Western sanctions relief will not bring an immediate return of oil majors to Syria, which exited the country at the onset of the 2011 civil war, and remain wary of US sanctions, low oil prices and continued political instability in the country, analysts say.

Following the ouster of former president Bashar Al Assad in December, the EU, UK and Canada have eased certain sanctions, particularly in energy and transport, to support the new political transition and economic recovery.

However, restrictions remain on people linked to the former regime, chemical weapons and illicit activities, balancing support for change with continued pressure. US sanctions remain largely in place.

“It's a welcoming move and it's necessary, but it's still the initial steps for international oil companies to find a stable ground to return to Syria,” said Aditya Saraswat, Mena research director at Rystad Energy.

The Syrian civil war began in March 2011 when pro-democracy protests, inspired by the Arab Spring protests, were met with violent crackdowns by the Syrian government under the Assad regime.

As the conflict escalated, several countries and international organisations-imposed sanctions on the Syrian government, which often targeted the energy sector, making it difficult or impossible for foreign companies to operate.

The country’s total oil and gas production in 2011 was about 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), which plummeted to about 50,000 boed under government control last year.

“Interest in the Syrian oil and gas sector will mostly be limited to firms that were operating in the country prior to the civil war and maybe smaller companies with a high appetite for risk,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects.

“For most larger international companies, the commercial opportunities in Syria’s upstream will not be attractive enough to outweigh the political and security risks, particularly at current oil prices,” he told The National.

Shell, TotalEnergies, Canadian oil and gas producer Suncor, UK-based Gulf Sands, and India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) were among the companies operating in the country before the civil war.

Gulfsands and ONGC are expected to resume their operations from the point where they previously stopped since they have been consistently mentioning their Syrian assets in their reports, Mr Saraswat told The National.

Gulfsands' core asset, Block 26 in Northeast Syria, has been under force majeure due to UK sanctions. The company has said that it is ready to resume operations as soon as the sanctions are lifted.

Earlier this month, the UK, where Gulfsands is registered as a public registered company, announced the removal of 24 Syrian entities from its sanctions list and the freezing of their assets earlier this month.

Among those removed were the Central Bank of Syria, several petroleum companies, and the national carrier, Syrian Airlines.

Gulfsands did not immediately respond to a query regarding their plan to resume operations in the country.

The UK’s decision came just days after the EU suspended a range of sanctions on Damascus, including restrictions on energy, banking, transport and reconstruction.

US sanctions in focus

A key barrier to developing Syria's oil and gas sector and attracting foreign investment is the US Caesar Act, which imposes broad secondary sanctions on non-US entities involved in reconstruction.

In December, despite the fall of the Assad regime, the Biden administration signed an extension of the Caesar Act for another five years until 2029.

“Energy companies are hesitant to return due to ongoing US sanctions, extensive infrastructure damage, political instability, economic challenges, and regulatory uncertainty,” said Dr Umud Shokri, senior visiting fellow at George Mason University and energy strategist.

“The destruction of energy infrastructure and recent violent clashes in Syria further deter investment, highlighting the fragility of the political situation.”

This month, Syria's pro-government troops launched a large-scale offensive in coastal areas, marked by deadly violence that killed hundreds of civilians, and vowed to continue pursuing remnants of the former Assad regime.

Deal with SDF

On the other hand, tension seems to be tempering between the government in Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls most of North-eastern Syria.

The oil-rich region is crucial to meeting Syria’s energy needs, especially after Iran halted crude shipments to the country last year, which had averaged around 80,000 barrels per day in 2023.

A deal was signed about two weeks ago between the Syrian government and the US-backed SDF to integrate all civil and military institutions in north-east Syria into the Syrian state by the end of the year, including border crossings, the airport, and oil and gasfields.

The “most obvious” short-term impact could be that oil from fields in Deir ez-Zor, Syria’s most oil-rich province currently controlled by the SDF, may be processed at Syrian refineries, lowering the reliance on imported crude feedstock, Mr Bronze said.

The government in Damascus is already receiving more than 15,000 barrels of oil daily and as much as one million cubic metres of natural gas from Kurdish-controlled fields in the north-east, Syrian officials said last month.

Since December, both Syrian refineries – Homs and Baniyas – have struggled to secure feedstock and have undergone forced maintenance.

Russia’s role

Recent media reports and satellite tracking data indicate that Russian diesel shipments have continued to arrive at Syria’s Baniyas port on the Mediterranean Sea.

Experts say that supplying fuel to the energy-starved country will strengthen Moscow’s position in negotiations over its continued military presence.

Russia still hopes to negotiate an agreement to retain some military presence at Hmeimim and the Tartus naval base, its only permanent naval centre in the Mediterranean Sea, Mr Bronze said.

The latest round of US sanctions has hindered Russian diesel sales, leaving cargoes afloat, some of which are being diverted to Syria, he added.

On January 10, the Biden administration introduced harsh sanctions against Russia’s energy industry, which included oil and gas projects, third-country entities supporting Moscow’s energy exports, and “shadow fleet” tankers used to bypass western restrictions.

Syria's current power situation may enable some oil shipments to be redirected there, but with the north-eastern part of the country now opening up, it can largely secure its oil supply domestically, Mr Saraswat said, implying that Russia's future role as Syria's energy provider could be limited.

Bidding rounds

After achieving energy security, developing the oil and gas sector will be a key priority for the new Syrian government as it seeks to rebuild its battered economy.

Analysts suggest that once companies with prior Syrian operations are re-established, the government should initiate new oil and gas bidding rounds, though this process could take several years.

Areas that were previously planned for auction or award, or where companies have relinquished their rights, might be relicensed or awarded as exploration or development contracts, Mr Saraswat said.

However, the Syrian government is still in the early stages of establishing the necessary legal framework, he added.

Mr Bronze said that while the government will focus on honouring existing contracts, “over time, the new government may try to attract new investors, especially if some of the existing operators are reluctant to invest in rejuvenating oil and gasfields”.

“A full licensing round could take years to prepare and might not manage to generate significant interest as Syria has relatively modest undeveloped resources,” he added.

Syria's oil reserves, estimated at 2.5 billion barrels, are significantly smaller than those of major regional producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq.