Our energy future is a summation of cycles, secular trends and shocks. Though next year will be no exception, the rhythm of cycles increasingly struggles to be heard above the roar of long-term shifts and the shrieks of surprises.
Cyclicity in energy is created by the intersection of the business cycle and the investment cycle. Energy and mineral projects are typically expensive, long-term, capital-intensive ventures. Deepwater oilfields, liquefied natural gas plants, nuclear power plants or mines for uranium or copper take a decade or more to conceive and construct.
They are typically approved at times of high energy prices, which bring plentiful cash flow to their proponents and urgency to governments. By the time they begin operations, the economic environment may be completely different.
The global economy, meanwhile, runs on its own pulse. Sometimes this runs alongside the energy cycle, as when Chinese growth in the early 2000s met a long period of underinvestment, to drive soaring oil and gas prices. At other times, it collides, as in the 1970s stagflation of high energy bills, inflation and unemployment, or the booming 1990s economy with low energy costs.
Recently, cyclicity has been less pronounced. Since the recovery from the 2008-09 financial crisis, global economic growth has been mediocre but fairly stable, leaving aside the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic and the 2021 rebound.
In the oil and gas business, there has been no fundamental resurgence from the 2016 price crash, again leaving aside the Covid years, then the further shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Oil prices have been unusually stable since late 2022, helped by Opec policy.
The accumulation of Opec spare capacity, and the expected continuing growth in non-Opec production next year, suggests that the Vienna-based organisation has underwritten excessive investment in upstream oil, as it did in the early 1980s and the mid-2000s. The leading lights of Opec may tire of this strategy in 2025, or co-operation may simply break down.
The strong wave of LNG expansion, by contrast, mostly in Qatar and the US, will not arrive in earnest until 2027 or even later. The critical European gas market remains finely balanced, at risk from a cold winter, from windless weather, from further measures against Russian gas, and from climate and human rights policies that turn away suppliers such as Qatar.
So trends will swamp cycles. The key intersecting trends include climate change, the rapid progress of new energy technologies, the rise of electricity-hungry uses such as artificial intelligence, lower international co-operation and trade growth, and spreading economic and demographic maturity.
On the whole, these tend to lower economic growth and energy demand, particularly for oil. With electric vehicles now making up more than half of car sales in China, leading refiner Sinopec predicts a peak for Chinese oil demand in 2027. Though India will pick up some of the slack, that probably means a global plateau is not far behind. US tariffs on Chinese EVs will just push these increasingly cheap and sophisticated machines into other global markets.
Coal use, too, should be declining, but its role as a secure domestic source of energy for China, India and other Asian nations has made it remarkably persistent.
Electricity, though, is the bright spark. Not just AI, but heat pumps, air-conditioning, electric transport and electrified industry will push its use. That is good for renewables, nuclear power and gas.
For all the talk that the energy transition has “failed” or is slowing down, it is actually accelerating in key ways – but this is driven by better economics and technical performance, not by Western government or corporate policies. The GCC in particular is benefiting both at home and abroad from its rapidly-rising renewable capacity.
Though they will not have an impact in 2025, there is also the prospect of breakthroughs in areas such as small nuclear reactors, nuclear fusion, advanced geothermal energy, hydrogen and new battery systems.
Finally, we come to surprises.
Some of the shocks are more predicable than usual, at least in general terms. Most notably, the incoming administration of Donald Trump in the US promises instability. In foreign policy, it looks hawkish on China and Iran, perhaps appeasing Russia.
Mr Trump has already threatened four important global energy players who are traditional US allies: Mexico and Canada, important oil suppliers, with tariffs; Panama, holder of the critical canal waterway; and Greenland, a host of potentially important rare earths and other minerals. He has demanded Europe buy more American oil and gas, which it neither wants to nor can co-ordinate, or face tariffs.
Even if most of these are bluster or negotiating tactics, they raise uncertainty for trade and business. They cut in favour of self-sufficiency, or of regional blocs that can stand against the US, China, Russia or other bullies.
Economically, the combination of tax cuts, tariffs, expulsion of migrants from the US, a curbing of Federal Reserve independence, and grandstanding on Congressional budget talks, promises inflation, economic instability, and a slowdown in growth, or a boom-bust syndrome.
Tighter sanctions on Iran, an effort to capitalise on Tehran’s recent setbacks, and to diminish its influence in Iraq, looks likely. But more of the same will not diminish Iran’s oil exports much: it will take more aggressive action, such as targeting the “shadow fleet” that also carries Russian oil, or going after Chinese buyers. That in turn will heighten tensions with Beijing, at a time that China looks the most predictable and stable of the main international players.
Direct military confrontation between Washington and Iran is the most obvious risk to energy supplies. The latest damage to a subsea Baltic electric cable, likely by a suspect Russian tanker, is a reminder of the continuing energy risks in Europe. These may escalate if Moscow continues to stall on the battlefield and its war economy runs out of steam.
Even these “predictable surprises” can trip us up. Ahead of Covid, the US was ranked as the nation best-prepared to tackle a pandemic. Eight days before Hamas’s attack on Israel, which caused a multi-front war, terrible human suffering, the near-closure of the Red Sea, and arguably the fall of the Assad regime, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan opined that, “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”
In 2025, the big energy surprise might be turmoil in an overlooked geopolitical hotspot such as the Arctic, Central Asia or outer space. It might be a huge natural disaster such as a volcano, earthquake or tsunami, a major climatic deterioration, or an economic crisis emanating from Congress, China or cryptocurrency. Shocks are inevitable. The problem for 2025 is that a conspiracy-minded and uncooperative world order will not handle them well.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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La Mer lowdown
La Mer beach is open from 10am until midnight, daily, and is located in Jumeirah 1, well after Kite Beach. Some restaurants, like Cupagahwa, are open from 8am for breakfast; most others start at noon. At the time of writing, we noticed that signs for Vicolo, an Italian eatery, and Kaftan, a Turkish restaurant, indicated that these two restaurants will be open soon, most likely this month. Parking is available, as well as a Dh100 all-day valet option or a Dh50 valet service if you’re just stopping by for a few hours.
Lewis Hamilton in 2018
Australia 2nd; Bahrain 3rd; China 4th; Azerbaijan 1st; Spain 1st; Monaco 3rd; Canada 5th; France 1st; Austria DNF; Britain 2nd; Germany 1st; Hungary 1st; Belgium 2nd; Italy 1st; Singapore 1st; Russia 1st; Japan 1st; United States 3rd; Mexico 4th
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
The specs: 2018 Mazda CX-5
Price, base / as tested: Dh89,000 / Dh130,000
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 188hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 251Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.1L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The bio
Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.
Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.
Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.
Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs: 2018 Audi R8 V10 RWS
Price: base / as tested: From Dh632,225
Engine: 5.2-litre V10
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 540hp @ 8,250rpm
Torque: 540Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.4L / 100km
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Napoleon
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Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
The specs: 2019 BMW i8 Roadster
Price, base: Dh708,750
Engine: 1.5L three-cylinder petrol, plus 11.6 kWh lithium-ion battery
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power: 374hp (total)
Torque: 570Nm (total)
Fuel economy, combined: 2.0L / 100km
Company profile: buybackbazaar.com
Name: buybackbazaar.com
Started: January 2018
Founder(s): Pishu Ganglani and Ricky Husaini
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech, micro finance
Initial investment: $1 million
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
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