Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.61 million barrels per day in 2024, a slight downwards revision from last month’s forecast of 1.82 million bpd, according to the latest figures released in Opec’s monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
The December forecast reflects a reduction of 210,000 bpd – the largest of the five cuts Opec has made in its monthly reports since August, according to Reuters. In July, Opec had predicted world oil demand to jump by 2.25 million bpd.
The sluggish revision was largely driven by weaker-than-expected demand in the third quarter of 2024, particularly in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Americas, OECD Asia Pacific, China, India and other parts of Asia, the Middle East and Africa, Opec said in its report.
Despite the dip, total global oil demand is forecast to reach 105.5 million bpd in the October-December period, up 1.5 per cent on a quarterly basis, and 103.8 million bpd for the full year, up 1.6 per cent on an annual basis.
For 2025, oil demand growth is forecast at 1.4 million bpd, a slight downwards revision of 90,000 barrels per day. Key drivers of growth include demand for jet fuel, petrol and diesel, supported by strong activity in transport, construction and agriculture, the report said.
Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach an average of 105.3 million bpd for 2025, with fourth-quarter demand expected to rise to 106.9 million bpd.
Opec said robust US economic growth in 2024 is expected to continue into 2025, with healthy economic activity in the first quarter supporting the petrochemical sector.
“US economic activity is expected to be well supported by the services sector, which constitutes some 70 per cent of the US economy. Air travel and driving mobility are expected to remain healthy and support oil demand,” the report said.
After the report’s release, Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, surged 1.75 per cent to $73.45, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, registered a jump of 2.29 per cent to $70.16 at 2pm New York time on Wednesday.
Bank of America, in its energy outlook report last month, said that macro fundamentals suggest markets in 2025 will be oversupplied for oil. The bank expects this oversupply to drive Brent to an average of $65 a barrel next year, down from about $80 so far this year. It predicts WTI at $61 a barrel in 2025.
Last week, Opec+ announced that it has extended its supply cuts until the end of 2026 and postponed planned output increases until April next year.
China to drive oil demand in 2025
China, one of the biggest consumer markets, is expected to remain the main driver of global oil demand. It currently accounts for nearly half of the world's petrochemical demand and ranks as the second-largest consumer of petrochemical feedstock globally, according to Opec.
Petrochemical demand in China is set to receive more support from accelerated infrastructure development and rising consumer demand for cosmetics, household plastics, pharmaceuticals and medical products. China’s petrochemical industry is also preparing for increased demand with plans for capacity expansions in the near term to ensure the country maintains its position as a global leader in petrochemical production.
“GDP growth in China is expected to remain robust, supported partly by the carry-over effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures introduced in September," Opec said. "The industrial sector and manufacturing activity are expected to be well supported as domestic consumption recovers, and demand for exports, particularly from developing countries, continues to expand."
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
more from sholto byrnes
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
About Okadoc
Date started: Okadoc, 2018
Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Healthcare
Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth
Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February
Investors: Undisclosed
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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Specs
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Transgender report
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The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz GLA
Price, base / as tested Dh150,900 / Dh173,600
Engine 2.0L inline four-cylinder
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 211hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 1,200rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
Biography
Favourite Meal: Chicken Caesar salad
Hobbies: Travelling, going to the gym
Inspiration: Father, who was a captain in the UAE army
Favourite read: Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter
Favourite film: The Founder, about the establishment of McDonald's
A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
Score
Third Test, Day 1
New Zealand 229-7 (90 ov)
Pakistan
New Zealand won the toss and elected to bat
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) US$175,000 1,000m
7.05pm: Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions (Dirt) $100,000 1,900m
7.40pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (T) $250,000 1,800m
8.15pm: Handicap (D) $135,000 2,000m
8.50pm: Al Fahidi Fort Group 2 (T) $250,000 1,400m
9.25pm: Handicap (T) $135,000 2,410m.
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Favourite book: ‘The Art of Learning’ by Josh Waitzkin
Favourite film: Marvel movies
Favourite parkour spot in Dubai: Residence towers in Jumeirah Beach Residence
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
'Texas Chainsaw Massacre'
Rating: 1 out of 4
Running time: 81 minutes
Director: David Blue Garcia
Starring: Sarah Yarkin, Elsie Fisher, Mark Burnham
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
The biog
Age: 59
From: Giza Governorate, Egypt
Family: A daughter, two sons and wife
Favourite tree: Ghaf
Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense
Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
While you're here
C Uday Bhaskar: What is India's Indo-Pacific strategy?
Sholto Byrnes: How US and China can get along in Indo-Pacific
Brahma Chellaney: Trump's unpredictability is making China great again
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While you're here
Tahira Yaqoob: Going from desert prince to world leader
James Langton: 150 years of thoughts and reflections
The History Project Team: Key books and archives
On Women's Day
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
Tomorrow 2021
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In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
The specs
Common to all models unless otherwise stated
Engine: 4-cylinder 2-litre T-GDi
0-100kph: 5.3 seconds (Elantra); 5.5 seconds (Kona); 6.1 seconds (Veloster)
Power: 276hp
Torque: 392Nm
Transmission: 6-Speed Manual/ 8-Speed Dual Clutch FWD
Price: TBC
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
Towering concerns
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Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
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Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
Types of fraud
Phishing: Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
* Nada El Sawy
While you're here
Tom Fletcher: How statecraft and summitry will have to adapt
Taylor Luck: Jordanians pin hopes on rebuilding chances in Syria
Gillian Duncan: Progress is slow for women in field of diplomacy
Saturday's results
Women's third round
- 14-Garbine Muguruza Blanco (Spain) beat Sorana Cirstea (Romania) 6-2, 6-2
- Magdalena Rybarikova (Slovakia) beat Lesia Tsurenko (Ukraine) 6-2, 6-1
- 7-Svetlana Kuznetsova (Russia) beat Polona Hercog (Slovenia) 6-4. 6-0
- Coco Vandeweghe (USA) beat Alison Riske (USA) 6-2, 6-4
- 9-Agnieszka Radwanska (Poland) beat 19-Timea Bacsinszky (Switzerland) 3-6, 6-4, 6-1
- Petra Martic (Croatia) beat Zarina Diyas (Kazakhstan) 7-6, 6-1
- Magdalena Rybarikova (Slovakia) beat Lesia Tsurenko (Ukraine) 6-2, 6-1
- 7-Svetlana Kuznetsova (Russia) beat Polona Hercog (Slovenia) 6-4, 6-0
Men's third round
- 13-Grigor Dimitrov (Bulgaria) beat Dudi Sela (Israel) 6-1, 6-1 -- retired
- Sam Queery (United States) beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) 6-2, 3-6, 7-6, 1-6, 7-5
- 6-Milos Raonic (Canada) beat 25-Albert Ramos (Spain) 7-6, 6-4, 7-5
- 10-Alexander Zverev (Germany) beat Sebastian Ofner (Austria) 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
- 11-Tomas Berdych (Czech Republic) beat David Ferrer (Spain) 6-3, 6-4, 6-3
- Adrian Mannarino (France) beat 15-Gael Monfils (France) 7-6, 4-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2
