Oil prices have been extremely volatile in recent weeks and could drop further if Opec+ decides to boost supply when it meets early next month, analysts say.
Increased trade war concerns led by US tariffs and the possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran have led to fears about reduced demand and a supply glut.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday on demand concerns amid the ongoing trade tensions between China and the US, the world's two largest economies.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 1.05 per cent lower at $65.17 a barrel at 10.31am UAE time, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down about 1 cent at $61.45 per barrel.
Oil’s quiet ascent since its tariff-induced trough on April 9 “has been stymied” by renewed concerns that Kazakhstan has defied Opec+ by prioritising national production targets over group quota levels, Japanese bank MUFG said on Thursday.
“This growing internal discord within Opec+ comes as oil bulls have been relishing on the recent risk-on mood reflecting easing Fed independence apprehensions, softer US rhetoric on China tariffs and a clearing of short positions in the midst of the first quarter’s earnings season,” it said.
Earlier this month, the producers group decided to add 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, more than the 138,000 bpd initially planned, on expectations of a rise in demand.
The group will hold a meeting on May 5 to decide its output plans for June.
“Brent’s upside should remain capped as long as global trade tensions keep feeding demand-side fears,” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, told The National.
“Oil benchmarks could also sink to fresh four-year lows below $60 per barrel if Opec+ proceeds with yet another bumper-sized production hike in June.”
China uncertainty
The consistent uncertainty surrounding US-China trade tensions over tariffs has been a key driver for oil price volatility.
Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House was considering slashing steep tariffs on Chinese imports – in some cases by more than half – in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Beijing.
US President Donald Trump is also reportedly considering tariff exemptions on car part imports from China, which could support oil prices.
However, the outlook remains bearish for now, analysts said.
“Oil prices face downward pressure as US talks with Iran, US tariffs, rising Opec+ supply projections and lowered oil demand estimates from the International Energy Agency and Opec create the perfect storm for low investor confidence,” Rystad Energy said in a recent note.
Opec this month slashed its oil demand forecast for 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day, mainly due to tariff uncertainty.
The prolonged US-China trade war could cut China's oil demand growth in half this year to 90,000 barrels per day from 180,000 bpd, according to Rystad.
China is the world’s second-largest economy and a leading crude importer.
The progress in US and Iran nuclear talks are also affecting oil markets.
The two countries have concluded three rounds of talks so far and are expected to meet for a fourth round of negotiations this week.
If a deal is reached between the two countries, it could lead to a boost in supply from Iran on possible sanctions relief.
US measures to boost energy security
Meanwhile, the US Department of the Interior is also planning to issue emergency permits to accelerate the development of domestic energy resources including crude oil and critical minerals.
“We are cutting through unnecessary delays to fast-track the development of American energy and critical minerals – resources that are essential to our economy, our military readiness and our global competitiveness,” said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum last week.
“By reducing a multi-year permitting process down to just 28 days, the department will lead with urgency, resolve and a clear focus on strengthening the nation’s energy independence.”
Investment impact
Prolonged low oil prices could also hit investment in the energy sector, according to a report from Wood Mackenzie.
“If operators and the supply chain anticipate a period of prolonged low prices, it would send shockwaves through the industry," said Fraser McKay, the company's head of upstream analysis.
“This near-term uncertainty becomes an investment killer, precisely when the focus should be on potential long-term demand growth.”
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Who is Allegra Stratton?
- Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
- Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
- In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
- The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
- Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
- She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
- Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dunki
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rajkumar%20Hirani%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Taapsee%20Pannu%2C%20Vikram%20Kochhar%20and%20Anil%20Grover%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What went into the film
25 visual effects (VFX) studios
2,150 VFX shots in a film with 2,500 shots
1,000 VFX artists
3,000 technicians
10 Concept artists, 25 3D designers
New sound technology, named 4D SRL
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
The biog:
From: Wimbledon, London, UK
Education: Medical doctor
Hobbies: Travelling, meeting new people and cultures
Favourite animals: All of them
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
TV: World Cup Qualifier 2018 matches will be aired on on OSN Sports HD Cricket channel
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Brief scores:
Day 2
England: 277 & 19-0
West Indies: 154
More from our neighbourhood series:
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
