.
Out of Iran’s 93 gigawatts of theoretical electricity generating capacity, the share of solar and wind is a truly feeble 1 gigawatt. The Bushehr nuclear power plant adds another gigawatt. The UAE and Saudi together have eight times this much nuclear, solar and wind, and are building more.
Yet Iran’s high-altitude deserts and windy mountain ridges have tremendous potential for renewable installations. This is a major opportunity for the capital and expertise of GCC companies such as Abu Dhabi’s Masdar and Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power.
The tricky enrichment issue could also become a business opportunity. US, European and other nuclear expertise could help manage a regional consortium to make nuclear fuel safely and transparently, including current or aspiring nuclear power users such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.
Finally, the reintegration of Iran into the regional and global economy would open up enormous interconnectivity. The Caspian, Central Asia, South Asia and the Gulf could be linked by gas pipelines and electricity cables, transmitting and balancing renewable power between three continents.
Too many chances for an Iran-US rapprochement have been missed on all sides since 1979. Military methods and sanctions have been tried extensively, diplomatic efforts somewhat, business not nearly enough. Great risks remain, disappointment and perhaps disaster are still likely. But visible is the sliver of a resolution that would help Iran, the US and the GCC countries to prosper together.
The years Ramadan fell in May
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
The years Ramadan fell in May
The five pillars of Islam
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
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A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Four-day collections of TOH
Day Indian Rs (Dh)
Thursday 500.75 million (25.23m)
Friday 280.25m (14.12m)
Saturday 220.75m (11.21m)
Sunday 170.25m (8.58m)
Total 1.19bn (59.15m)
(Figures in millions, approximate)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
More on Quran memorisation:
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
Titan Sports Academy:
Programmes: Judo, wrestling, kick-boxing, muay thai, taekwondo and various summer camps
Location: Inside Abu Dhabi City Golf Club, Al Mushrif, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Telephone: 971 50 220 0326
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More coverage from the Future Forum
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Read more about the coronavirus
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Why does a queen bee feast only on royal jelly?
Some facts about bees:
The queen bee eats only royal jelly, an extraordinary food created by worker bees so she lives much longer
The life cycle of a worker bee is from 40-60 days
A queen bee lives for 3-5 years
This allows her to lay millions of eggs and allows the continuity of the bee colony
About 20,000 honey bees and one queen populate each hive
Honey is packed with vital vitamins, minerals, enzymes, water and anti-oxidants.
Apart from honey, five other products are royal jelly, the special food bees feed their queen
Pollen is their protein source, a super food that is nutritious, rich in amino acids
Beewax is used to construct the combs. Due to its anti-fungal, anti-bacterial elements, it is used in skin treatments
Propolis, a resin-like material produced by bees is used to make hives. It has natural antibiotic qualities so works to sterilize hive, protects from disease, keeps their home free from germs. Also used to treat sores, infection, warts
Bee venom is used by bees to protect themselves. Has anti-inflammatory properties, sometimes used to relieve conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, nerve and muscle pain
Honey, royal jelly, pollen have health enhancing qualities
The other three products are used for therapeutic purposes
Is beekeeping dangerous?
As long as you deal with bees gently, you will be safe, says Mohammed Al Najeh, who has worked with bees since he was a boy.
“The biggest mistake people make is they panic when they see a bee. They are small but smart creatures. If you move your hand quickly to hit the bees, this is an aggressive action and bees will defend themselves. They can sense the adrenalin in our body. But if we are calm, they are move away.”
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed
Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.
Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.
The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.
One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.
That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.
Switching%20sides
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The BIO
Favourite piece of music: Verdi’s Requiem. It’s awe-inspiring.
Biggest inspiration: My father, as I grew up in a house where music was constantly played on a wind-up gramophone. I had amazing music teachers in primary and secondary school who inspired me to take my music further. They encouraged me to take up music as a profession and I follow in their footsteps, encouraging others to do the same.
Favourite book: Ian McEwan’s Atonement – the ending alone knocked me for six.
Favourite holiday destination: Italy - music and opera is so much part of the life there. I love it.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
The five pillars of Islam
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
