It has been a cold, dark winter in Iran. As an energy crisis strikes, the Islamic Republic faces the most challenging time in its history since the end of the war with Iraq in 1988. Tehran looks vulnerable – but there are smarter and stupider paths ahead.
Iran has been struck simultaneously by shortages of gas, oil fuels and electricity. Winter gas shortfalls are not new, but this one is particularly bad. The government has curtailed working hours at offices and schools, shut off street lights and cut gas supplies to industry.
The causes are many and complex, but boil down to a mix of sanctions, mismanagement, subsidies, lack of investment and sabotage. US-led measures against Iran have curbed access to funds and technology to develop new gas resources and alternative energy.
The New York Times reported that Israel sabotaged gas pipelines in Iran in February of last year. Gas shortages were met by burning oil, but that ran down stocks which were not sufficiently replenished ahead of this winter.
The crucial South Pars field shared by Iran and Qatar is the largest gas accumulation in the world and is known to Qatar as the North Field. Iran's part yields 70 per cent of the country's gas output. But as its off-take from the field has risen to become proportionately more than Qatar’s, the gas volume has fallen and the pressure needed to extract the gas has declined.
Qatar has compensated by installing compression systems on its side, but Iran cannot readily access suitable compressors nor manufacture them at home. This could be detrimental to Iran, as a collapse of South Pars production could not be compensated by other fields and would be catastrophic for Iranian electricity and industry.
Some suggest that Iran’s multi-front crisis is an opportunity for US action to weaken or overthrow its government or push it to some kind of diplomatic settlement.
Goldman Sachs thinks stronger sanctions imposed by Donald Trump’s government will moderately push down Iran’s oil exports, by about 300,000 barrels a day by the second quarter. However, since the bank also expects somewhat higher oil prices, the impact on Iran’s oil revenue is almost nothing.
A more extreme scenario cutting a million barrels per day would approximately halve revenue, but Iran survived heavier pressure in 2020. The loss of its ally in Damascus is politically bad news but at least removes a financial black hole from Tehran’s accounts. The US would probably also target Iranian allies in Iraq, an opening for a political reset there but raising risks to the Iraqi economy and its oil exports, which are double those of Iran.
The US would call on the rest of Opec+ to boost output to keep prices moderate. But that’s not a foregone conclusion: Opec was offended in 2018 when Mr Trump abruptly reversed course on sanctions, and Tehran may not react well to others taking market share at its expense.
Of course, some hardliners in the incoming Trump administration see the opportunity to reimpose their policy of “maximum pressure”, or even to launch military action. Iran, having lost its outer line of defence in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, might race for nuclear weapons.
Past outcomes
Supreme leader Ali Khamenei is well capable of weighing the contrasting fates of former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, who gave up nuclear ambitions and was killed in a sewer, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who has pressed ahead and secured a handshake with Mr Trump last time around. It is not surprising that nuclearisation is tempting, sandwiched as Iran is between nuclear-armed near-neighbours in Pakistan and Israel, facing US hostility and not trusting Washington to stick to any deal.
This dangerous brinkmanship could bring a campaign of bombing, cyber attacks and other measures from Israel and/or the US. However immediately successful, that would rally domestic support for the Iranian regime, further erode the US’s international image, and kick off another episode of unsustainable containment and dangerous regional instability. Russia and China would certainly take advantage of a US bogged down again in the Middle East.
A far less solid and domestically popular regime, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, was not overthrown by a catastrophic military defeat followed by more than a decade of intense sanctions. Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro has so far survived one of the worst peacetime economic collapses yet recorded.
Of course, the Iranian ruling system might collapse through revolution or infighting – such things are unpredictable, as we know from Iran’s own revolution in 1979 or the fall of longtime leaders across the Middle East in 2011. But relying on the idea that sanctions or bombing bring favourable political change is not a strategy.
A weakened Iran still has the ability to hurt its neighbours. They have to live with the consequences of bad US policies. And while Washington think tanks complain about an “axis” of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran – they do everything to push these countries together.
Paths to partnership
There is a different road. Iran's defence policy is already discredited, and its confrontational approach has delivered economic malaise. To assure a smooth succession of power, perhaps to his son Mojtaba, the 85 year-old Mr Khamenei might agree to a change of course. Power-brokers in Iran may be open to an opportunity for security and personal profit.
This could take the form of a regional diplomatic initiative to solve Iran’s energy crisis, and integrate it into regional energy and economic networks.
Exploring such a move would have to be blessed by the US, but it would be unlikely to lead. China’s role in some places has not been constructive, as in supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. But in the Middle East, so far, it has been a low-key but responsible actor, certainly much more than Washington or Moscow. Its mediation in the restoration of Saudi-Iran relations in March 2023 was crucial.
Iran’s Gulf neighbours are experts in renewables and water desalination. They are capital-rich and their domestic markets are growing quickly. Meetings with Qatar have apparently yielded some positive information on best practices in managing the North Field. Several other shared oil and gasfields with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia would benefit from joint development.
Iran has enormous potential for solar, wind and geothermal power, so far hardly tapped. It has just 1.2 gigawatts of solar power across its vast territory, compared to more than 5 gigawatts in the UAE. Pakistan, suffering its own power crisis, is estimated to have installed 17 gigawatts of mostly Chinese panels last year.
Seasonal exchanges of gas and electricity between Iran and its neighbours would boost all their economies, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and give an incentive to keep the peace. The third generation of post-revolutionary leadership could reinvent Iran as an independent-minded, often prickly but overall prosperous and constructive regional player, something more like Turkey.
That prospect may be elusive. But giving it a chance is better than yet another cycle of sanctions and bombing. For regime insiders, it offers a safer and more comfortable future. And ordinary Iranians would be delighted at an alternative to hunger, cold and darkness.
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Schedule:
Friday, January 12: Six fourball matches
Saturday, January 13: Six foursome (alternate shot) matches
Sunday, January 14: 12 singles
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Family: wife, four children, 11 grandchildren, 16 great-grandchildren
Reads: Newspapers, historical, religious books and biographies
Education: High school in Thatta, a city now in Pakistan
Regrets: Not completing college in Karachi when universities were shut down following protests by freedom fighters for the British to quit India
Happiness: Work on creative ideas, you will also need ideals to make people happy
SPEC SHEET
Display: 6.8" edge quad-HD dynamic Amoled 2X, Infinity-O, 3088 x 1440, 500ppi, HDR10 , 120Hz
Processor: 4nm Snapdragon 8 Gen 1/Exynos 2200, 8-core
Memory: 8/12GB RAM
Storage: 128/256/512GB/1TB
Platform: Android 12
Main camera: quad 12MP ultra-wide f/2.2, 108MP wide f/1.8, 10MP telephoto f/4.9, 10MP telephoto 2.4; Space Zoom up to 100x, auto HDR, expert RAW
Video: 8K@24fps, 4K@60fps, full-HD@60fps, HD@30fps, super slo-mo@960fps
Front camera: 40MP f/2.2
Battery: 5000mAh, fast wireless charging 2.0 Wireless PowerShare
Connectivity: 5G, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.2, NFC
I/O: USB-C
SIM: single nano, or nano and SIM, nano and nano, eSIM/nano and nano
Colours: burgundy, green, phantom black, phantom white, graphite, sky blue, red
Price: Dh4,699 for 128GB, Dh5,099 for 256GB, Dh5,499 for 512GB; 1TB unavailable in the UAE
The%20specs
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Scotland's team:
15-Sean Maitland, 14-Darcy Graham, 13-Nick Grigg, 12-Sam Johnson, 11-Byron McGuigan, 10-Finn Russell, 9-Ali Price, 8-Magnus Bradbury, 7-Hamish Watson, 6-Sam Skinner, 5-Grant Gilchrist, 4-Ben Toolis, 3-Willem Nel, 2-Stuart McInally (captain), 1-Allan Dell
Replacements: 16-Fraser Brown, 17-Gordon Reid, 18-Simon Berghan, 19-Jonny Gray, 20-Josh Strauss, 21-Greig Laidlaw, 22-Adam Hastings, 23-Chris Harris
Watch live
The National will broadcast live from the IMF on Friday October 13 at 7pm UAE time (3pm GMT) as our Editor-in-Chief Mina Al-Oraibi moderates a panel on how technology can help growth in MENA.
You can find out more here
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
RESULT
Manchester City 1 Sheffield United 0
Man City: Jesus (9')
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadeera%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERabih%20El%20Chaar%20and%20Reem%20Khattar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECleanTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHope%20Ventures%2C%20Rasameel%20Investments%20and%20support%20from%20accelerator%20programmes%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
On the menu
First course
▶ Emirati sea bass tartare Yuzu and labneh mayo, avocado, green herbs, fermented tomato water
▶ The Tale of the Oyster Oyster tartare, Bahraini gum berry pickle
Second course
▶ Local mackerel Sourdough crouton, baharat oil, red radish, zaatar mayo
▶ One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Quail, smoked freekeh, cinnamon cocoa
Third course
▶ Bahraini bouillabaisse Venus clams, local prawns, fishfarm seabream, farro
▶ Lamb 2 ways Braised lamb, crispy lamb chop, bulgur, physalis
Dessert
▶ Lumi Black lemon ice cream, pistachio, pomegranate
▶ Black chocolate bar Dark chocolate, dates, caramel, camel milk ice cream
ASIAN%20RUGBY%20CHAMPIONSHIP%202024
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EResults%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EHong%20Kong%2052-5%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESouth%20Korea%2055-5%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EMalaysia%206-70%20Hong%20Kong%3Cbr%3EUAE%2036-32%20South%20Korea%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%2021%2C%207.30pm%20kick-off%3A%20UAE%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EAt%20The%20Sevens%2C%20Dubai%20(admission%20is%20free).%3Cbr%3ESaturday%3A%20Hong%20Kong%20v%20South%20Korea%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Drivers’ championship standings after Singapore:
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes - 263
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari - 235
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes - 212
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull - 162
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari - 138
6. Sergio Perez, Force India - 68
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
The biog
Place of birth: Kalba
Family: Mother of eight children and has 10 grandchildren
Favourite traditional dish: Al Harees, a slow cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled cracked or coarsely ground wheat mixed with meat or chicken
Favourite book: My early life by Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi, the Ruler of Sharjah
Favourite quote: By Sheikh Zayed, the UAE's Founding Father, “Those who have no past will have no present or future.”
The specs: 2017 GMC Sierra 1500 Denali
Price, base / as tested Dh207,846 / Dh220,000
Engine 6.2L V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque 624Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined 13.5L / 100km
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FIXTURES
All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT) unless stated
Tuesday
Sevilla v Maribor
Spartak Moscow v Liverpool
Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
Napoli v Feyenoord
Besiktas v RB Leipzig
Monaco v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday
Basel v Benfica
CSKA Moscow Manchester United
Paris Saint-Germain v Bayern Munich
Anderlecht v Celtic
Qarabag v Roma (8pm)
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
Juventus v Olympiakos
Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Tentative schedule of 2017/18 Ashes series
1st Test November 23-27, The Gabba, Brisbane
2nd Test December 2-6, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
3rd Test Dcember 14-18, Waca, Perth
4th Test December 26-30, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
5th Test January 4-8, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
'Midnights'
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The%20specs
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UAE squad to face Ireland
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind
Gran Gala del Calcio 2019 winners
Best Player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)
Best Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta)
Best Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Best Goal: Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria vs Napoli)
Best Team: Atalanta
Best XI: Samir Handanovic (Inter); Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli), Joao Cancelo (Juventus*); Miralem Pjanic (Juventus), Josip Ilicic (Atalanta), Nicolo Barella (Cagliari*); Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
Serie B Best Young Player: Sandro Tonali (Brescia)
Best Women’s Goal: Thaisa (Milan vs Juventus)
Best Women’s Player: Manuela Giugliano (Milan)
Best Women’s XI: Laura Giuliani (Milan); Alia Guagni (Fiorentina), Sara Gama (Juventus), Cecilia Salvai (Juventus), Elisa Bartoli (Roma); Aurora Galli (Juventus), Manuela Giugliano (Roma), Valentina Cernoia (Juventus); Valentina Giacinti (Milan), Ilaria Mauro (Fiorentina), Barbara Bonansea (Juventus)
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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What is Genes in Space?
Genes in Space is an annual competition first launched by the UAE Space Agency, The National and Boeing in 2015.
It challenges school pupils to design experiments to be conducted in space and it aims to encourage future talent for the UAE’s fledgling space industry. It is the first of its kind in the UAE and, as well as encouraging talent, it also aims to raise interest and awareness among the general population about space exploration.
