The share of power generated by low-emissions sources in the UAE grew to 35 per cent last year – up from only 3 per cent in 2019 – driven by expansion in solar and nuclear capacity, the International Energy Agency has said.
Strong annual growth of 29 per cent in solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and 25 per cent in nuclear helped displace thermal generation, which was down by almost 8 per cent annually, the IEA said in its Electricity 2025 report.
“These supply shifts drove down the emission intensity of the power sector by 10 per cent in 2024 and this declining trend is expected to continue with an average 1.5 per cent annually over the 2025-2027 forecast period,” it said.
Solar PV growth will continue at around 15 per cent on average between 2025 and 2027, with its share in the mix of 9 per cent expected to rise to 13 per cent by the end of the forecast period, the IEA said.
Several new renewable projects are supporting growth, with the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai moving into its Phase 6. This should bring Dubai's renewables generation to 4.7 gigawatts by 2026, close to its target of 5.3 gigawatts by 2030.
On Thursday, the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority also invited international developers to submit expressions of interest for a tender to develop the 1,600 megawatt seventh phase of the solar park by March 21.
This phase, which is expandable to 2,000MW, will use solar PV panels and a battery energy storage system with a capacity of 1,000MW for six hours, providing a total storage capacity of 6,000 megawatt hours.
“This will make it one of the world’s largest solar-plus-storage projects,” Dewa said.
The phase will be implemented under the independent power producer model.
The seventh phase is expected to produce 4.5 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, avoiding the burning of more than 36 billion cubic feet of natural gas, Dewa said.
It will increase the solar park's planned production capacity from about 5,000MW to 7,260MW, increasing the share of clean energy in Dubai’s energy mix from 27 per cent to 34 per cent by 2030.
The seventh phase is scheduled to become operational in stages between 2027 and 2029. The solar park’s current production capacity stands at 3,460MW, with an additional 1,200MW under construction.
Abu Dhabi also inaugurated the 2 gigawatt Al Dhafra solar power plant in 2023, which supplies power to 200,000 homes.
In November, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei said the country – which aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 – will initiate “one or two” solar farms a year until the end of the decade.
Speaking at the RAK Energy Summit on Thursday, Mr Al Mazrouei said that “we are seeing probably the highest [energy] demand ever because of the economic growth that we're seeing in the country”.
The UAE government seeks to hit a 2030 target of generating 30 per cent of its energy from clean sources – including renewable energy and nuclear power.
Meanwhile, electricity demand in the country rose by 2.8 per cent in 2024 and is expected to increase at a slightly higher rate of around 3 per cent between 2025-2027 in the country, the IEA said.
Power generation rose to a high of 164 terawatt hours in 2024, of which 40 terawatt hours was generated from nuclear, with the Barakah nuclear power plant reaching its full 5.6 gigawatt capacity.
“This has supported the country's industrial decarbonisation efforts, including heavy industries such as aluminium,” the report said.
Overall, renewable generation in the Middle East is forecast to grow by approximately 14 per cent a year during 2025-2027, with its share rising from 5 per cent to 7 per cent of the total.
Solar PV dominates growth, with its share of renewable generation increasing from around 55 per cent to almost 70 per cent by 2027. “We expect annual average growth of 23 per cent for solar in 2025-2027,” the report said.
Gas-fired generation, the primary source of power in the region, grew by 2.9 per cent last year and is forecast to accelerate to an average annual 5.3 per cent between 2025 and 2027, as further fuel switching from oil to gas takes place in line with government policies, with its share of the electricity mix rising from 68 per cent to 73 per cent.
Electricity demand grew 3.2 per cent in 2024, up from 2.8 per cent in 2023, in large part due to an “exceptionally hot summer season” increasing air conditioning use.
“We expect the region’s growth to continue near this higher level at approximately 3 per cent on average over the 2025-2027 outlook period as economic growth and strong cooling demand continue to support consumption levels,” the report said.
