Opec and its main driver, Saudi Arabia, have decisively shifted gears over the last two months, from neutral to forward. The questions are, who are they trying to outrace, from three plausible candidates? And, how successful will they be?
In March, the eight countries in the wider Opec+ grouping adhering to additional voluntary production cuts agreed finally, after months of pauses, to start returning production to the market. This would be gradual, but was particularly important to the UAE, which would see its baseline production target increased by 300,000 barrels a day, about a tenth of current output.
This was perhaps expected. More surprising was last month’s move, when the producers’ subgroup announced it would effectively bundle three monthly increases into one, raising output limits by 411,000 bpd for this month. The Opec+ eight did the same again this month for June levels. A complex schema of compensation cuts per country and per month, intended to make up for past overproduction, means real increases should be less than the headline.
Nevertheless, a more aggressive policy, a willingness to accept lower oil prices for a while, indicates that Opec+ will start regaining market share. At this rate of increase, the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, announced in November 2023, would be fully unwound by about September. Half a million barrels a day of compensation cuts, though, would still be in effect then, and they drag on for some countries as late as next June.
Expected demand growth this year ranges from 730,000 bpd, in the view of the International Energy Agency, to Opec’s forecast of 1.3 million bpd. The IEA predicts production growth outside the Opec+ alliance at 1.3 million bpd. Prices already softened last year, the economic outlook has darkened, so to absorb the Opec+ increases, somebody must lose out.
These moves clearly reflected Riyadh’s frustration over some members not fulfilling their commitments, particularly Kazakhstan and Iraq. But there will be another, unstated, casualty.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry has said it has no plans to cut output in May. Its intended crude oil production of about 1.75 million bpd compares to its compensated target of just 1.37 million bpd. Its extra compensation cuts actually reach a maximum in October before dropping off, so it faces a lengthy adjustment.
Iraq is the other problem member. It is allowed 3.909 million bpd in May, again accounting for compensation. Its March output, according to Opec’s own figures, had dropped a bit on February, but was still over-limit at 3.981 million bpd. Its compensation cuts ease off a bit after June.
The others were close to their allowable levels in March, and their agreed compensation cuts are zero or small. The uncertain impact of sanctions on non-target bound Venezuela, Iran and Russia might take some more oil off the market, but could also restore it depending on the path of Washington’s negotiations with Tehran and Moscow.
How effective will the production increases be in restoring compliance?
Iraq’s big fiscal deficits, fast-growing population, severe infrastructure shortfalls and shaky domestic politics make it the most vulnerable to lower oil prices.
However, it is also the Opec+ member, alongside the UAE, with the biggest realistic production growth plans, which are mostly financed by foreign investment.
Under pressure, it has already improved compliance substantially, cutting about 190,000 bpd so far this year. Its remaining overproduction is not that big, at least on Opec’s own figures. And Baghdad will claim special conditions: particularly, the continuing legal deadlock on exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, and its need for oil to fuel power plants in summer.
Improving Kazakh compliance would now be more helpful. But Astana is in a stronger position than Baghdad. Its sovereign wealth fund, Samruk-Kazyna, holds $81 billion of assets, equivalent to about 30 per cent of gross domestic product. Government debt is not high, fiscal and current account deficits are moderate.
Oil provides less than a third of government revenue. Income is buoyed by Kazakhstan’s strong mining sector for gold and uranium, both metals enjoying high prices. And its higher oil production probably more than compensates it for lower prices.
Kazakhstan’s primary reason for overshooting is the expansion of Tengiz, its main producing field. Production from the even larger Kashagan field is also set to grow, as is third-placed Karachaganak.
All these fields, which yield 70 per cent of Kazakh output, have leading international partners, who make the decisions on output, as do other ventures with Chinese companies. Kazakhstan says older fields cannot easily be cut back without risking permanent losses. These factors limit its ability to comply with Opec+ quotas.
Of course, one might ask why, knowing all this, Astana then signed up to the “voluntary” cuts. It could use government powers to override the various consortia’s production decisions. But recently-appointed Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov told Reuters, “We will act in accordance with national interests with all the ensuing consequences.”
So, Kazakhstan looks neither keen to fall into line, nor under particular economic pressure to do so swiftly. Maybe some Russian arm-twisting might help, as last month, when exports from its pipeline to the Black Sea were briefly interrupted by a Russian regulator’s order. Otherwise, a deal on higher production levels could be sought, but that may just open the floodgates for other Opec+ members with significant unused capacity to demand increases too.
So, if pressuring these two colleagues will not achieve major results, what is the goal of Opec+ in its big target increases?
The group may not be deliberately targeting US oil output. But American shale will be an unavoidable victim of lower oil prices, particularly when compounded by higher costs due to tariffs. Diamondback, one of the biggest operators in the Permian Basin, said “it is likely that US onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter”.
The IEA had predicted US growth at 490,000 bpd this year, so an overall decline would shift market balances significantly – more than bringing all Opec+ members into perfect compliance. Pressuring erring colleagues is a more openly-discussed goal, and a useful side effect. The real pain of the Opec+ boost will be felt not in Astana or Baghdad, but in Houston.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
School counsellors on mental well-being
Schools counsellors in Abu Dhabi have put a number of provisions in place to help support pupils returning to the classroom next week.
Many children will resume in-person lessons for the first time in 10 months and parents previously raised concerns about the long-term effects of distance learning.
Schools leaders and counsellors said extra support will be offered to anyone that needs it. Additionally, heads of years will be on hand to offer advice or coping mechanisms to ease any concerns.
“Anxiety this time round has really spiralled, more so than from the first lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Priya Mitchell, counsellor at The British School Al Khubairat in Abu Dhabi.
“Some have got used to being at home don’t want to go back, while others are desperate to get back.
“We have seen an increase in depressive symptoms, especially with older pupils, and self-harm is starting younger.
“It is worrying and has taught us how important it is that we prioritise mental well-being.”
Ms Mitchell said she was liaising more with heads of year so they can support and offer advice to pupils if the demand is there.
The school will also carry out mental well-being checks so they can pick up on any behavioural patterns and put interventions in place to help pupils.
At Raha International School, the well-being team has provided parents with assessment surveys to see how they can support students at home to transition back to school.
“They have created a Well-being Resource Bank that parents have access to on information on various domains of mental health for students and families,” a team member said.
“Our pastoral team have been working with students to help ease the transition and reduce anxiety that [pupils] may experience after some have been nearly a year off campus.
"Special secondary tutorial classes have also focused on preparing students for their return; going over new guidelines, expectations and daily schedules.”
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S23%20ULTRA
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Representing%20UAE%20overseas
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Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
THE BIO:
Sabri Razouk, 74
Athlete and fitness trainer
Married, father of six
Favourite exercise: Bench press
Must-eat weekly meal: Steak with beans, carrots, broccoli, crust and corn
Power drink: A glass of yoghurt
Role model: Any good man
Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Jawan
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Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Changing visa rules
For decades the UAE has granted two and three year visas to foreign workers, tied to their current employer. Now that's changing.
Last year, the UAE cabinet also approved providing 10-year visas to foreigners with investments in the UAE of at least Dh10 million, if non-real estate assets account for at least 60 per cent of the total. Investors can bring their spouses and children into the country.
It also approved five-year residency to owners of UAE real estate worth at least 5 million dirhams.
The government also said that leading academics, medical doctors, scientists, engineers and star students would be eligible for similar long-term visas, without the need for financial investments in the country.
The first batch - 20 finalists for the Mohammed bin Rashid Medal for Scientific Distinction.- were awarded in January and more are expected to follow.
Barbie
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War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
Honeymoonish
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TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%209
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
