Syria's electricity sector, long plagued by a cascade of crises – from war-torn infrastructure and fuel shortages, to economic woes and sanctions – faces a daunting path to recovery.
The country, which underwent a regime change after former president Bashar Al Assad was overthrown from power late last year, suffers from severe power shortages, with state-supplied electricity available for only two or three hours a day in most areas.
The country's new President, Ahmed Al Shara, is aiming to increase that to eight hours a day by the end of this month. However, experts say meeting that target may take the new government much longer.
Years of civil war has devastated much of Syria's energy infrastructure, including its power grid and gas refineries. Once an oil exporter, Syria has been unable to export petroleum since 2011 due to stringent international sanctions.
“Syrian infrastructure has sustained damage over the decades, and electricity production has suffered significantly,” Syed Rizvi, energy market analyst at Primary Vision, told The National.
Furthermore, financial sanctions remain in place, creating a hurdle for the foreign investment needed to upgrade and expand the electricity sector, he said.
“While the [government's] intentions might be good, it doesn’t seem possible in the shorter run to get this going.”
Syria’s power generation more than halved to 20.1 gigawatt-hours in 2022, from 46.4 gigawatt-hours in 2010, the year before the civil war started, according to data from the International Energy Agency.
Most of Syria's electricity is generated by thermal power plants using oil and natural gas. The Tishrin hydroelectric plant near Aleppo supplies about 4 per cent of the country's power in normal circumstances.
Due to frequent power cuts, most Syrians rely on generators, raising demand for diesel – a fuel in short supply.
Turkey and Qatar have committed to deploying floating power-supply vessels to provide electricity to Syria, but analysts are sceptical about their ability to resolve the crisis.
“This will not fully solve the power issue of the country, as the extent of damage to the generation and transformation stations and electrical connection lines during the period of the former regime is very large,” said Palash Jain, Middle East oil market consultant at FGE.
Turkey supplies electricity to several areas in northern Syria, particularly those close to the border. This includes cities like Aleppo, which was once Syria's largest and is a major industrial hub.
However, the power supply from those lines has not been consistent in recent years, Mr Jain told The National.
In December, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Ankara could provide electricity to Syria, and help develop its oil and gas resources.
At the time, Mr Bayraktar said Syria's pre-war installed power of 8,500 megawatts had fallen to about 3,500 megawatts.
The ministry did not respond to a request for an update on potential energy co-operation with Damascus.
After the previous government was toppled by Turkish-backed armed groups last year, Ankara is actively seeking to solidify its geopolitical gains. One key area of focus is the energy sector.
“Turkish officials seem to be floating lots of ideas about potential areas of co-operation as part of the effort to maximise political influence and economic ties with the new Syrian government,” Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, a UK-based consultancy, told The National last month.
“But a lot of these ideas will fall by the wayside, including in the energy sector, if they do not have a sufficiently clear economic rationale or face ongoing geopolitical obstacles."
Implications of US withdrawal
Although the end of Iran-backed Assad government is seen as a positive step for Syria's development, the country remains deeply fragmented along sectarian lines.
Frequent clashes have erupted between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are dominated by Kurdish groups and supported by the US. The SDF controls a significant area in the country's north-east, including several key oil fields.
Last month, US President Donald Trump said the US will decide on its troop presence in Syria, dismissing reports of a planned withdrawal.
“If the US does withdraw from the north of Syria, which is entirely likely, Syria’s oil and gas deposits in that part of the country would naturally be expected to come under Damascus’ control," said Dr H.A. Hellyer, a senior fellow in geopolitics and security at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence in London, and the Centre for American Progress in Washington, DC. "As they should, these are sovereign Syrian assets, not the domain of any other force, domestic or foreign."
Even if the Syrian government were to take control of SDF-held territories, that alone might not be enough to attract foreign investment into the country's battered oil and gas industry.
Syria's oil and gas production, which was about 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2011, plummeted to about 50,000 boepd under government control in 2024.
"It is unlikely that the withdrawal of US forces from the country will make it more attractive to foreign investors, unless political stability comes with the intervention of other foreign forces filling the void left by Washington," Francesco Sassi, research fellow at Ricerche Industriali Energetiche in Bologna, told The National.
Fuel shortage looms
A major fuel crisis is looming in Syria as the government struggles to replace Iranian crude imports, which were key to the production of petroleum and diesel.
Last month, Syria's Oil Ministry announced six tenders for the delivery of more than 6 million barrels of crude and oil products to its Mediterranean port of Baniyas. Bids for these tenders closed on January 27.
Syria is seeking to import oil through local intermediaries after its import tenders attracted little interest from major oil traders, a Reuters report said last week, citing trade sources.
Analysts attributed the lack of buyers to concerns about sanctions and doubts regarding the Syrian government's ability to fulfil its payments.
While there are indications that Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey might be willing to provide financial support to the Syrian government, no concrete bids have been made in response to recent Syrian oil tenders, Mr Jain said.
“The loss of crude oil supply will hinder the operation of domestic refineries, resulting in a reduction of domestic production of essential fuels such as gasoline and diesel," he said.
Before the Assad regime toppled, Syria was heavily dependent on Iranian exports, for which it used to pay next to nothing. Iranian crude exports to Syria averaged about 55,000 barrels per day from January to November last year, according to global trade intelligence firm Kpler.
Since December, both Syrian refineries – Homs and Baniyas – have struggled to secure feedstock and have undergone forced maintenance.
State-run Turkish Petroleum told The National there is no official agreement between the Turkish and Syrian governments for supply of crude oil.
Participation by Turkey-based private sector companies in Syria’s energy industry “must comply with Turkish regulations and international legal frameworks, including sanctions and trade policies”, a company representative said.
